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Indiana Pacers: Is T.J. Warren emerging as the league’s next star?

Indiana Pacers T.J. Warren (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Indiana Pacers T.J. Warren (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Do the Indiana Pacers have the league’s next star in T.J. Warren?

Basketball is finally back, and it feels like it has been such a long time coming. Since the NBA’s restart on July 31, there have been some unquestionably awesome games and some even better individual performances.

One player who has gone absolutely ballistic in his first three games and who has undeniably been the best player in the bubble is a guy who has been terrific all year but has flown under the radar: T.J. Warren of the Indiana Pacers.

Indiana acquired Warren back in June of 2019 on draft night in a deal with the Phoenix Suns (which has now become somewhat infamous on Twitter) in which the Pacers would receive Warren and a second-round draft pick in exchange for cash considerations.

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And up until the season came to a pause back in March, T.J. Warren had been everything Indiana had hoped he would be while surpassing expectations by some measure.

When the league halted play, Warren was averaging 18.7 points, four rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game on excellent 53-38-81 shooting splits and posting a PER (player efficiency rating) of 17.2. He had appeared in more games than all but one Pacer (61) and had really been one of the most consistent pieces on a team that had to battle several injuries and all the trials and tribulations that come with that all season long.

But nobody wanted to talk about his game because he plays in Indiana. That just comes with the territory when you play in a small market. The only national attention put on T.J. Warren throughout the entire season came from a scuffle that he had with Jimmy Butler back in January.

That didn’t bother Warren. He knows he can play. And so do the Pacers fans who watched him all season long. He is a scorer who can create for himself and who had drastically picked up his defense since arriving in Indiana. He was almost instantly a perfect fit with the Pacers and proved he was a very solid small forward for Indiana all season.

Then came Indiana’s first game of the restart in the bubble. A tough match up with playoff implications against the Philadelphia 76ers. Especially dealing with the injury to Domantas Sabonis and a lingering injury to Malcolm Brogdon. It was uncertain how the team would look and how the players would perform after more than four months off.

But T.J. Warren quickly made it clear that he was ready to play after their time off, and he had used that time to step his game up.

Warren erupted for 19 first-quarter points, going 8-11 from the field, and 2-3 from downtown. He didn’t stop there. He followed that up with 15 more points over the next two quarters.

With the game coming down to the wire who else but T.J. Warren showed up late, scoring 19 more points in the fourth, and knocked down back to back clutch 3-point shots to seal the win for the Pacers.

He finished his first game in the bubble with a career-high 53 points, going 20-29 from the field and a ridiculous 9-12 from 3-point range. In doing so, Warren is now third all-time in Pacers history for points scored in a game, behind just Reggie Miller (57) and Jermaine O’Neal (55). Elite company in Pacerland.

Then came Indiana’s next game against the shorthanded Washington Wizards. With Victor Oladipo sitting out due to this game being the first leg of a back-to-back, the Pacers were looking to keep Warren going. And that’s exactly what happened.

In a game the Pacers controlled from start to finish, T.J. Warren had another incredible game, as he finished with a 34-point, 11-rebound double-double to go along with four assists, four blocks, and three steals. Although he struggled from deep, going 1-6 from 3-point range, he managed to shoot an impressive 14-26 from the floor.

Now people started to take notice that something was different with Warren. Eighty-seven points in two games is no joke.

And T.J. was not done yet. In their third game in the bubble and the second game of their back-to-back, he started off on fire again. Warren made his first eight shots and had 21 points at halftime. In another game where the Pacers dominated from start to finish, Warren led the way with 32 points, going 13-17 from the field and 4-5 from 3-point range. In doing so, he tied an all-time Pacers record for points over three games with 119 points, tying Jermaine O’Neal.

Over the course of the first three games in the bubble, T.J. Warren is playing 39.5 minutes per game, averaging 40 points, six rebounds, three assists, two steals, and two blocks per game, with blistering shooting splits of 65-61-92. All of this while only turning the ball over ONE time.

Since the restart, the Pacers as a team are posting a net rating of +24.3 when TJ Warren is on the floor. That is an otherworldly number.

In just three games, Warren’s season points per game jumped to 19.7 per game, with his shooting splits rising to 54-40-82 and his PER going from 17.2 up to 18.6.

Now I know what you’re thinking. It’s only three games, relax dude.

That’s true, it is only three games. But it is one of the best three-game stretches by a player in recent memory. He is essentially scoring at will while being incredibly efficient doing it. His shooting percentages speak for themselves. Not to mention all of this is coming after a nearly five-month hiatus caused by a global pandemic. This is one of the best individual performances taking place during one of the strangest times imaginable. Warren looks to have taken this time off seriously, and it appears that he has taken a step that maybe so many people thought he could.

A big part of this step? He looks so much more comfortable out there. He has been a smooth player all season long. But the level of confidence he appears to be playing with right now is something that we have not seen this season. He looks like he knows he is one of the best players on the floor at all times, and that is reflecting in his play. You don’t hit these kinds of shots unless you have that swagger in your game.

Before the break in the season, I’m not sure I felt that he could single-handedly take over late in a playoff game.

Now? There is not a doubt in my mind he could do it. Over these last three games, he has played comfortable, confident, methodical basketball. He is letting the game come to him in a way he hadn’t in the past. That is what makes him so efficient.

Another reason that should not be overlooked that helps to get TJ in rhythm: Nate McMillan’s offense. Coach McMillan’s offense celebrates the mid-range game, which is TJ Warren’s bread and butter. Thirty-three percent of his shots come from between 10 feet and just inside the 3-point line, and he makes 49 percent of them. His teammates make it a point to get him a few good looks early. If he hits two or three of them in a row, it’s over.

And if he really is just this confident in his game now and is as comfortable in this Pacer offense as he looks to be, he has multiple All-Star appearances in his future.

This would be huge for the Pacers moving forward, as it would take even more of the pressure off of Oladipo and Brogdon to be closers late in games. They would have three legitimate threats to take the last shot, all of which is more than capable of delivering.

Warren taking that jump to All-Star level would give the Pacers’ three legitimate All-Stars in their starting five in Oladipo, Sabonis, and Warren to go alongside a guy in Brogdon who was close to becoming an All-Star this season, and Myles Turner who is one of the best rim protectors and shooting big men in the league. Not to mention one of the best bench units in the NBA. It would truly make Indiana a legitimate contender to come out of the East.

Will T.J. Warren be an All-Star in the coming years? Maybe. Does he have the talent and ability to do so? Absolutely. It has been said for the past couple years that the Pacers need to “go out and get another guy”, or are “one piece away” from getting back to being a title contender. As it turns out, they might have that other All-Star level player on their roster already, it just took a four and a half month break, a bubble, and some “cash considerations” to find him.

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