Boston Celtics: Heading into Game 4, the C’s have the advantage and momentum

Boston Celtics appear to have the advantage heading into Game 4

Things appear to be looking up for the Boston Celtics ahead of a pivotal Game 4 against the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals.

They finally broke through in a resounding Game 3 victory, leading by as much as 19 in the third quarter – thanks in large part to a dominant two-way performance by Jaylen Brown. Gordon Hayward is back, and the group appears to be sailing in steady tides after the boat got rocked.

So what can we now expect moving forward in this Eastern Conference Finals?

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Make no mistake about it, Boston is a superior basketball team to the Miami Heat. They’ve been up for about three-quarters of the action in this series (111 out of 149 minutes total), and their overall resume from the regular season was more robust. It took a crazy 3’s from Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler to send Game 1 into overtime. And even with the ugly nature of the Game 2 loss, Boston still had a five-point lead in closing minutes. There’s a reason the Celtics have been the favorite in all three games.

That said, the Miami Heat have been on a roll in these playoffs, and what they’ve accomplished so far cannot be taken lightly. Butler is a different type of superstar, one who empowers his teammates. His fearlessness in clutch-time has clearly rubbed off on the rest of the Heat. Erik Spoelstra always comes with adjustments.

The way this Miami team can adapt their play style on both ends is a testament not only to the coaching staff/culture but also to their personnel and depth throughout the roster. Miami’s lead in this series can largely be attributed to taking Boston out of their own game. While the Celtics have gradually figured out solutions, Miami is still in pole position with a 2-1 edge going into Game 4.

During the first two games, the Heat had Boston completely out of sorts on offense for extended periods. Every time they appeared to have a rhythm going, Miami would switch up the coverages. This is similar to what Toronto did in the previous round. For all of the potency of Boston’s multi-pronged attack of Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kemba Walker (Marcus Smart sometimes plays as if he’s in this group), none of those guys are natural playmakers. Junking up the game forces them to make more calculated decisions – reading instead of reacting.

Miami’s switch-everything approach (seriously, who can’t Bam Adebayo guard?) in man-to-man mostly resulted in a self-created Tatum or Walker-centric offense, which is a difficult way to stay afloat in any circumstance. This station-to-station basketball became far too predictable in Game 1, and by the end, Butler wasn’t even coinciding with the switch on Tatum.

The Heat have also run plenty of zone-defense, going to it in the second half of Game 2 pretty much won them the game. They station their best perimeter defenses (Butler, Jae Crowder, Andre Iguodala, Derrick Jones Jr.) at the top with Bam in the middle. This has exposed a few weaknesses of Boston’s attack – the lack of high-end decision-makers, the non-existent scoring threat of Daniel Theis, and Tatum/Walker being more comfortable on-ball rather than off-ball.

Typically against a 2-3 zone, one of the weak points is the middle around the free-throw line. Boston should be able to get good looks from here, but Theis flashing and making a play is not something Miami is worried about. Putting a guard/forward in this area messes with the spacing. Additionally, this defense also succeeded in limiting Boston’s two all-stars.

For all of Kemba Walker’s brilliance, he’s still under 6-feet tall without shoes, and Miami’s size at the top of the zone gives him major issues. Jayson Tatum used to be a top-notch catch-and-shoot player, but he now seemingly wants to default into a side-step. With weaker defenders like Goran Dragic, Herro, and Duncan Robinson hiding in the corners, it’s tough to find areas to hunt 1-on-1 matchups.

Miami managed to grind out enough offensively to make it work in Games 1 and 2. Boston is an elite defense – rangy, athletic, on-a-string – and all of the motion/screen has been reduced. But Miami’s shooters can transcend this – Crowder (at least right now), and Robinson are that good. Spoelstra in both victories milked sets involving the resurgent Goran Dragic.

In Game 1, the Heat targeted Kemba mercilessly, having Dragic set back-screens for Butler to get the mismatch with Adebayo facilitating at the elbow. This opened up the paint for Butler to either get buckets or draw help and kick. Dragic was phenomenal again in Game 2, as Boston had no answers for the pick-and-roll with him.

The alignment of Butler in the dunker’s spot and Robinson in the weak-side corner worked time-and-time again, as even pick-and-rolls with Herro and Crowder were successful. Once the Celtics started switching late, Dragic continued to cook, eventually sealing the game with jumpers over Theis.

Everything changed in Game 3. The return of Gordan Hayward pushed Boston’s bench guys into even smaller roles and injected some much-needed decision-making. The small lineup (some will say their version of the Death Lineup) was exceptional on both ends. Boston had a much more coherent attacking against the Heat switching – focusing on getting downhill through decisive movements, as well as getting Bam out of the play.

Theis was often stationed in the corner, with the Celtics using the smalls to set screens instead. They also seemed to have an emphasis on quick ball reversals in order to catch the weak-side off-guard and open up alleys to attack. Boston has finally gotten out of their own way, which is why I still believe they are going to win this series.