NBA Playoffs: Storylines, predictions for each West first-round series

[caption id="attachment_114683" align="alignnone" width="3200"] NBA LeBron James (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)[/caption]rn Breaking down each of the NBA's first-round Western Conference series rnThe NBA playoffs are officially upon us, so let's take a look at the first-round series' in the Western Conference going in-depth on three of them. Mostly because, well, let's just start with the Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers .rn (1) Los Angeles vs. (8) Portland rnSorry to be a buzzkill, but this series won’t be close at all. The Blazers are broken, run-down, and frankly a little souped-up after squeaking by a bunch of lousy teams. As incredible as Damian Lillard is, he isn’t a miracle worker (his playoff record shows that).rnrnThe Lakers have major concerns of their own, but those certainly won’t come to light in this match-up – more on them as we approach their potential second-round matchup with the winner of Houston vs. Oklahoma City.rnrn Pick: Lakers in 4 rnrn[nextslide teaser="Houston%20vs.%20OKC%20" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_114684" align="alignnone" width="3200"] NBA Russell Westbrook (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)[/caption]rn (4) Houston vs. (5) Oklahoma City rnI see this as a favorable matchup for the Houston Rockets , Russ, or no Russ. When James Harden was surrounded by four shooters (no Westbrook or traditional center) this season, the Rockets sizzled to a 118.5 offensive rating in over 100 possessions. You’d figure Luguentz Dort will get the primary match-up on the Beard (assuming his knee injury isn’t serious), and the rookie did a decent job in their one matchup, but Houston will ruthlessly target less-capable defenders like Danilo Gallinari and Steven Adams.rnrnThe Rockets could struggle when Harden rests, as the pressure is now on Eric Gordon and Austin Rivers to create one-on-one due to the absence of Westbrook . It will be fascinating to see if no Brodie makes it more or less likely that we see the double-team strategy.rnrnFor the Thunder, it’s paramount that they find a way to keep Steven Adams on the floor, as they don’t have enough good players to beat Houston at their own game. Defensively, it could get rough, but he needs to get it back on the other end. Adams should be able to have his way on the offensive glass, and it actually serves Oklahoma City well that he won’t try to force the issue on post-ups.rnrnHouston’s cagey help defenders are going to load-up off of the Thunder role players, and Oklahoma City’s deliberate style will only make matters more difficult for themselves. While those guys (Darius Bazley, Hamidou Diallo, Dort, Terrance Ferguson, Abdel Nader, Andre Roberson) have combined to shoot 36.2 percent in the Bubble, they still won’t get guarded, ever. The good news for the Thunder is that they should be able to get plenty of mileage out of the three-guard lineup that has dominated the league.rnrnAll told, I see this as an offensive series, and I don’t trust Oklahoma City’s main players to be able to score against switches as much as I do with Harden. We saw Chris Paul really struggle against this strategy in the second-round last season against Golden State. Gallinari won’t be able to burrow his way to the free-throw line, and Dennis Schroeder is coming out of a long lay-off. The one exception to this may be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has looked un-guardable at times in the bubble, but he hasn’t proven to be a heavy-usage guy, at least not yet.rnrnThis will still be a highly competitive series, to be sure. Houston will have off shooting games. Oklahoma City doesn’t foul and doesn’t turn the ball over. Harden can’t play all 48. CP3 is a bad man. No Westbrook equals no easy transition buckets. I just think Houston is the better team, and that this series is more conducive to their strengths.rnrn Pick: Rockets in 6 rnrn[nextslide teaser="Denver%20vs.%20Utah%20" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_114647" align="alignnone" width="3200"] NBA Denver Nuggets Nikola Jokic (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)[/caption]rn (3) Denver vs. (6) Utah rnThis series makes for a very interesting contrast in styles. Utah concedes the mid-range by dropping Rudy Gobert back in the paint on defense, but Denver takes and makes a lot of those shots on offense. On the other side, the Nuggets often put two on the ball, while the Jazz welcomes that so they can open up catch-and-shoot threes. Even the opposing star centers, Gobert and Nikola Jokic are the core of their respective teams’ identities, but in two completely different ways.rnrnI think this matchup would have been close to a coin flip had Mike Conley been available . Utah’s originally planned starting lineup of Conley/Mitchell/Ingles/O’Neale/Gobert was +19.2 per 100 possessions (in only 208 possessions, however. While Michael Porter Jr. has lit up the Bubble, the Jazz’ lack of a wing stopper shouldn’t matter too much since he does most of his work off-ball.rnrnThey should also have the math advantage in their favor, specifically in terms of corner-3's (Utah shot the second-most and Denver allowed the fifth-most).rnrnThat said, Utah’s depth and size are major issues. They basically have six, or seven (depending on your thoughts on Georges Niang) playable guys, and Denver seems to play well no matter who is on the floor. The Nuggets have feasted on the offensive glass these past two seasons, which is going to be magnified since Utah essentially plays four guards around a center.rnrnOn defense, they are going to flood the nail/paint and force Mitchell to make kick-out passes over length, something I could see him struggling with. Bojan Bogdanovic would change the entire nature of this series, though Utah still theoretically has enough shooting to capitalize on Denver’s aggressive defensive scheme (if you take his three-point attempts out, Utah goes from 38 percent as a team to 37.2 percent, tops in the league to sixth-best). Porter is the big wild card in this whole thing, especially with the questions about the status of Gary Harris and Will Barton. With both teams’ rotations in flux, there are going to be plenty of unexpected players and lineups on the court.rnrnJokic definitely takes Gobert out of his comfort zone, and that’s likely where this series begins and ends. He’s going to get an open look or a switch whenever he uses an off-ball screen. Those little in-between push shots are a Joker specialty (52.4% on shots from 4-14 feet for his career, which is ridiculous). Utah’s smalls are going to have their work cut out for them on all those dribble hand-offs. It could be curtains if Jokic hits enough jumpers – thus dragging Gobert out of the lane. The one-on-one play will be interesting as well, a battle of strength versus length. And when Utah has the ball, Jokic has the savvy and water polo dexterity to thwart some of Gobert’s finishes, though the Stifle Tower’s speed can give him problems.rnrnThis is a big moment for both of these players, and I’m excited to watch how it plays out. Jokic probably wins that matchup and the Jazz don’t have nearly enough to overcome that. Donovan Mitchell has come up short two years in a row, but let’s see how he fares against a team other than the Houston Rockets. It’s disappointing that this turbulent Jazz team never got the chance to play out the string with its full roster.rnrnThe Nuggets have a lot of long-term decisions to make outside of Jokic and Jamal Murray, and how Michael Malone handles the rotation (the new guard in Porter/Jerami Grant or the old regime in Barton/Harris/Paul Millsap/Mason Plumlee) in this series will likely determine a lot moving forward. The team as a whole hasn’t really impressed me throughout the year, which is why I believe Utah will make these games competitive even with a depleted squad.rnrn Pick: Nuggets in 5 rnrn[nextslide teaser="LA%20vs.%20Dallas%20" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_113599" align="alignnone" width="3200"] NBA Kawhi Leonard and Paul George (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)[/caption]rn (2) LA vs. (7) Dallas rnDallas had by-far the best point differential out of any non-L.A. Western Conference team, but I view the Clippers as the worst possible match-up for them. Their defense is already terrible (by playoff standards) to begin with, and the team’s dearth of options to guard wing threats will only be amplified here.rnrnI knew Dallas was toast in this series the moment they had to unearth Michael Kidd-Gilchrist against the Blazers because nobody could stop Carmelo Anthony – it makes me shudder at the thought of what Kawhi/PG are going to do. The Mavericks’ two best answers are Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber. If I were them, I’d think about starting Kleber in place of the Curry/Burke spot, as he had promising sequences in their most recent contest against Leonard.rnrnThis would also allow Luka Doncic to hide on Patrick Beverley, and for the Curry/Burke minutes to align with the LA reserves. Finney-Smith is an adequate defender, but he doesn’t have enough size to give the Clippers’ stars any type of difficulty.rnrnWhile Dallas was a historically dominant offense this year, I think the Clippers' personnel is well-suited to slow them down (even from an all-time rate to a modestly “good” rate). They’ll use their length to shrink the floor and make Doncic work for everything. Ivica Zubac has been surprisingly staunch as a rim deterrent, but LA has the front-court depth to replace him if Kristaps Porzingis is banging 30-footers.rnrnThey even have the versatility to go to all-switching lineups if they want to throw a different look out there. Dallas will still have moments of offensive brilliance - Doncic is transcendent - but the Clippers should be able to neutralize them enough while making hay on the other end.rnrnFor the Mavericks, you have to hope that Luka is so dominant (like he was in the Bucks game, for example), that he single-handedly keeps them in games. The Clippers don’t really have any type of continuity, but I don’t really expect that to matter as long as Leonard and George are healthy and playing. Perhaps Rick Carlisle can come up with creative solutions to gum up LA’s somewhat static offense. They are also heavily reliant on free-throws, and not fouling is the one thing Dallas can hang its hat on defensively.rnrn[story_link_next description="NBA%20Mock%20Draft%206.0%3A%20Sacramento%20Kings%20land%20LaMelo%20Ball%3B%20Golden%20State%20Warriors%20snag%20James%20Wiseman" url="https://sircharlesincharge.com/2020/08/16/nba-mock-draft-kings-lamel-ball-warriors/" /]rnrnOverall, this series shouldn’t ever be in doubt, which is a shame since I think the Mavericks are good enough to win a series. If only the clutch gods hadn’t frowned upon them this year.rnrn Pick: Clippers in 5

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NBA Playoffs: Storylines, predictions for each West first-round series

Breaking down each of the NBA’s first-round Western Conference series

(1) Los Angeles vs. (8) Portland

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