(3) Denver vs. (6) Utah
This series makes for a very interesting contrast in styles. Utah concedes the mid-range by dropping Rudy Gobert back in the paint on defense, but Denver takes and makes a lot of those shots on offense. On the other side, the Nuggets often put two on the ball, while the Jazz welcomes that so they can open up catch-and-shoot threes. Even the opposing star centers, Gobert and Nikola Jokic are the core of their respective teams’ identities, but in two completely different ways.
I think this matchup would have been close to a coin flip had Mike Conley been available. Utah’s originally planned starting lineup of Conley/Mitchell/Ingles/O’Neale/Gobert was +19.2 per 100 possessions (in only 208 possessions, however. While Michael Porter Jr. has lit up the Bubble, the Jazz’ lack of a wing stopper shouldn’t matter too much since he does most of his work off-ball.
They should also have the math advantage in their favor, specifically in terms of corner-3’s (Utah shot the second-most and Denver allowed the fifth-most).
That said, Utah’s depth and size are major issues. They basically have six, or seven (depending on your thoughts on Georges Niang) playable guys, and Denver seems to play well no matter who is on the floor. The Nuggets have feasted on the offensive glass these past two seasons, which is going to be magnified since Utah essentially plays four guards around a center.
On defense, they are going to flood the nail/paint and force Mitchell to make kick-out passes over length, something I could see him struggling with. Bojan Bogdanovic would change the entire nature of this series, though Utah still theoretically has enough shooting to capitalize on Denver’s aggressive defensive scheme (if you take his three-point attempts out, Utah goes from 38 percent as a team to 37.2 percent, tops in the league to sixth-best). Porter is the big wild card in this whole thing, especially with the questions about the status of Gary Harris and Will Barton. With both teams’ rotations in flux, there are going to be plenty of unexpected players and lineups on the court.
Jokic definitely takes Gobert out of his comfort zone, and that’s likely where this series begins and ends. He’s going to get an open look or a switch whenever he uses an off-ball screen. Those little in-between push shots are a Joker specialty (52.4% on shots from 4-14 feet for his career, which is ridiculous). Utah’s smalls are going to have their work cut out for them on all those dribble hand-offs. It could be curtains if Jokic hits enough jumpers – thus dragging Gobert out of the lane. The one-on-one play will be interesting as well, a battle of strength versus length. And when Utah has the ball, Jokic has the savvy and water polo dexterity to thwart some of Gobert’s finishes, though the Stifle Tower’s speed can give him problems.
This is a big moment for both of these players, and I’m excited to watch how it plays out. Jokic probably wins that matchup and the Jazz don’t have nearly enough to overcome that. Donovan Mitchell has come up short two years in a row, but let’s see how he fares against a team other than the Houston Rockets. It’s disappointing that this turbulent Jazz team never got the chance to play out the string with its full roster.
The Nuggets have a lot of long-term decisions to make outside of Jokic and Jamal Murray, and how Michael Malone handles the rotation (the new guard in Porter/Jerami Grant or the old regime in Barton/Harris/Paul Millsap/Mason Plumlee) in this series will likely determine a lot moving forward. The team as a whole hasn’t really impressed me throughout the year, which is why I believe Utah will make these games competitive even with a depleted squad.
Pick: Nuggets in 5