NBA Draft: Breaking down Deni Avdija, who should be a top 10 pick

Breaking down Deni Avdija, who should be a top 10 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft

While most NBA draft prospects had their seasons frozen on ice beginning in early March, when the world as we knew it changed forever, Deni Avdija in recent weeks has seized the spotlight for his play in the just-resumed Israeli Premier Basketball League.

Avdija is completing his third season with Maccabi Tel Aviv, a highly successful club in the Israeli League and the EuroLeague. Deni himself as been on the NBA radar since his youth days, dominating in many different environments such as the Basketball Without Borders camps and FIBA tournaments with the Israeli junior national team.

Avdija officially declared for the draft during the hiatus, so how will he fare at the next level?

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Deni Avdija’s NBA Draft prospects

The single most important question to me, one that will likely define Deni Avdija’s NBA career, is whether he can credibly guard perimeter players (particularly wings) in the league. There are valid reasons to believe both sides, and he has the skills on offense to be extremely valuable should he prove capable in doing so.

On the other hand, it would be very problematic for Deni’s long-term outlook if he can’t hang in these spots defensively. The league is trending in a direction where power forwards without positional versatility are obsolete. Kevin Love may be a good player, but it sure is tough to fit pieces around him. So what does the film on Avdija show?

As a 1-on-1 defender, Avdija had mixed results this year. He played almost exclusively at the 3 for Maccabi, where he often had a considerable height advantage on his matchup. This allowed him to be effective at containing his man off-the-dribble, as well as forcing misses on jump shots with strong contests. While Deni’s lateral quickness is far from elite, he’s light enough on his feet to stay with many ball-handlers.

This lack of horizontal speed means that he’ll never be an individual stopper who pressures and disrupts opponents into turnovers, but only a small handful of guys in the NBA fit that description. He also struggles to fight around screens (both on and off the ball), though he progressed here game by game.

One of the most encouraging factors to me about Deni’s defense is how he steadily won over the favor of his coaching staff. He went from getting DNPs/single-digit minute outings to being a key fixture in the rotation as the EuroLeague season moved on. Whenever a 19-year-old is routinely subbed in for crucial defensive possessions (especially when this someone is a more offensive-oriented player), it should raise a few eyebrows. Maccabi even went so far as to having him check Euro-superstar Shane Larkin in the closing seconds of a game.

On the other hand, Deni’s focuses on the court may be elsewhere. He doesn’t really appear to have the typical defender mentality; his intensity level can wax and wane. Avdija tallied just 10 steals and six blocks total in 371 EuroLeague minutes (his steal/block rates look better if you include Israeli League games). The speed deficit could be magnified versus NBA competition. Will he lose any mobility as his body continues to fill out?

I lean towards Deni finding a way to hold up against wings in the league. It’s usually wise to bet on guys with his talent/basketball acumen figuring it out. Less athletically inclined players have masqueraded as competent or even good perimeter defenders (in the regular season at least).

A lot of this also depends on the team that Avdija lands on. An example that comes to mind is Jayson Tatum; who had concerns about his defense coming out of Duke, but found himself in an ideal situation in Boston and is now viewed by some analysts as close to all-league caliber on that end.

If Deni turns out to be a stiff in this respect, however, then suddenly his allure as a prospect is greatly diminished. Although he has the height of an NBA small-ball center, I don’t envision that ever being in the cards for him (due to his under seven-foot wingspan, below-average 2-foot leaping ability, and insufficient physical strength). This would leave Avdija as a man without a country; another marginalized four-man in a league of guards, wings, and centers.

He’d probably still be a fine rotation player (9th/10th man), but nobody is aiming for that in his projected draft range. Deni’s a heady team defender, making timely rotations and “scramming” his teammates out of mismatches, though plays like this make me wonder if he’ll end up as a major difference-maker on the weak-side. Now that we’ve gone over his defense, let’s turn to Deni Avdija on the offensive end.

Being utilized primarily as a spot-up shooter for Maccabi concealed Avdija’s greatest attribute: his comfort with the ball in his hands for his size. Even in this deflated role, Deni’s play-making chops were quite apparent. He has a great feel for attacking closeouts with his drives and reacting to the rotating defense – all in split-second decisions.

This (above) could be right out of a highlight reel of Rick Carlisle’s “flow offense.” While I don’t see the pick-and-roll being much more than a change-of-pace look for Deni in the league, he flashed some nice passing in these spots as well. Avdija has some grab-and-go potential too. His pure speed in the open-floor is almost Ben Simmons-like, which could add another dimension to whatever team he winds up on.

Despite all of this, I don’t think Deni Avdija possesses the one stand-out skill to truly be an elite offensive prospect. Even though he’ll slither past defenders with his right hand (his left needs a lot of work) from time to time, the pure explosiveness off-the-dribble isn’t there. Same goes for as a vertical leaper – Deni’s nifty around the basket; he has a knack for pump-faking and using his size for extension lay-ups and finger-rolls (his hand size is useful here too).

However, with this lack of quick-twitch bounce and a short reach, he profiles more as a solid finisher for his position. He’s also not too fluid as a side-to-side ball-handler, with moments like this demonstrating a lack of wiggle/shake (even for a 6-foot-9 player). Avdija’s still very capable with the ball in his hands, but I view him as a secondary initiator rather than a primary one.

Posting-up could be an intriguing weapon for Deni Avdija later down the road, given his height and touch inside the paint. Maccabi had some success running the offense through him on the block against smaller opponents. Deni seems to enjoy getting touches down low – doing a mix of mashing, dishing and fading (away for jumpers).

This possession above encapsulates why his versatility is so valuable, he immediately shape-shifts from a threat in the post to a spot-up shooter. For posting-up to be a viable option in the NBA regularly, Deni would first need to continue developing his body (he’d often get knocked off his spot) and additional counters to his left-shoulder jump-hook.

The most polarizing element of Avdija’s game is his jump shot. Many have pointed to his alarming free-throw numbers (57.7% on 392 attempts across all levels of organized play dating back to 2017) as an indicator that he’ll never be a respectable 3-point shooter in the league. I’m more bullish on this. Deni has always been comfortable bombing way from deep, going back to his earlier years. His narrower stance allows him to set his feet without much time or space – resulting in a quick and smooth release.

Avdija’s size also makes it much easier to fire under duress, though he tends to hunch over on his shot for some reason. Most of his makes are clean swishes (his misses are all over the place, which is a little disconcerting). In a higher-usage role with the Israeli junior national team, Avdija showed some glimpses of hitting jumpers off-screens and pull-ups stepping to his right.

He’ll never be a 40 percent-guy in all likelihood, but I have confidence that Deni Avdija will shoot with enough volume to be at least an adequate floor-spacer in the NBA.

Putting all of this together, how will Deni’s career unfold in the league? A critical thing to keep in mind is the demand for wings across the league. Even if you are lower on Deni Avdija than other prospects in this class, the fact that he plays a position of great value should be weighed accordingly. Something else that appeals to me is how Deni has already had extensive experience playing a variety of roles: ball-dominant in FIBA play (2019 U20 Euros in particular), “3-and-D” for Maccabi.

Not only does this offer hope for a smoother transition to the NBA, but it also shows what Deni Avdija could potentially bring to any team that drafts him. The ability to mold his game year-by-year, game-by-game, even possession-by-possession, depending on the situation – his versatility papering over any holes in the roster.

That’s if it all works out, however. And he’d still probably be a fringe all-star caliber player in these outcomes. This lack of high-end upside is why it’s hard to get too excited about Avdija. His worst-case scenarios are somewhat grim, too (think Dario Saric with less big man skills). But there’s always a place in the league for high-IQ players, and Deni has real, translatable skills. I think he’ll be a starter-level forward for a long time.

Overall, I’d rank him below Killian Hayes and Anthony Edwards among the prospects I’ve scouted, but in the same tier. In a normal draft, I’d be comfortable taking him in the 6-10 range. In this one, basically anything goes after LaMelo.