LaMelo Ball should be the top prospect in the 20202 draft class
Having seemingly spent most of his childhood in the national spotlight, it is finally time for LaMelo Ball to follow the lead of his oldest brother, Lonzo, as a projected top pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. While many highly-rated amateurs are quite well-traveled upon entering the league, some churning through several different high schools (or prep schools) before college, Ball has one-upped them by hooping in three separate continents during his rather unconventional journey to the NBA.
His season in the Australian League (NBL) was a smashing success, at least individually. Ball led his team, the Illawarra Hawks, in assists, rebounds, and steals per game (as well as second in points) en route to winning the NBL Rookie of the Year. And this was all despite appearing in only 12 out of 28 games due to a foot injury suffered in practice.
So how will LaMelo Ball fare once he makes his long-awaited arrival to the NBA?
When tasked with evaluating Ball as a prospect, the first thing that you must be cognizant about is separating the hype from the substance. It’s easy to let the montages littered with 40-footers and cherry-picking or the Instagram paparazzi predispose your thinking about him one way or the other. It’s also quite natural to drift towards Lonzo Ball and how his game compares to LaMelo.
Allowing these things to color your perception will make it nearly impossible to scout him objectively. Yes, they may ultimately matter, but the film should do most of the talking. Let’s take a look at a few things that stood out from LaMelo Ball on film.
To start, Ball’s handle is one of the best that you’ll ever see by a player 6-foot-6 or above. He’s fluid and audacious with the basketball, but at the same time practically immune to pressure defense. I only spotted one time where LaMelo was outrightly frazzled by being guarded tightly.
This wizardry allows him to dissect pretty much any defensive coverage and toggle through his progressions like an All-Pro NFL quarterback. He also seems to have inherited his brother’s same vision and decision-making instincts for the chaotic moments that inevitably emerge during the game. Ball will be among the most prolific outlet/baseball pass throwers from the moment he steps into the league.
His modus operandi, the pick-and-roll, is where he shined the most in the NBL. Ball has a very unique cadence for body positioning and dribbling in these situations. He’s a 64-bit processor competing with a 32 or 16-bit in the sense that his actions on the court have many layers. The game is about pattern recognition and LaMelo’s experience/aptitude for this just pops off the screen. His signature move – feigning like he’s crossing back towards the middle of the floor before quickly veering off into his drive – opens tons of real estate for the screen-setter (because the opposing big has to react quickly to Ball).
And with his size, he can freely whip passes (with either hand) to the pop/roll man that smaller guards are incapable of without hanging and contorting. He’s a master at splitting double teams and using his eyes to manipulate the defense for passing angles. LaMelo just looks so loose and natural out there, almost like he’s skipping around a park.
As the season went along, Ball saw his fair share of different looks in these pick-and-roll situations. And while he has counters, it exposed some of the flaws in his game. Given his unconventional shooting form, it’s difficult to imagine LaMelo developing a consistent pull-up jumper from the midrange – a common remedy to “drop” systems.
Ball instead addresses these coverages through one-footed floaters, which he has great range and touch on. At times he can even be too comfortable with these shots, where you’d like to see him push the envelope further for juicier looks.
When opponents started to go “under” more as Ball became a bit gun-shy (a 3-26 stretch from deep to start the year will do that to you), he demonstrated a knack for working the re-screens and using the space to his advantage. This is a hallmark of what makes LaMelo Ball special as an offensive creator– patient and calculated, yet daring enough to pounce on even the slightest crease in the defense.
Ball had mixed results against switch-heavy strategies. His isolation game is predicated on the opponent reacting to his jump-shot. When he was being guarded by an aggressive or jumpy player, LaMelo could mostly get into the paint at will through nasty hesitation/delayed acceleration moves (primarily with his left hand) and quick crossovers. He has a good burst on these drives, so they are often straight blow-bys.
On the other hand, more disciplined defenders gave Ball problems in these one-on-one situations. He would often appear more enamored with going horizontal instead of attacking decisively, getting stuck with no options as a result. LaMelo is a showman by heart, and these were the moments where that reared its ugly head. The low release point of Ball’s jumper is also a concern in these spots because defenders can play the drive and adequately contest the shot simultaneously.
There are two main reasons for LaMelo Ball skepticism as an offensive cornerstone: his jump shot and his athleticism. If someone were to ask me what Ball’s shot looks like, I would be very hard-pressed to come up with an accurate description. You know that something is amiss when the old saying “no two snowflakes are alike” can also reasonably apply to your jumper. The most troubling thing to me isn’t even his unorthodox mechanics, it’s the total lack of consistency.
When he has ample time, Ball seems to prefer a set-shot with minimal jumping and a bit of forwarding momentum.
However, this will vary drastically depending on the situation. He’ll also raise his release point if he’s heavily contested. It may be true that many great shot-makers have the ability to alter and adapt their forms in real-time, but they all have some sort of underbelly that keeps everything aligned, which LaMelo seems to be lacking. He has great natural touch, but unless he has a Steph Curry level of hand-eye coordination, he has a lot of ironing out to do before he can shoot a respectable percentage in the league.
It also may not be mechanically possible for Ball to shoot a side-step three, so that is definitely a major concern. At least there won’t be any question about how he’ll adjust to the NBA-line, as he’s been shooting from there since he was practically still in diapers.
The wacky jumper is less of a hindrance when he’s playing off-ball. LaMelo will likely always have some sort of modicum of spot-up gravity solely due to his reputation. He’s also a pretty lethal cutter and showed a willingness to set screens in the Hawk’s offense. These are all encouraging points for Ball’s scalability on quality teams when he’s in the NBA.
Ball will get up for some highlight dunks every now and then, but overall he leaves much to be desired as a finisher at the rim. The main cause for this is that he doesn’t have the explosiveness to elevate and score over most defenders. LaMelo also tends to avoid contact, often bending and fading far away from the hoop instead of powering through his opponent.
Luckily, with his size and craftiness, his margin for error is much greater than most players, so he could become a good paint scorer in time. Ball combats these limitations with nifty reverse lay-ups and mid-air body contortions to elude rim-protectors. You’d like to see him get more lift on these, but perhaps he’ll gain some athleticism as he grows into his lanky frame. His ambidexterity should also serve him very well going forward. Another issue for LaMelo is that he usually has to glide and cradle the basketball in tight spaces (possibly due to small hands), which gives defenders time to catch up to him and contest the shot.
Defensively, LaMelo was a train wreck this past year. The learning curve was very steep with this being his first time playing for a “real” team, and it showed. So much of what he was rewarded for in the past was quite bluntly sabotaging Illawarra’s defense. The home run plays such as gambling in the backcourt and rushing the ball-handler for steals simply will not fly in the pro ranks.
The good news is that these terrible habits began to erode away as the season progressed, but Ball still needs to improve in a multitude of areas – namely getting through screens, footwork on closeouts, weak-side attentiveness, and overall physicality. The hope is that he will be closer to a neutral on the defensive end than a complete negative with his acumen for reading the passing lanes (help defense) and rebounding.
LaMelo Ball’s NBA prospects
So what does this mean for Ball’s NBA future? LaMelo reminds me a bit of Luka Doncic coming into the draft two years ago in that his body is nowhere near fine-tuned, but he still had his way with the older competition due to his natural talent and acumen for the game. While Ball isn’t the generational prospect that Luka was, this still speaks to his level of upside. His handle and vision are truly remarkable for an 18-year-old. Should he reach his potential, Ball could very well be a legit offensive engine on a championship contender; one of the Platonic ideals for Seth Partnow’s concept (subscription required) of heliocentrism.
That said, he has a long way to go before he can realize that potential, and it’s fair to wonder if he’ll put in the necessary work (his body and his jump-shot are the two most pressing areas) to get there. With his happy-go-lucky personality, I would be terrified to hand the keys of my franchise to LaMelo Ball. There are definitely major D’Lo vibes. He could be in for a rude awakening for the intensity of NBA play.
I’d say he has a greater chance than most high-end prospects of turning out as a “disappointment”, but even the unfulfilled versions of LaMelo would still be valuable in the league given his skillset. Based on all of this, LaMelo Ball should be the unquestioned No. 1 pick in this draft (until another player convinces me otherwise), and I would probably slot him in the Ja Morant/Trae Young tier of prospects since 2018.