2020 NBA Draft Lottery: Which team has the most at stake?
By Alex Saenz
12. Boston Celtics – via Memphis – (0.5% odds for No. 1, 2.4% for the top 4)
This is the Grizzlies’ first-rounder, which the Celtics own due to the Jeff Green trade way back in 2015. I was tempted to move this one higher, but the odds of it moving up to the top 4 are just too remote. If that does happen, however, then Memphis would get to keep this pick, while the Celtics would receive the Grizzlies’ first-rounder in 2021 (unprotected) instead.
I’m sure both teams would prefer this happen, as Memphis would get another chance to bolster their Ja Morant/Jaren Jackson Jr. core, while Boston would receive a pick with higher upside (Memphis is a prime regression candidate for next season, and the 2021 draft is more highly-regarded). All that said, it’s a near certainty that this pick finally conveys to Boston tonight.
11. Sacramento Kings (1.3% odds for No. 1, 6.1% for the top 4)
Now we get into the long-shot portion of the lottery. After a promising 2018-19 season, Sacramento finally appeared to be on the upswing, or so we thought. Since it’s the Kings, things went sideways in a hurry, and now they are locked into a roster that doesn’t have much upside outside of De’Aaron Fox, barring a miracle tonight.