NBA: The race for mediocrity in the Western Conference

The bottom of the NBA’s Western Conference is in shambles this season, opening up an opportunity for an unlikely team to enter the playoff picture

What is going on in the Western Conference this year?

The race for the 8-seed out West is usually one of the most captivating races, and storylines, to follow throughout the season. For most of this past decade, the teams fighting it out at the bottom were always just a bit overqualified – on par with most 4 and 5-seeds in the East – for the brutal competition they were forced to engage in because of their geographic location.

This season tells a different story. The Eastern Conference has come roaring back, boasting both the quality and depth typically associated with their Western counterparts. We can say with a good level of confidence that the top-end teams in both conferences, along with the ones in the middle, are relatively similar. The Bucks are on a historic pace, hoping to eclipse the 70-win mark and punctuate that achievement with a title in June. (I recall another team struggling with the second part of that equation.)

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Just as we expected at the beginning of the season, the two L.A. teams are firmly in the ruling class of their slightly diminished conference. But look a little closer: No one is shaking in their boots at the thought of playing Denver or Utah in a playoff series. And don’t get me started on Houston. (OK, I’m already rolling.

The Rockets are treading water and now sit just one game ahead of the Thunder, whose success this year can be traced back to the Paul-for-Westbrook trade. But we know they always pick it up in the playoffs. Oh wait.)

If I sat here today and proclaimed that the Eastern challengers – Boston, Miami, Toronto, Philadelphia, and Indiana (now operating at full capacity after the return of Victor Oladipo) – are just as formidable as their counterparts out West, I’m not sure many would bat an eye.

During LeBron’s extended reign over the entire conference, many fans of those in the big-brother conference took issue with the fact that LeBron’s teams could essentially use the first round to ease their way into the playoffs against a significantly inferior opponent. They weren’t exactly wrong either. Throughout the last decade, the 7-seed in the West won an average of 45.9 games, while the same seed in the East won just 37.9 games, a sub-.500 mark. But, as we’ve learned, the scales have balanced this year. For fans of Western Conference supremacy, this is a trying time. But for those just looking for a fun, entertaining race to follow through the end of this current campaign, look no further than the race for the West’s 8-seed!

Let’s tackle this heated race Q-and-A style.

Are the Memphis Grizzlies actually the 8-seed right now? Am I reading that right?

Your eyes aren’t deceiving you. Last summer, the lottery gods shined down on them, allowing them to jump seven spots, all the way up to No. 2. That good fortune is one of the primary reasons they find themselves in this unexpected position. It proved to be the difference between Ja Morant and Rui Hachimura. (I think it’s safe to say Hachimura wouldn’t be the engine behind a playoff hopeful had he landed in Memphis).

These aren’t your father’s Memphis Grizzlies either. Gone are the days of Grit-and-Grind and pass-you-to-death offensive possessions. New coach Taylor Jenkins has installed a run-and-gun system, with Morant at the controls, that has his team playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the league. Much of the credit for their turnaround should go to Jenkins, but it helps to have an end-to-end athletic marvel like the Rookie of the Year favorite.

Let’s talk about him for a quick second. He’s a legitimate superstar-in-waiting; he could’ve made the All-Star team this year and it wouldn’t have been that crazy. He does things seemingly every night that force you to reconsider what is possible on a basketball court. Look down at your phone for even a split-second during a Grizzlies game and you might miss the next great Ja highlight.

Even if he’s a bit ahead of schedule, rookies generally don’t lead winning teams. LeBron went just 35-47 in his rookie season. Even Michael Jordan struggled, to the tune of a 38-44 record.

This is where the Grizzlies deserve a lot of credit. They’ve surrounded Morant with a strong collection of complementary pieces. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a defensive menace who hasn’t yet realized his full potential. Did I mention that he can also shoot 3’s? Believe it; he’s hitting 40.5 percent of his tries from deep this year.

Jonas Valanciunas is enjoying a career year. Brandon Clarke, their other frontcourt mate, is a bouncy athlete bursting with potential. And every team could use guys like Dillon Brooks and Jae Crowder, two tough, no-nonsense role players who are content playing a secondary role behind a star.

The Grizzlies don’t currently have the best point differential among this group of playoff hopefuls. They’re not even second in that category. But somehow they’re sitting comfortably ahead of the Spurs for the coveted 8-seed. This can be explained by their play in the new year, where they’ve posted a plus-6.4 net rating, good for fifth in the entire NBA.

The Spurs are going to figure this thing out, right? I don’t know a world without the Spurs in the playoffs.

You’re not wrong to think that. The last time the Spurs missed out on the chance to compete for the Larry O’Brien trophy was in the 1996-97 season, a whopping 23 years ago! Think about this: There’s a large swath of young Spurs fans blissfully unaware that the season technically ends at the beginning of April. They’ve been living in a basketball paradise for the last two decades.

This year is much, much different. Gregg Popovich usually spends the middle of the season tinkering with lineups and experimenting to see which groups he can ultimately count on when the games start to matter. From now until the end of the season, every game matters for this group.

They’ve been spectacularly average up to this point – 15th in the league in net rating, losing games by an average of 0.8 points. (The commitment to mediocrity is actually quite impressive).

But something funny happened right before Christmas. They miraculously remembered that three is more than two! What a concept. From then until now, they’ve started hoisting it from deep, relative to their norms. Since Dec. 23, they’re attempting 31 3’s per game, up from their season-long mark of 28.3. (From the start of the year up until this season-altering revelation, they were attempting just 26.5 shots from deep per game.)

That difference in attempts might not seem like a lot, but it has mattered. They’re the second most efficient offense over that span, posting a plus-3.9 net rating. But they’ve posted a sub-standard 11-9 record since they started hoisting more from the perimeter. They’ve failed to translate these offensive gains into meaningful wins, mostly because a lot of their issues lie at the other end of the court.

This is an unfamiliar terrain for them. The presence of Tim Duncan, combined with the beginning of Kawhi Leonard’s dominant run, guaranteed a defense that would rank at, or near, the top of the league. In swapping Leonard for DeMar DeRozan, they exchanged an all-world defender for a below-average one. They’re in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency for the season and they’ve remained near the basement during their sterling offensive run, which is why they haven’t been able to translate this new approach into wins.

One positive development: The other prize of the Kawhi trade – Jakob Poeltl – is flashing a lot of promise as a defensive difference-maker. When he’s on the floor, they defend at a level that would place them just a smidge outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency. Their most-used lineups with Poeltl are stifling opponents – an encouraging sign for the stretch run.

Throughout their short Spurs tenure, both Dejounte Murray and Derrick White have proven their worth on the defensive end. If Poeltl can keep this up, and those two can limit penetration on the perimeter, they’ve got a real chance to unseat the Grizzlies for that last spot.

I still don’t understand. Both these teams have zero All-Star participants, while Damian Lillard and Devin Booker are staring up at them in the standings. How is that possible?

Let’s get this out of the way first: Devin Booker absolutely should have been selected for his first All-Star game. He’s shooting above 50 percent from the field while pacing his team in shot attempts by a decent margin. Among guards with a usage rate north of 29 percent, Booker is the only one who is making more than half of his shots. That’s outstanding efficiency and he was snubbed. That is all.

These teams paint two entirely different pictures. Phoenix’s management and fanbase should be ecstatic sitting at 20-28, considering their recent history, as we inch toward the all-star break, while Portland can’t be too happy about being on the outskirts of the playoff picture after a Western Conference Finals appearance just a year ago. It speaks to expectations. No one had any for the Suns entering the season, seeing as they’ve served as the resident punching bag for the top teams in the West for a full decade now. The Blazers, with their potent backcourt, was expected by most to return to the playoffs, at the very least.

But it’s been a surprisingly rough year so far in the Pacific Northwest. Damian Lillard is up to his usual tricks – 29 points, 4.3 rebounds, and a career-high 7.8 assists on 46/39/89 splits – but the rest of the roster hasn’t been able to hold up their end of the bargain. C.J. McCollum’s numbers are in line with his career norms. He’s not really the problem here.

Outside of these two, there just aren’t many threats on this roster. In the offseason, they exchanged their starting wing duo of Al-Farouq Aminu and Moe Harkless for Kent Bazemore and…Mario Hezonja (the Croatian J.R. Smith!). Hezonja started out the year so horribly that they chose to rescue Melo from basketball purgatory. Melo has been fine since coming aboard (37% on 3’s is a welcome sight), but his game hasn’t really changed at all; he still struggles mightily on the defensive end.

Despite their collective offensive ineptitude from outside in the playoffs, the good thing about Aminu and Harkless was their malleability. They could hold up in most lineup combinations because of their ability to defend at a high level and take the pressure off Dame and C.J. on that end. Bazemore, on the other hand, didn’t even make it to February. He was shipped to Sacramento in a move that was made almost exclusively so that Portland could trim some salary to avoid paying another exorbitant luxury tax bill.

Another crucial change from last season’s team is the presence of Hassan Whiteside. While the Blazers did need someone to fill in for Jusuf Nurkic after his gruesome leg injury last spring, I’m not sure Whiteside was the right man for the job. (This is where the Zack Collins injury has really hurt them.) He doesn’t really play winning basketball and is too often consumed by his own numbers. (His block hunting is well-documented). Lest we forget his famous postgame interview four years ago when, after logging a triple-double, he admitted that his primary motivation was to improve his NBA2K rating.

Lillard is doing everything in his power to will this team to a playoff berth, but as we’ve learned this year, he can only take them so far without a capable supporting cast. To say that this group has struggled without their star point guard on the floor would be a massive understatement.

When Lillard’s in the game, they boast an offensive efficiency that would rank second in the league, but when he takes a rest, they plummet to last, below the offensive juggernauts in Golden State and New York.

The Suns, conversely, have reason to be optimistic. They have the best point differential among this group and have played the vast majority of the season without their second-best player in Deandre Ayton. Booker’s offensive brilliance has been discussed ad-nauseam, along with his less-than-stellar defensive reputation. But he hasn’t been that bad on that end this year!

With him on the court, the Suns’ defensive rating is in line with their season-long numbers. Booker doesn’t need to excel defensively to really propel his team to new heights. If he’s even passable on that end, the Suns should be thrilled.

It also appears they’re starting to figure out this whole draft thing! After years of wasting high draft picks (take a bow, Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender), they’ve assembled a fun group of youngsters. Mikal Bridges is making a serious difference on the defensive end. I really think he could drag his fingertips on the ground while standing up; the guy’s arms are freakishly long and they are everywhere. Cam Johnson isn’t so young – already 23 as a rookie – but he’s done exactly what draft analysts said he would: shoot from deep with accuracy and open up the floor.

He’s hitting almost 40 percent of his 3’s so far this year, and already has one of the smoothest strokes in the entire association.

The main reason for optimism in the dessert lies with the Booker/Ayton pairing. Ayton’s return to the lineup has been a real boon for Booker. When the two of them share the floor, the Suns have posted a plus-16 net rating. Plus-16! That would be tops in the league by a decent margin. I think they have as good a chance as any of these teams to snare that highly coveted 8-seed.

So that’s it, right?

Not so fast, my friend.

Wait, this is more than a four-horse race?

The fifth horse just happens to be the team that possesses a once-in-a-generation talent in Zion Williamson. Yes, the Pelicans do have the steepest hill to climb, as they currently sit five games back of the Grizzlies, but Williamson’s return to the lineup should prove to be a game-changing addition for this fun, young group.

Zion is essentially a trade deadline addition for the Pelicans. While the rest of the league will be scouring the market for upgrades in the coming week, the Pelicans brass can sleep easy knowing that they’re likely adding the biggest difference-maker to their lineup (both in terms of impact and actual size). This is why it’s hard to draw any conclusions from their performance over the first three months of this season. This team will be completely different with the inclusion of Williamson.

It helps that they won’t be asking him to shoulder a sizable offensive load upon his return. Brandon Ingram is firmly entrenched in the Most Improved Player conversation, having evolved into an All-Star thanks to an improved shooting touch – 40.3 percent from deep, up from 33 percent last season – and noticeable growth as a ball-handler and distributor. There are times when I feel sorry for defenders tasked with stopping his forays into the paint. Now that defenders have to respect his outside shot, Ingram can leverage that to get an extra step when attacking the rim. Even if his defender stays in front all the way into the paint, Ingram can use his comically long arms to maneuver around him for a creative finish.

Jrue Holiday is also still around, and he’s doing Jrue Holiday things, which entails playing All-NBA defense with good-enough shooting splits. There’s also a ferocity to Holiday’s game. When he recognizes a smaller defender guarding him, he’ll bury his head into that guy’s chest on a drive and end up under the basket with an easy bucket, while his defender will sometimes end up in the first row.

It’s somewhat terrifying to think about the different lineup combinations that Zion unlocks. They can dot the perimeter around an Ingram-Zion pick-and-roll with credible 3-point shooters in J.J. Redick, Josh Hart, E’Twaun Moore and the rejuvenated Lonzo Ball (up to 35% from long range).

Defensively, they could prove to be just as nightmarish. Ball and Holiday can overwhelm opposing ball-handlers, while Ingram can use his length to swallow them up before they can even reach the paint. Throw Derrick Favors and Williamson in there and you’ve got the blueprint for a ferocious unit on that end. It’s early in his career, but Zion certainly appears to have the rare ability to both protect the rim and switch onto smaller, quicker guards without conceding an advantage. If you have a big man that can do that, it creates new possibilities.

It’s hard to really glean anything from Zion’s short stint in the pros so far. But – small sample size alert! – their new starting group – Holiday, Ball, Ingram, Williamson and Favors – is blitzing opponents, posting a plus-17 net rating in 44 minutes thus far.

They may have the furthest to go, but the Pelicans aren’t leaving this race anytime soon. Their pieces seem to complement each other perfectly. If Williamson can stay healthy, and continue doing what he’s doing, he might be able to change the rookies-don’t-win-games narrative.

So who’s it going to be?

I don’t really feel 100 percent confident about any of these teams.

After all that you’re not even going to make a pick?

Relax, I’m getting to it.

I think we can rule out the Blazers right off the bat. Their slow start appears to be too much to overcome, not to mention their putrid bench. The Spurs are interesting, and they certainly have the pedigree, but they spent the first two months of the season stubbornly refusing to adhere to modern basketball principles, creating a hole for themselves that won’t be easy to climb out of without a substantial improvement on defense.

Out of all the players mentioned above, I probably like Devin Booker the most as an individual talent. But, reflexively, I just don’t really trust the Suns. I know it sounds a little foolish, and that there’s no empirical evidence to support this stance, but we’ve watched this organization fail year after year since the departure of their franchise icon, Steve Nash. They should feel good knowing they’re laying a good foundation with Booker, Ayton and their collection of young guys. Their time is coming, just not this year.

That leaves us with the incumbent Grizzlies and the young, upstart Pelicans, who have the most difficult task ahead in trying to erase a five-game deficit. But that journey becomes a little easier when we take into account each team’s remaining strength of schedule. The Pelicans play the fourth-easiest schedule the rest of the way, while the Grizzlies have to go up against the second-hardest.

The Grizzlies are way ahead of schedule, functionally using this season to announce to the rest of the West that they’ll be a tough out for years to come. The Pelicans, on the other hand, had playoff aspirations at the beginning of this season. They brought in a veteran presence in Favors, hoping to shore up their defense in anticipation of a playoff run. With Williamson back in the fold, I think they certainly have the talent to climb back into the playoff picture. The presence of veterans like Redick, Favors and Holiday, who have made numerous trips to the postseason, is just an added bonus.

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Did I mention who they’d likely play should they nab this 8-seed? Pelicans fans have been waiting for a chance to stick it to Anthony Davis ever since his unceremonious exit over the summer. I think they’ll at least get the opportunity.

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