NBA Draft: Profiling Anthony Edwards; the No. 1 overall pick?

Taking a closer look at Anthony Edwards, the prospect many believe to be drafted No. 1 overall in the upcoming 2020 NBA Draft.

Watch Anthony Edwards play, and just a few minutes in, you’ll realize why so many scouts are salivating about his NBA future. He’s a physically imposing two-guard who can score from all areas of the floor. Add in the fact that he’s one of the youngest players in the draft (turns 19 on August 5), and you can see why Edwards was a consensus top-five recruit and currently at the top of most big boards.

So how will his game translate to the NBA level?

I came into this expecting Anthony Edwards to be your typical toolsy wing with limited instincts and skill-level, but that isn’t really the case. He’s a very willing passer who can make all the structured reads in the offense. In this pick-and-roll, he slips a pass to the rolling big when Florida puts two on the ball. He’s at his best threading nifty drop-off and wrap-around passes in the lane.

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Finding open shooters is Edwards’ one blind spot, he can get tunnel vision at times. As with any young prospect, decision-making can be hesitant and spotty. Edwards may never blow you away with his vision, but play-making shouldn’t ever be a weakness in his game.

His handle is adequate for a two-guard. I don’t see it hindering his entire offensive attack a la Andrew Wiggins. That said, Edwards will need to tighten it up drastically if he wants to be a lead guard in the league. His ball-handling looks good when can size up his man one-on-one higher out on the floor. He even flashes a Hardenian type of cadence with some of his dribble-moves. It is when he finds himself in tighter corridors – situations that will arise in pick-and-rolls all the time in the NBA – that it rears its ugly head.

On this possession, Edwards should keep the ball low with a quick right-to-left tap-dribble so that he can split the defenders. Instead, he keeps it in his right hand and turns it over amidst the pressure.

The most glaring aspect of Anthony Edwards’ statistical profile from Georgia is his 3-point percentage: 29.4 percent. Oftentimes being guarded from deep (shooting gravity) is just as important as converting them. With the types of attempts he gets off – highly contested catch-and-shoots, off the bounce pull-ups and step-backs – the question is not whether he’ll be a shot-taker, but a shot-maker.

The odd thing about Edwards is that he looks far more comfortable shooting off-the-dribble than he does spotting-up. It’s a lot smoother and he gets much more elevation. On catch-and-shoots, nearly all of his misses are short, he holds the ball in front of his face, doesn’t use his legs as much, and lands with his right foot in front of his body.

Projecting how good a player’s jump shot will turn out to be is perhaps the most difficult part of NBA Draft analysis. The list of guys who made inexplicable improvements to their jumper is just as long as the list of failed development projects. Since he appears to rely more on rhythm than natural feel/touch, I feel confident in saying that Edwards will never be a knock-down shooter. On the other hand, his free-throw percentage (77.2 percent) and AAU stats indicate that the 29.4 percent clip as a freshman undersells his true ability level. Lousy shooters won’t even venture to take these kinds of shots (unless you are Marcus Smart).

I see Edwards becoming a mid-30s percentage 3-point shooter on a high volume, which is still valuable in the NBA.

Combine Anthony Edwards’ physical gifts with all these skills discussed above, and you’d call him the no-brainer first overall pick. However, it doesn’t all quite add up. Despite his immense frame, he rarely exerts a great deal of force (particularly on the defensive end). This is unacceptable for somebody with his size/strength. It’s the plays like these that make the frequent lapses so frustrating with Edwards. With his attributes, he should be dominating the floor-game. Instead, he doesn’t really run end-to-end that hard, which is why I don’t see the Dwyane Wade or Victor Oladipo comparisons.

I believe that a major part of this is Edwards’ lack of lateral quickness. He struggles to move his feet and stay in front of polished ball-handlers.

His ability to effectively closeout on shooters is practically nonexistent. He settles for desperate reaches and doesn’t usually get back into the play once he’s beaten. On offense, Edwards has the strength and burst to blow by the defender once he gets his shoulder past him, but his lack of elite side-to-side wiggle/shake can hamper him at times. This also partly explains the settling for so many outside jumpers (and thus the low free-throw rate).

Edwards will be on the most explosive guards the minute he steps into the league. When he has the space to load up he’s a breathtaking two-footed leaper. But overall, his finishing at the rim leaves a little to be desired because his bounce off one-foot isn’t as dynamic. I anticipate this to get better as he gains more experience in the NBA, but I wouldn’t be shocked if his field goal percentage from 0-3 feet ends up being a bit lower than you’d expect throughout his career (like his common player comparison in Donovan Mitchell).

Another disappointing aspect of Anthony Edwards’ game is his off-ball play. He plays similar to James Harden in that it looks like he’s trying to minimize his movement on both ends of the floor. There are far too many possessions where he just stands by half-court when he’s not involved in the action. And on defense, he doesn’t try to fit through screens, instead almost always calling for the switch. This would put the Bulldogs in compromising positions time and time again. Again, another stark contrast in effort sequence to sequence.

All these plays make me question his motor/competitiveness. Effort is something that shouldn’t be this volatile. You either have or don’t have that innate passion inside of you. If Edwards’ fire doesn’t run hot, as it seems on film, then it’s hard to imagine his overall impact on winning transcending the box-score stats.

Here’s another sequence that perfectly epitomizes the Anthony Edwards experience.

He throws down a ferocious dunk, doesn’t bother to guard a last-second attempt by Kentucky on the other end, and then still hypes up the crowd anyway after the shot goes in (related: Georgia ended up losing the game). Edwards seems like a good kid, just a bit immature, which is totally understandable at his age. Many of his tendencies are troubling, but at the same time, you can’t ignore the situation that he came in to: hometown kid, most prized recruit in the history of the program, poor supporting cast without much leadership (9 freshmen to 3 seniors). Edwards could just be another cautionary tale for one-and-dones going to bad college teams. Put a ton of stock into these maddening habits at your own peril.

Taking all of this information into account, how good will Anthony Edwards will in the NBA?

I see the reasonable best-case scenario for him is winding up as a Donovan Mitchell-type player. Not necessarily uber-efficient, but makes enough tough shots to be a good No. 1 perimeter option. He’s also much taller than Mitchell, so perhaps he will be able to put more pressure on the rim than him. How he progresses defensively will greatly depend on the situation he lands in. If he’s thrust into a situation where minutes are handed to him (Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland), then his current bad habits will likely be reinforced. Or maybe he turns into a multi-positioned defensive monster should he find himself in the right culture with discipline and accountability.

A reasonable downside scenario for Anthony Edwards is that he never amounts to more than a third guard. Based on the way he plays, it seems clear that he fancies himself as a ball-dominant/high-usage player. If Edwards never pieces together his combination of tools and skill into anything special, I don’t see him having the mentality to fit in as a role player on a good team (like fellow Bulldog alum Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has with the Lakers). Worst-case, he becomes a scoring guard off-the-bench who closes some games, but ultimately doesn’t impact winning that much (think Jeremy Lamb or Tim Hardaway Jr. before playing with Luka).

I lean closer towards the former set of outcomes rather than the latter. With Edwards’ age and relative lack of high basketball experience, there’s good reason to believe that more untapped potential lies than what meets the eye. In a normal draft, I would probably have him ranked in the 5-8 range (good to above-average starter). With the 2020 Draft looking like a dud, I wouldn’t be opposed to considering him No. 1 overall.