A closer look at Theo Maledon’s game
Coming into the 2019-20 season, Theo Maledon was held in much higher regard as a prospect than his fellow Frenchman, Killian Hayes. He had just served as an integral rotation player for the French League champion, ASVEL (owned by Tony Parker), as a 17-year-old and was looking to step into a larger role for the team this year.
Unfortunately, growth isn’t always linear, and Maledon has since slipped on many big boards. Now that he has declared for the NBA Draft, what can we expect from him in the league?
Breaking down Theo Maledon
Maledon spent much of his time on offense as a ball-handler in the pick-and-roll this season. Here he showcased advanced patience, knifing into the paint with a live dribble and the defender on his back.
And while he may not have great explosiveness, he’s a clever finisher through his soft touch around the rim and ample size/length for a guard. Maledon’s also an unselfish player – he has a knack for squeezing tight passes to big men in the paint
Although he won’t necessarily spray the ball to the weak-side or dime up the roll-man, he’ll flash the occasional high-level read. Another area that Maledon excels in is transition play, which is where you’ll see his aggressiveness reach full-throttle.
Despite all of this, however, Theo Maledon likely tops out as a secondary play-maker because of his handle. Oftentimes you can almost see the gears churning in his head as he’s sizing up the defense. He’s slow with the ball (in the halfcourt) and doesn’t have the shake/wiggle to consistently beat guys 1-on-1. This combined with his lack of stand-out athleticism puts a hard ceiling on his scoring prowess as well.
That’s not to say that Maledon won’t improve, but I don’t see it in the cards for him turning into a dynamic shot-creator in the league. Where some players (see LaMelo Ball) are so free and natural out there, Theo is sort of the opposite of that. He just seems to be more of a made ball-handler, rather than a born one.
The silver lining is that Maledon should be a solid off-ball threat with his catch-and-shoot ability. He ranked in the 60th percentile for spot-up efficiency, averaging 1.00 points per possession. While he may not have the most gravity (due to the way he deliberately hops into his shot), he appears comfortable cutting it loose and the ball usually comes off his hand cleanly. Maledon’s free throw percentage (79.5% across all organized levels of play since 2016) is another indicator of his quality shooting stroke.
Defensively, Theo Maledon looks the part of a stopper, but he has a long way to go. The potential is there, to be sure. He pressures opposing ball-handlers heavily and hounds them around screens. With his size and length, he can be a major disruptor against guards at times.
There are definitely moments with Theo that scream “elite point-of-attack defender.” On the flip side, he gets blown-by far too often, and his tenacity results in an exorbitant foul-rate. While a share of these whistles was dubious; many were legit because he’d put himself in a compromising position to begin with (letting his man get past him off the dribble). A lot of this can be attributed to youth, but it’s fair to let these plays cast some doubt on Maledon becoming a positive defender in the NBA. He also had some glimpses of competing versus centers down low, which is a reason for optimism about how he’d fare in switch-heavy systems once he adds more strength.
Maledon’s off-ball defense this season was a different story. He showed basically no penchant for making timely rotations or being a ball-hawk on the weak-side. Amassing 21 steals and six blocks total on the year is downright abysmal for someone with his tools and amount of intensity. One thing that Maledon struggles with his keeping his head on a swivel, so he’ll often be too locked-in to his match-up instead of watching the entire floor.
Plays like this (above) make me wonder if the foul issues were in his head, or if he’s just simply not a defensive play-maker. This is all fine, there’s no one perfect defender. That said, being a complete liability like this off-ball puts a lot more pressure on Maledon growing into a one-on-one stopper (think in the Avery Bradley-mold of on-ball vs. off-ball).
Now that we’ve analyzed his offensive and defensive game, how does Maledon project in the NBA?
For a franchise drafting Theo Maledon, the hope is that he’ll develop into an important rotation piece in time: decent on both ends of the floor with some versatility (playing either guard position), but nothing spectacular. A reasonable player comparison might be the guard version of De’Andre Hunter (another indictment for the Hawks moving heaven and earth to get him at No. 4 overall).
While this may seem uninspiring, every team needs these sorts of complementary guys that fit well around the rest of the roster. Given Theo’s age (turned 19 on June 12) and pedigree, he may have more latent upside than I’m acknowledging, but it would surprise me to see him become anything more than an average starter.
People like to throw out the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander comp, but he doesn’t have Shai’s precocious finishing ability, handle, or athleticism (SGA’s body control and flexibility make him very unique in that regard). Overall, I’d rate Maledon similarly to Cole Anthony as a prospect, so it wouldn’t be crazy to pick him towards the end of the lottery.