Toronto Raptors will outlast the Boston Celtics in a seven-game slugfest

Toronto Raptors set to begin series with Boston Celtics

With each of their previous series’ ending in sweeps, the three-seeded Boston Celtics and the two-seeded Toronto Raptors will get an early start to the second round of the NBA playoffs.

Several years – and many iterations of each team – have come and gone, and now we finally get the long-awaited playoff showdown between the two winningest Eastern Conference franchises since 2014-15. So what can we expect in this heavyweight battle?

Both of these teams were elite during the regular season, the Celtics ranked second in Net Rating (+7.0), and the Raptors fourth (+5.7). Boston did it through incredible balance, finishing number-four overall in both offense and defense, which doesn’t happen too often. Toronto, on the other hand, was more one-sided – dominant on defense but around average offensively. They were also in the bottom-three on offense during the seeding games in the bubble.

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This is where this matchup begins. Toronto is heavily reliant on transition, while Boston is incredibly diligent in limiting these opportunities – a hallmark of the Brad Stevens era. In all four of their regular-season meetings (admittedly with the Raptors missing key personnel in two of them), the Celtics held Toronto to under their season-average in transition frequency, and the reigning champs largely struggled to score as a result.

The Raptors generate much of their halfcourt offense through pick-and-rolls with their two point guards, Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet. The dirty secret about them, however, is that neither one really wants to finish the play themselves at the rim. A lot of possessions end like this, where VanVleet won’t pressure the big man and squeezes a pass that’s barely there to Serge Ibaka.

Boston excels at defending these 2-on-2 actions by pushing the ball-handler towards the sideline and not over-committing – a perfect antidote to Toronto’s attack. They just don’t make the kind of mistakes that Lowry/VanVleet count on, at least not when Daniel Theis is at center. Perhaps Toronto could extend the screens higher out on the floor to open up some off-the-bounce triples.

Given Marc Gasol’s reluctance to shoot at times, this might be a better series for Ibaka – who has made a killing on those little in-between shots since arriving in the Six – but Gasol adds so many more dimensions to the team (something that the lineup data reflects).

This isn’t a great matchup for the Raptors’ other go-to option, Pascal Siakam, either. Jaylen Brown drew the primary Siakam assignment during the regular season, and he was pretty successful in bottling up those pitter-patter barrages to the paint. And with Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart, Boston has the bodies to adequately switch the quick-pitch actions that Toronto runs for him. Siakam did get some buckets in the post against Brown in their most recent contest, so that could be something the Raptors explore.

Another look that has worked for Toronto has been running the two guards around off-ball screens such as wide pin-downs – Lowry lit the Celtics up for 30 points in their lone victory through a steady diet of these. That brings us to the individual player matchups, which were quite fascinating in the regular season. When the starters were aligned, it was predominately Tatum on Lowry, Kemba Walker on VanVleet, Brown on Siakam, Gordon Hayward on O.G. Anunoby, and center versus center. Hayward’s absence changes all of this.

Does Boston have Smart check Lowry instead, since Tatum isn’t great chasing guards around picks? This would also allow Tatum to utilize his outstanding help-side defense on Anunoby, who the Celtics haven’t really respected as an offensive threat. Or does Anunoby provide a hiding spot for Walker?

I expect it to be a slog for the Raptors on this end of the floor. Lowry and VanVleet will certainly have their moments of shot-making from deep and shrewd facilitating, but they aren’t dynamic enough to break Boston’s defense every game. Siakam, who has quietly dropped off after a torrid first month, is the key. Toronto will need him to scrounge up enough points versus the Celtics’ rangy wings if they want to stay afloat. It’s a good thing that they sport an impenetrable defense themselves.

Can the Celtics score against the Raptors? At first glance, it appears that they have some hope. Toronto’s defense is all about helping and rotating with extreme ferocity – using their collective speed, intensity, and wits to overwhelm opponents as the shot clock ticks. They don’t allow layups (6th lowest in the frequency of rim attempts allowed, 2nd lowest in accuracy) and cause heaps of turnovers (2nd highest rate). But all of this mad scrambling has a cost: the 2019-20 Raptors coincided the second-most 3-point attempts ever, on a per-game basis, behind only this year’s Milwaukee Bucks (another dominant defense, which really makes you think…). The Celtics, meanwhile, may have the offensive makeup to capitalize.

While Toronto’s perimeter players aren’t going to die on screens like Shake Milton and the other non-Josh Richardson Sixers, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker are going to have ample daylight to walk into pull-up jumpers out of pick-and-roll. One of the main staples of Boston’s playbook – a double-high where a wing (usually Tatum) sets the first screen before the center – had great success in freeing Walker for 3’s off-the-dribble when these teams squared off. Walker and Tatum are lethal enough long-range bombers to punish this Raptors scheme. We’ll see if they can do it consistently over a seven-game series. Toronto will come with counters, too, such as pre-switching and mixing up the matchups, but things could get dicey if their centers (particularly Gasol) are forced to show further out on the perimeter.

The loss of Hayward is a costly blow for Boston, however, as he provides another release valve to these aggressive Raptor rotations, and he’s still the team’s best playmaker. Tatum and Brown are prone to tunnel vision and can be loose with the ball in tight spaces – a recipe for disaster in this series. For all of the positive vibes post-Kyrie, the Celtics tend to devolve into a static, one-on-one offense at times. Will they act decisively against Toronto’s closeouts?

It’ll be interesting to see what Toronto does with the Jayson Tatum matchup since Hayward is out. They seem comfortable putting Lowry on him, and he’s pretty much impossible to back down in the mid-post. But as we saw in last year’s playoffs versus J.J. Redick and Stephen Curry, Lowry isn’t as strong navigating off-ball screens, and Tatum burned him a few times in the regular season. The logical move would be to slot Anunoby on him, who has become one of the best wing defenders in the league, but I’m sure the Raptors will vary the looks.

Overall, Boston seems a little light on passing to truly take advantage of Toronto’s style. The Raptors are going to make some of their lesser shooters beat them. Boston is surprisingly opportunistic on the offensive glass, so perhaps that’s something they could exploit (Raptors were 21st in defensive rebound rate on the season). I view this series as a defensive slugfest, with both teams working hard to grind out points in the half-court. Starters versus starters, I’d give the slight edge to Boston, but it could definitely go either way.

Both coaches are going to have to lean heavily on these main guys. It’s a little jarring how many question-marks there are on each team’s bench. Toronto essentially has two players they trust in Ibaka and Norman Powell, with some Terence Davis and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson sprinkled in. It’s a little murkier for the Celtics. Brad Wanamaker has stepped up as a caretaker-sort of reserve point guard.

The backup center to Theis is usually matchup dependent. Grant Williams – who may be a decent option for Siakam duty – will likely get the first crack over Enes Kanter (liability on defense) and Robert Williams (too inexperienced for big games). Other than that, the only other reserves who may get time for Boston are Semi Ojeleye and Romeo Langford. It’s imperative for Toronto that they outscore Boston when these units are in the game, especially since Nick Nurse has never been shy to play his starters 40-plus minutes.

Another intriguing aspect of this series is the coaching battle between Brad Stevens and Nick Nurse. We all remember Nurse’s all-time run in last year’s playoffs, but it’s also the little things with him that set him apart. Watch here in the Christmas Day game as he purposely toggles the matchups coming out of a timeout to throw Boston off rhythm for a possession. I’d expect to see plenty of zone and other “junky” defensive coverages from the Raptors. Stevens is no slouch either. His after-timeout sets are already the stuff of legend, and the Celtics never seem to be out of games due (at least in part) to his second-half adjustments.

So which team will come out on top? The Celtics do seem to have more potential for offensive outbursts. Tatum and Walker are two guys who can break down the defense one-on-one in end-of-game situations, something Siakam is relatively unproven at. And Jaylen Brown, often an afterthought, is another 20-point-a-game scorer. Boston’s depth is an issue. Toronto, on the other hand, has so many different ways to win – with no glaring weaknesses on either end. Perhaps we see Nurse finally bust out the “Siakam at center” card.

The Raptors have carried that championship moxie with them all year long, and the confidence in close games is obvious. For all of the ballyhoo about Stevens, his only two tough playoff series wins were against the Baby Sixers (it’s sad that this may turn out as the best team of the Embiid/Simmons era) and the 2016-17 Washington Wizards (thanks, Scott Brooks!). This matchup is pretty much a coin-flip, especially without the homecourt factor.

Pick: Raptors in 7