Miami Heat need Duncan Robinson to flourish in the offense
Heading into the NBA’s restart, many view the Miami Heat as a potential dark horse in the Eastern Conference. The team has a good mix of veterans and talented young pieces in place that could pose a threat in the playoffs, but there’s one overlooked player on the roster that will have to play at a high level in order for the Heat’s offense to flourish.
It’s not a popular idea to assume that a team’s fifth-leading scorer is the key to any offense, but for the Heat that has very much been a reality during the 2019-20 season. Duncan Robinson, who averaged 13 points per game during his sophomore season in the NBA, has emerged as a key cog for the Heat’s seventh-ranked offense.
Both the eye test and advanced statistics back this theory.
Robinson’s impact on the Miami Heat’s offense
More from Sir Charles In Charge
- Dillon Brooks proved his value to Houston Rockets in the 2023 FIBA World Cup
- NBA Trade Rumors: 1 Player from each team most likely to be traded in-season
- Golden State Warriors: Buy or sell Chris Paul being a day 1 starter
- Does Christian Wood make the Los Angeles Lakers a legit contender?
- NBA Power Rankings: Tiering all 30 projected starting point guards for 2023-24
Among Heat starters, Robinson has the second-best offensive rating (122), third-best (Value Over Replacement Player) VORP (1.1), and is third on the team in win shares (4.7). Not every advanced stat loves him as a player, but there’s no question that he’s become imperative to the team’s offense.
When Robinson is on the floor for the Heat, the team’s offense is almost eight points better. It’s the biggest difference on the team and that’s become very much evident when watching the team. As the season has gone on, the team’s confidence in Robinson has grown. Robinson has also become extremely confident in his game.
Robinson has been given a green light since the start of the season, and you’ve seen him really grow into that role as the season has gone on. During the five games in October, Robinson attempted five 3-pointers per game. That number has only grown since.
To put that into context, during the month of March, before the hiatus, Robinson averaged 11 3-point attempts per game. Throughout the course of the regular season, Robinson has nearly doubled his 3-point output. What is almost more impressive is that his percentages haven’t taken a dip even with the increased shot attempts.
On the season, Robinson averaged 45 percent shooting from 3 on more than eight attempts per game.
When he’s on the floor and stretching defenses, the Heat’s offense has more room to operate in the lane which opens the drive and kick game for Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, and Kendrick Nunn. Perhaps more impactful, it adds spacing that the team desperately needed it a year ago. He’s the elite floor-spacer that has dramatically changed the dynamic of this team’s offense from a year ago.
Even just Robinson’s general threat on the floor changes the way teams defend the Heat. As a simple example, just with the simple threat of a 45 percent 3-point shooter on the floor, defenses don’t have the luxuries of double-teaming Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo without the possibility of a wide-open Robinson setting up at the 3-point line.
What should be scary for defenses is the fact that Robinson isn’t just shooting when he’s open. He’s growing the confidence of shooting even when he’s defended, and still hitting.
A confident Duncan Robinson has quickly become one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the Heat’s arsenal. Many will turn to Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, or even Goran Dragic (off the bench) when discussing the Heat’s offense.
However, if the Miami Heat is going to make a deep playoff run expect Duncan Robinson to play a huge role in their offense.