NBA: Ranking every team based off draft success over the last 20 years

Ranking teams based off NBA Draft success

Every team has some kind of draft stigma in the NBA. Teams that we deem as “good drafters” get the benefit of the doubt or are given a pass when they miss. And the other side of that coin is teams labeled as “bad drafters” are expected to fail, while their accomplishments are viewed more as flukes than the status quo.

But how accurate are our biases for these teams? Are our opinions rooted in actual facts or are they the result of a widely accepted general consensus? Well, the purpose of this is to see if we can cut through that with something that I’ll vaguely refer to throughout as “the formula.”

Luck always has some impact when the NBA’s draft system is based on an actual lottery. So context is really important to understand the full picture and will be provided for each team, but scoring will be 100 percent based on the formula. It isn’t super complicated but it strictly follows a set of 10 rules:

1.  Our sample size is the last 20 drafts (2000-19). Had to draw the line somewhere and your team’s quality pick in round two of the 1978 draft has no relevance today.

2. Each player is graded each on their individual accolades as follows: 5 points for an MVP season, 4 points for being named 1st team All-NBA, 3 points for 2nd team All-NBA, 2 points for 3rd team All-NBA, 1 point for making the All-Star team, and 0.5 points for being named a “quality role player”.

3. Quality role players are a little trickier for scoring. Any quality role player is someone who has never made an All-Star/All-NBA team and is required to play an average of 24 minutes or more throughout their career and needs to meet a minimum number of career win shares. From 2000-10, the number of win shares required is 30. Any year after 2010 requires a minimum number of win shares of three multiplied the maximum years of potential service. For example, the required total in 2011 is 27 win shares (3 WS per year multiplied by 9 years of playing time). In 2012 it’s 24 win shares, 21 in 2013, etc. Future potential is also not considered, only what a player has already accomplished.

This requires that every player must play in at least half the game and contribute to winning in some way. This tends to favor older draft classes more than recent ones – this is by design. The more recent the draft class, the less sure we can be about the quality of its players. And if you’re convinced it missed a quality player, go ahead and add half a point to your team’s total, I can assure it doesn’t make a big difference once we get started.

4. Drafting a bust will result in points being taken away from a team’s total. A draft bust will be defined as any pick in the top 3 who has not met the minimum requirements for a quality role player from rule No. 3. Exceptions to this rule: The last three draft classes will not be considered for busts yet. Those players are still on their rookie deals and labeling them as busts would be premature. The 2016 draft is the last year of bust eligibility as they are the most recent class to have done extensions from their rookie contracts. If Ben Simmons has been around long enough to get a max deal then he’s been around long enough to consider whether or not he’s a bust (He isn’t, relax).

5. Bust penalty scoring: -3 points for a bust with the 1st overall pick, -2 for a bust with the 2nd pick, -1 for a bust with the 3rd pick.

6. To provide an incentive for making quality picks later in the draft, any player drafted outside the lottery who made an All-Star team or better will get a 1.5x multiplier. Any player drafted in the second round who has the same accolades will receive double points. Example: Player X was drafted in the second round and made 2 all-star teams so they earn 4 points (2x All-Star, double points for second-round pick).

7. The Joe Johnson rule is in effect. This rule requires that, in order for a player’s points to go to the team who drafted them, they must be with that team for their entire rookie season. Any player traded on draft night or before the end of their rookie season will have their points applied to the team who traded for them.

8. The only rookies eligible for scoring are Zion Williamson and Ja Morant. It’s too early to have any statistical significance in their careers but they are the two runaway favorites for rookie of the year and get a half point each.

9. Any player not mentioned on this list can be assumed to have a score of zero.

10. This is only based on draft picks, not what the team did with that player after their rookie year. So if, for example, a team traded a future MVP in his 3rd season, they still get credit for drafting an MVP.

You’ll figure it out as we go, let’s get started.

*All stats and accolades come courtesy of Basketball-Reference.