2020 NBA Draft: Simulating the lottery on what was supposed to be draft lottery day
Simulating the 2020 NBA Draft Lottery on a day in which it was originally scheduled to take place
Had it not been for an unexpected pandemic that has managed to flip the sports world upside down, today (May, 19) would’ve been the 2020 NBA Draft Lottery. However, due to the NBA season currently in a hiatus, every other correlating league date has essentially been pushed back.
That means no draft lottery, on top of no basketball. Tough. However, what we do know about it is simple. For one, the NBA isn’t planning to tweak its current formula – even if the season ends before the completion of its 82-game schedule.
That means the three worst records in the league will each have a 14 percent chance at landing the No. 1 pick. The fourth-worst record will have a 12.5 percent chance at the top pick, and the odds will continue devaluaing the better the record in the lottery. The 14th ranked team in the lottery will have a 0.5 percent chance at the first pick.
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As it currently stands, the Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Minnesota Timberwolves would have the three-best shots at landing the No. 1 overall pick. It’s difficult to predict who the prized prospect is in the 2020 draft class, but there’s a growing probability that the first pick with either be Anthony Edwards, who many consider being the safe selection, or LaMelo Ball, who is more of a high-risk, high-reward type of pick.
Nevertheless, whoever wins the 2020 NBA Draft Lottery will have an upper hand on the rest of the order. The only team that is guaranteed to land the player/prospect that they truly want is the team that owns the top pick.
That’s why the draft lottery has proven to be vital in league history. With that said, even though it’s somewhat depressing that we likely won’t have the draft lottery official results for another few months, thanks to the fine developers at Tankathon.com, we can simulate it.
And as often as we want to.
So on the day that the 2020 NBA Draft Lottery was supposed to take place, we decided it would be a fun exercise to simulate the lottery ourselves. Here were the results:
- Cleveland Cavaliers (moved up 1 spot)
- Portland Trail Blazers (moved up 12 spots!!!)
- Atlanta Hawks (Moved up 1 spot)
- Washington Wizards (moved up 5 spots)
- Golden State Warriors (moved down 4 spots)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (moved down 3 spots)
- Detroit Pistons (moved down 2 spots)
- New York Knicks (moved down 2 spots)
- Chicago Bulls (moved down 2 spots)
- Charlotte Hornets (moved down 2 spots)
- Phoenix Suns (moved down 1 spot)
- San Antonio Spurs (moved down 1 spot)
- Sacramento Kings (moved down 1 spot)
- New Orleans Pelicans (moved down 1 spot)
This was actually a pretty crazy simulation. Due to the Portland Trail Blazers moving up from 14, it caused chaos in the rest of the lottery. The only team to really be unmoved was the Cavaliers, who ended up winning the lottery.
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However, that is the beauty of the draft lottery. You just never know what could happen. Even though the draft lottery is rarely that busy, it was a fun exercise nonetheless. Here’s to hoping the actual 2020 NBA Draft Lottery happens sooner rather than later.