2020 NBA Draft: Analyzing Killian Hayes’ future in the Association

Taking a deeper dive into Killian Hayes as a 2020 NBA Draft prospect

You do not come across a teenaged point guard with the polish of Killian Hayes too often. Standing at 6-foot-5, the lefty has a compelling mix of passing, shooting, and ball-handling. Killian’s father, DeRon, is an American who had an extensive playing career in Europe (mostly in France), thus spending most of his childhood growing up in Cholet, France.

Despite still being only 18 years of age (turns 19 on July 27), Hayes already has a relatively accomplished résumé to his name. He won MVP and led France to the gold medal in the U16 European Championship in 2017, and the next year led them to the Finals in the U17 World Cup, (losing to a U.S. team that had Vernon Carey Jr., Jalen Green, and Isaac Okoro, among others) and was named to the All-Star Five in that tournament as well.

Hayes made his debut in the LNB Pro A (top French league) for Cholet just a few months after his 16th birthday, before signing with ratiopharm Ulm two seasons later. In 2019-20, Ulm played its games in the EuroCup (one step below the EuroLeague) and the BBL (top German league). Although his team didn’t have too much success – especially in the EuroCup – Killian Hayes played well enough to see his draft stock soar, with a few analysts even making the case for him as the top player in the class.

Killian Hayes in the 2020 NBA Draft

Hayes is at his best as a playmaker in the pick-and-roll. He does a great job of running his man into the screens and changing rhythms to keep the defense off-balance. And he’s already incredibly advanced at reading the weak-side helper – firing fastballs to the corner before even clearing the paint (his height plays a big part in this as well).

In fact, Killian is so proficient at creating open looks for shooters that opponents started to tag down with more hesitancy, unlocking even larger windows to hit the roll-man. Although it may seem easy to envision Hayes as an outstanding pick-and-roll player in the NBA based on all of this, he has a few key weaknesses that must be shored up should he want to reach that level.

First off, he’s exceedingly left-hand dominant, which makes it quite difficult for him to be as effective from the right side of the floor. Hayes would throw this pass (below) with his left hand in his sleep, but since he’s on the opposite side, the possession stalls.

He generally has a habit of picking up his dribble way too soon when blitzed (left or right hand). This can be maddening, but not too uncommon among young players without the thousands of in-game reps under their belt. The positive news is that Hayes ironed this out as the season progressed, becoming more poised under duress and looking to attack more often. This aggression amplifies his offensive impact because he’s such a great instinctual passer – diming cutters and kicking to shooters once the defense reacts. Killian also made incremental strides with his right hand, though it still needs a lot of work. This type of mid-season growth is very encouraging, and it should reflect kindly on how he’ll adjust to NBA competition.

Hayes is an intriguing, yet mistake-prone ball-handler. Although he can patch together some nice dribble moves and combos, he’s extremely prone to ball pressure. Not only does Hayes get his pocket picked in the back-court far too often (partly explaining his sky-high turnover rate), it also bothers him enough that it affects his ability to initiate Ulm’s offense and organize the team into halfcourt sets.

Plays like above lead me to question whether the turnover issue will plague him throughout his career. I could see him struggling with the increased length/athleticism in the NBA. Killian’s handle can be tightened up to be sure, but this brings to light another aspect of his game that may limit him moving forward.

I’d put my money on Killian Hayes being a below-average athlete in the league for a point guard. He’s tall (with a strong frame) and has solid burst in a straight-line on his drives, but other than that he’s pretty lacking in a number of departments. He’s a little slow in terms of overall foot speed, which is part of the reason why defenders had so much success crowding him. As a side-to-side player, Hayes isn’t terrible, though he can be contained by nimbler bigs.

The hope is that he’ll improve here once he gets under an NBA strength/conditioning program (which could address his tendency of playing too upright as well). Killian makes up for these shortcomings through clever deception on the timing and footwork of his attacks. He’s very good at catching defenders leaning a certain way, and then getting past them through crossovers and hesitations. This is where his handle shines the most – squint hard enough and you can see James Harden or Manu Ginobili.

The other major deficiency of Hayes’ physical profile is his explosiveness/vertical pop at the rim. Even though he stands 6-foot-5, he rarely finishes over defenders and doesn’t have the kind of bounce to dunk in traffic. That’s not to say that Killian’s an incapable leaper by any means – he’ll throw it down off one-foot every now and then – I just don’t see it ever becoming a part of his game. It’s fair to wonder if this lack of dynamism could be his downfall as a primary option; whether his scoring will put enough stress on defenses to truly allow his play-making gifts to sing.

Hayes has counters to this, too. He’ll use long strides to elude defenders, and he’s rather adept at using his length for quick scoop layups and speed finishes around the basket. His signature move in transition – right out of the Goran Dragic playbook – is very effective.

Hayes also has excellent touch on floaters/in-between shots, oftentimes using his size to his advantage by slowing down and hanging in the air (so that defenders can fly-by). And while Killian doesn’t have the smoothest-looking pull-up jumper from mid-range, the shot is a valuable weapon for him (43.6% on 2s outside the paint on the year).

This brings us to Killian Hayes’ ability to score from beyond the arc. There are definitely reasons to believe that he’ll be a dangerous 3-point marksman in the league. The aforementioned feel for floaters and mid-rangers as well as his elite free-throw percentage (87.6% on 89 attempts) provides a strong case for his innate shooting prowess. He’ll also hit some tough pull-up (when the defense goes under) and step-back 3’s off-the-dribble. That said, I’m a little less bullish than some on how good of a 3-point shooter Hayes will be in the NBA.

Killian seems to rely on repetition more than generating natural rhythm on his shot, hence all of the unassisted attempts. He has very specific movement patterns that he uses to get into his step-back – the right to left between-the-legs cross, jab to fake the drive left, hop back to his right side. While it’s great that Hayes already has this in his bag, I don’t necessarily see him as a versatile 3-point shooter, at least not yet.

Further, he was inefficient in spot-up situations for Ulm this season (ranking in the 20th percentile at .727 points per possession) and a non-factor at running off screens for catch-and-shoot opportunities (not his role on the team). He’ll likely improve in these areas, but I don’t ever see it being an emphasis unless he has to drastically overhaul his play style. Overall, I project Killian Hayes to be in the Mike Conley/Jamal Murray mold of shooters: valuable, but not breaking defensive schemes.

I came away rather pleased with what I saw on film of Hayes defensively. While he showed flashes of being a terror on that end, I view him as more of a cog in a machine than an all-defense type of talent.

Hayes is diligent in maneuvering around screens and making timely rotations. He has quick, active hands and anticipates passing lanes for steals. At the same time, his lacking foot-speed will make it tougher to be a one-on-one stopper, and his poor explosiveness off two-feet limits his power as a help defender. Peak Killian Hayes should figure to be a positive defender who can check both 1s and 2s, even if his impact will never be elite (very few guards have this kind of effect).

Now that we have gone in-depth on Hayes as a player, what will he look like in the NBA?

I do not see the amount of high-end upside for Killian Hayes that we have seen in some of the other guard prospects in recent years. I just can’t imagine him as a potent enough scorer to be the top-dog on a championship contender. That doesn’t mean that picking him in top-5 would be a mistake; he should be an above-average starting point guard for 8-10 years, with a couple of all-star appearances if everything breaks right.

Killian is an outstanding talent for his age, but the standards for point guard play in the league are ridiculously high these days. He will definitely be a key building block for any rebuilding team with a hole at point guard (Pistons and Knicks come to mind). It’s generally wise to bet on intelligence. I’d rate Hayes ahead of Anthony Edwards as a prospect by a hair (in the tier below LaMelo Ball), but that may change prior to the draft.