Cleveland Cavaliers: The case for Collin Sexton in 2019-20

Improved vision

Upon entering the NBA, critiques about Sexton hovered around his questionable playmaking ability at the point guard spot. His role as a scorer in the pick-and-roll (as a single example) didn’t come with many worries, but his role as a passer in the same situations came with many more questions.

He often had tunnel vision on his way to the basket, and it was clear he was a score-first point guard (and perhaps even a score-first, score-second point guard). If it weren’t for his short stature and high dribble rate he’d probably be considered more of a shooting guard prospect ahead of the NBA draft. That narrative never left him during his rookie year for the Cavs either.

Not to suggest that narrative stuck around for no good reason; Sexton was not a phenomenal passer, nor was he really an acceptable one, as Cleveland’s starting point guard in 2018-19. He averaged a very “eh” three assists per game and 2.4 turnovers per game as a rookie. Now, in my opinion, a high amount of turnovers can be forgiven with a young point guard (it’s quite the adjustment to make, given the speed of the game), but you’d still like to see a higher amount of assists considering how often Sexton had the ball as a rookie (25.2 percent usage rating).

His rookie assists and usage numbers were similar to that of a shooting guard, like CJ McCollum.

Collin Sexton 2018-19:

• 3.0 APG
• 25.2% USG

CJ McCollum 2018-19:

• 3.0 APG
• 25.5% USG

The difference I’ll pick to highlight between the two (because there are evidently plenty of other differences that they have) is the fact that McCollum played/plays second fiddle for the Portland Trail Blazers, meanwhile, Sexton was/is Cleveland’s driving force on offense. For Sexton to work as the gas pedal for the Cavs, his vision would need to improve.

It’s very similar to the limitations that fans point out in the games of Jordan Clarkson and Austin Rivers (though Sexton certainly has a better scoring pedigree than both; I think that’s fair to say). Like Clarkson and Rivers, Sexton’s role as a point guard would be limited if his playmaking were not to improve.

And upon first glance – on paper –  it seems as if Sexton made no playmaking advances in 2020. His assists per game remained stagnant at three and his turnovers went up to 2.4 per game. If you watched an early Cavs game from this season your opinion on Sexton would probably not change. “Cool, he’s making more shots! But he’s still ignoring the four other players that he’s sharing the court with” would probably be your very fair reaction to seeing an early-season Sexton.

If you caught any of Sexton’s later games though, you’d probably come to a different solution. He looked much more like a point guard in his last 15 or so games. Per Cleaning the Glass, his average assist rate (a rolling average of how many Cavalier made shots he assisted on) essentially doubled from January to March (about 10 percent in January to about 20 percent in March).

That progression could be seen vividly in his last 15 games:

Sexton’s last 15 games: 

• 4.3 assists per game
• 19 percent assist rate

Sexton’s entire 2019-20:

• 3.0 assists per game
• 14.6 percent assist rate

Sexton hasn’t had a one assist game since January 14th; heck, since January even two assist and three assist games have become slight rarities (he’s had more than three assists in 15 out of his past 24 games since January 17th). He started listening to the critics; Sexton was on his way to being a hub for offensive production at the tail end of the 2020 season.

On some possessions, he would blow by his defender off a cross, cut to the free-throw line area – where he would normally launch up a shot of his own – but instead, he would attack help defenders and kick it out to an open teammate on the perimeter (sometimes he’d even hit help defenders with a shot fake).

On other possessions, he’d make defenders pay in the pick-and-roll. He’s such a threat in that role that defenders are forced to him when he uses a pick. Rather than forcing a shot (like he would at the start of the year), you could see Sexton actually navigate his surroundings and consider other options; like dumping it to his roll man or kicking it out to a shooter.

His quick burst of the dribble and speedrunning around picks allow him to create these occasions often; they’re like half-court “power play” possessions:

"“a situation during a play in which there are more offensive players than defenders in play, where at least one defender is behind the play”"

This fresh new approach from Sexton is still just that: fresh. He still has lapses where he forgets he has teammates with him on the floor, and he doesn’t have any advanced playmaking quirks in his bag quite yet (like advanced-read skip passes). That being said he’s still already made loads of respectable progress as a playmaker; the proof is in the stats.

According to Synergy Sports, whenever Sexton passes out of pick-and-roll situations (whether it be to his roll man or a camping shooter), he generates 1.086 points per possession. To put that in perspective, that’s on par with the likes of Kyle Lowry (1.078) and James Harden (1.087). Now Sexton obviously does this at a lesser frequency, but we can expect that to increase with times; we also must consider Sexton’s weaker supporting cast around him.

This isn’t meant to suggest Sexton is the same kind of impact-passer as Lowry and Harden are, it’s to illustrates that he’s improving. His ability to create offense is anything but a lost cause at this point. Even in just his second year in the league, he is making strides as a passer; one can assume that progression will only continue once he takes the floor again. Unfortunately, though, Sexton could evolve into the ultimate scoring-playmaking hybrid yet still be picked apart by fans; they’d go straight for his defense. But are they justified in doing so?