NBA Playoffs: Storylines, predictions for each West first-round series

(4) Houston vs. (5) Oklahoma City

I see this as a favorable matchup for the Houston Rockets, Russ, or no Russ. When James Harden was surrounded by four shooters (no Westbrook or traditional center) this season, the Rockets sizzled to a 118.5 offensive rating in over 100 possessions. You’d figure Luguentz Dort will get the primary match-up on the Beard (assuming his knee injury isn’t serious), and the rookie did a decent job in their one matchup, but Houston will ruthlessly target less-capable defenders like Danilo Gallinari and Steven Adams.

The Rockets could struggle when Harden rests, as the pressure is now on Eric Gordon and Austin Rivers to create one-on-one due to the absence of Westbrook. It will be fascinating to see if no Brodie makes it more or less likely that we see the double-team strategy.

For the Thunder, it’s paramount that they find a way to keep Steven Adams on the floor, as they don’t have enough good players to beat Houston at their own game. Defensively, it could get rough, but he needs to get it back on the other end. Adams should be able to have his way on the offensive glass, and it actually serves Oklahoma City well that he won’t try to force the issue on post-ups.

Houston’s cagey help defenders are going to load-up off of the Thunder role players, and Oklahoma City’s deliberate style will only make matters more difficult for themselves. While those guys (Darius Bazley, Hamidou Diallo, Dort, Terrance Ferguson, Abdel Nader, Andre Roberson) have combined to shoot 36.2 percent in the Bubble, they still won’t get guarded, ever. The good news for the Thunder is that they should be able to get plenty of mileage out of the three-guard lineup that has dominated the league.

All told, I see this as an offensive series, and I don’t trust Oklahoma City’s main players to be able to score against switches as much as I do with Harden. We saw Chris Paul really struggle against this strategy in the second-round last season against Golden State. Gallinari won’t be able to burrow his way to the free-throw line, and Dennis Schroeder is coming out of a long lay-off. The one exception to this may be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has looked un-guardable at times in the bubble, but he hasn’t proven to be a heavy-usage guy, at least not yet.

This will still be a highly competitive series, to be sure. Houston will have off shooting games. Oklahoma City doesn’t foul and doesn’t turn the ball over. Harden can’t play all 48. CP3 is a bad man. No Westbrook equals no easy transition buckets. I just think Houston is the better team, and that this series is more conducive to their strengths.

Pick: Rockets in 6