NBA Draft: Breaking down Cole Anthony as a prospect in the 2020 class

Breaking down Cole Anthony as a prospect in the 2020 NBA Draft now that he has officially declared to make the move to the next level.

Cole Anthony grabbed the country’s attention in his first game as a North Carolina Tar Heel, setting a school record for most points in a freshman debut. This ended up being the high watermark for both Anthony and North Carolina in a season that turned out to be arguably the worst team of Roy Williams’ coaching career.

It’s easy to saddle much of the blame on Cole Anthony. After the brilliant performance in the Notre Dame game, he failed to shoot 50 percent from the field in 15 consecutive games. Knee surgery to address a partially torn meniscus cost him a third of Carolina’s season. With Anthony’s draft stock in a downturn, is there still hope for him to become a valuable NBA player?

One thing that can never be questioned about Cole Anthony is his effort level. It can be flying in to challenge a shot, grabbing a loose ball, stepping in to take a charge, or tussling down low with a big guy; Anthony will always be the first to sacrifice his body for the team. He’ll usually pick up his man near halfcourt and work to scamper around screens (whether he’s actually an effective on-ball defender is a different question). He’s also one of the better defensive rebounders for his position.

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This intensity seeps into the offensive end as well, particularly in transition. You can tell that Cole Anthony has always thrived in a fast-paced environment. He will generally look to push the ball even when the advantage isn’t apparent. Some of his best passes this year were of the hit-ahead variety to teammates streaking down the floor.

Having this type of mentality is unique, especially for someone with Cole Anthony’s pedigree and fame. When you mix North Carolina’s disappointing season with some of his own frustrating tendencies on offense, it would’ve been easy to imagine the rest of the team resenting him (*cough*Dennis Smith Jr.*cough*). Instead, they all seemed to rally around him, which speaks to the motor/competitiveness that Anthony brings to the table. Don’t forget that he could have decided to pack it in for the year following the knee injury, but he fought hard to return just eight weeks later.

These intangibles are great and all, but you can’t draft anyone that high just because they play hard (otherwise Patrick Beverley wouldn’t have gone in the second round). How does Cole Anthony look with the ball in his hands?

Any franchise seeking its savior at point guard should look elsewhere. It may come as a bit of a shock to some, considering he was billed as a dynamic scorer throughout his amateur career, but I don’t think he has much star upside. He just doesn’t beat his own man consistently enough to break down defenses. Relying on shots like these is a surefire way to stay inefficient. I see three main limiting factors that put a hard ceiling on Cole Anthony’s potential as a lead guard.

First off, his bag of moves and tricks is much barer than most NBA point guards. He rarely sets up the defense, and can’t improvise with counters when his initial drive gets cut off. Possessions will often go to die because Anthony has no sense of how to change speeds in the pick-and-roll. Time and time again he’ll kick the ball out early, instead of poking and prodding at the rotating defense.

Another issue for Anthony is that he doesn’t have any feel for throwing pocket passes to a flashing big man, so he usually lobs high, looping rainbows that stifle any kind of offensive advantage. His understanding of angles seems poor, not just in pick-and-rolls, but also in one-on-one situations.

Secondly, and related to the first point, Cole Anthony is a very limited ball-handler at this moment. Young players driving into tight spaces with reckless abandon like this is a pretty common sight, but with Anthony, a lot of it is about the basics. Windows will open and close before he can get a grip on the rock, and at times it looks like he’s playing against himself. Even Anthony’s more creative aspirations are often dashed by this appallingly lousy handle.

This is all fine. Guard prospects with the polish of a Kyrie Irving or a Trae Young only surface once in a blue moon. But when you combine this rudimentary skill level with his lacking physical profile, suddenly Anthony’s star grows dimmer and dimmer. Highlight reels and mixtapes are bound to oversell Cole Anthony’s athleticism. He’s fast in the open floor and can get up for some dunks with a full head of steam. But it doesn’t carry over to most game situations.

Mike Prada of SB Nation introduced the concept of a “final step” to describe how Luka Doncic consistently gets by defenders. Anthony has sort of the opposite of that, almost like he’s swimming against an ocean tide. He’ll get a half step on his man, but then not quite have the burst to accelerate past them. And when Anthony does manage to find himself in the paint, his modest size and explosiveness make it incredibly difficult to navigate traffic and finish amongst the trees – just getting a clean look off feels like a great ordeal.

As you can see, there are many reasons to be skeptical about Cole Anthony’s pro future. And with his advanced age for a one-and-done freshman (turns 20 on May 15, which is older than Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett), it’s possible that he has less room for growth than some of his contemporaries. That said, with the NBA currently more perimeter-oriented than ever, there will always still be a place in the league for players like Anthony.

I believe that Anthony will be an effective complementary offensive player in time. It starts with the jump shot. He’ll have some ugly misses when rushed– thanks to a pronounced ball-dip and a wide release in front of his face. But the jumper otherwise looks good when he has time to set his feet and get squared to the rim. Anthony showed promise as an off-ball threat running around screens. He even has a Steph-like penchant for giving it up and relocating back to the arc. He should be more than capable of shouldering a secondary play-making load to go along with this.

Another swing-piece for Cole Anthony: defensive versatility. Given his remarkable intensity and passion for the game that we discussed earlier, I don’t see him ending up as a liability on that end. However, Anthony will have to be more than just a one-positioned defender if he wants to play meaningful minutes in games that matter. That’s because he’ll likely need to be in lineups that include one or two other shot-creators. There is potential for this to go both ways.

Anthony definitely holds up better against forwards and centers than most guys with his height/reach. Some of the *wow* plays that he makes are truly remarkable. Among the 111 guards drafted in the first round since 2010, he ranks 16th in defensive rebounding rate in the player’s final collegiate season. If Josh Hart can pass as a 4 in the NBA, then why can’t Cole Anthony slide up a position or two?

On the other hand, it’s unfair to expect anyone with a 6-foot-5 wingspan to credibly hang with the athletic marvels in the league. These limitations even materialized at the college level. In the first Duke game, for example, Tre Jones continuously pulled up over him like he wasn’t even there. When closing out to shooters, Anthony was mostly unable to bother them enough to force misses. So taking all of this into account, what does Cole Anthony’s NBA future look like?

Keep in mind that UNC was close to the worst possible situation for him. They lost an elite shooter in Cameron Johnson as well as other outside threats in Kenny Williams and Luke Maye from last season. As a result, coach Williams had to throw raw, athletic unknowns out there who mostly disappointed. On the rare occasion that Anthony could run any semblance of a spread pick-and-roll, it actually looked pretty good.

But most of the time he had no space to operate with. Watch here as Duke comfortably puts two on the ball because the other Tar Heels are so close together on the court. The lack of any kind of continuity was quite evident.

And his teammates didn’t exactly make life easier on him. Perhaps Anthony pops more on film athletically without the knee injury (with the way he exerts himself though, I’d be a bit wary about his chances of staying healthy long-term).

Cole Anthony projects as a solid role player, someone who should be selected closer to the end of the lottery than the top 5. I see him panning out into a third/fourth guard on a good team – can function in a multitude of lineups, good enough to start in a pinch, but ultimately overtaxed as a lead ball-handler. Terry Rozier or Austin Rivers may be good analogs for predicting how Anthony’s career unfolds. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he bounces around a few teams before finding the right home.

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I also don’t envision much variance in Anthony’s range of outcomes, either. Maybe he could be this rookie classes’ version of Coby White should things break right (if Anthony was a normal-aged freshman I would probably rate the two similarly as overall prospects). In the downside scenarios, he winds up as a fringe rotation player or a career backup who never makes a lasting impact on a team (Ramon Sessions comes to mind). With the state of this draft, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to pick Cole Anthony in the late lottery – so long as he’s not hailed as a franchise cornerstone.