Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors: Taking a series temperature for Game 5

Resetting the series between the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors for Game 5

Half-a-second. That was all the time that was needed for the Toronto Raptors to save their season and for the Boston Celtics to blow a golden opportunity at the Eastern Conference Finals. After OG Anunoby’s (and Kyle Lowry‘s) miracle at the horn in Game 3, Toronto has now knotted the series at 2-2 with another gutsy victory in Game 4.

So where do both teams stand in this series heading into Game 5 and what can we expect moving forward?

First off, this series has been a complete grind offensively. The Raptors, as expected, have had to scrap and claw for every last bucket in the halfcourt. With the Celtics locked into the scouting report, Lowry and Fred VanVleet haven’t been able to open passing windows for Toronto’s drive-and-kick game.

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And while Pascal Siakam had some moments in the post in Game 4, he’s struggled mightily to create looks in one-on-one situations. Siakam has scored 69 points on 70 field goal attempts thus far – not exactly a great showing in his first go-around as a primary option. With all of these difficulties getting open looks, it’s clear that a major emphasis for Toronto has been letting it fly on the first available 3 – no matter how contested or how early in the shot-clock.

Anunoby and VanVleet are bombing away catch-and-shoots, Serge Ibaka pick-and-pops, and even Siakam is attempting some off-the-dribble triples. Overall in this series, the Raptors are taking 36.4 percent of their shots from above-the-break, up from 29.7 percent in the regular season, and more than the league-leading Houston Rockets (34 percent).

This approach finally paid dividends in Game 4, as they converted on 41 percent of these looks (after shooting a ghastly 25.8 percent on these in the first three contests).

On the other end, Boston has also been bogged down by stellar defense. Since Game 1, they’ve mustered just a 91.1  offensive rating in the halfcourt. It starts with how the most potent aspect of Boston’s attack – pull-up jumpers by Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker – have largely dissipated throughout the series.

Toronto has done an impressive job of limiting these opportunities by: 1) putting the bigs (Marc Gasol and Ibaka) closer to the level of the ball and 2) helping off Boston’s other players. Gasol in particular has been masterful at reading the screener and altering his coverages in real-time – at age 35, he’s still dominant defensively. The Raptors have over-rotated off of perimeter shooters all year long, but the degree to which they are doing it now is absurd. It’s no coincidence that Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart have each shot more threes than Tatum and Walker in these four games total.

Anunoby has also gotten more of the Tatum assignment, and Tatum seems a bit unnerved to uncork from deep with him around. This has allowed Lowry to roam in help defense, where he has made some incredible plays coming out of nowhere from the weak-side.

For the Celtics, the first thing they need to do is simplify the game and trust the easy pass. Right now they are letting the Raptors’ vicious rotations dictate the game. The results are usually pretty good whenever they run a high screen-and-roll targeting Ibaka/Gasol, and they should become even more ruthless in exploiting this. The pocket pass is almost always there if Tatum and Walker are well-covered, which would allow Boston to play in 4-on-3 situations.

Much has been made about the wacky defenses from Toronto, but the Celtics largely figured them out in Game 4, and it’s been almost exclusively man-to-man when both of Boston’s all-stars are on the floor. That said, the Celtics do seem a bit frazzled out there – Toronto’s defense will do that even to the best of them. Not only is it the various zone looks, but they will mess around with the individual player match-ups (particularly when the Boston reserves are out there) and seamlessly switch/pre-switch to quell some of the Celtics’ actions.

This is where losing that one other sound decision-maker in Gordon Hayward really hurts, and it’s pushed the liabilities off the bench (Semi Ojeleye, Brad Wanamaker, and Grant Williams) into increased roles. They’ve also had an uncharacteristic amount of mental lapses as a team – from letting Anunoby sneak in uncontested for offensive rebounds to losing VanVleet on Steph re-location 3’s – which I’m sure they’ll clean up.

The Raptors can still play better, too. Siakam is bound to have at least one efficient night, right? And Gasol is going to have to actually look at the basket at some point in this series. They also had plenty of careless, unforced turnovers in Game 4, which I wouldn’t necessarily expect moving forward. It’s fair to wonder how much more the Toronto starters can give, however, as their minute totals have been absurd in these last three games.

This series has been a pleasure to watch: the intensity on both sides along with the strategic battle between Nick Nurse and Brad Stevens. For all of this granularity, however, the end result often boils down to the old trope “it’s a make-or-miss league.”

The shot quality hasn’t swung that drastically game to game, but there’s not much you can do if Marcus Smart is going to hit five straight 3’s, or if OG Anunoby is going to go 7-11 over a two-game stretch. This series is really as close to even as you can get, and I can’t wait to see how it unfolds.