Denver Nuggets: How can the team take the next step in the offseason?

How can the Denver Nuggets take the next step?

It was a dream run for the Denver Nuggets in the 2020 NBA playoffs. They came back from a 3-1 deficit in the playoffs twice, the first team to do so in NBA history, beat a tough Utah Jazz team, a title favorite in the LA Clippers, and was an Anthony Davis buzzer-beater away from really making the Los Angeles Lakers sweat.

I began writing this offseason preview in the first round and was starting the article off with “imagine a team enters the playoffs without its starting small forward (Will Barton), how far would you expect anyone to go?”

It turns out I didn’t need to coddle Denver fans at all. Some might say that it’s just the bubble, such an unprecedented situation, but All-NBA center Nikola Jokic caused some major problems for opposing defenses in the playoffs and they beat the Clippers and Jazz, not a weird Spurs team, and pushing the Blazers to seven like last season.

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Oh, and instead of Jamal Murray looking like he might be overpaid with a max contract extension last summer, it looks, if anything like he’s underpaid.

Heading into this offseason, the Nuggets don’t have to look at themselves as the next team. With a conference finals trip under their belts and most of their core pieces locked down, this team can start to look at building a title contender, and a serious one at that.

So, let’s look at all their options and what’s next for the Denver Nuggets?

The No. 1 priority for the Nuggets should be Jerami Grant. A former part of The Process Sixers, it seemed like a guarantee that Grant would eventually supplant Paul Millsap as the team’s starting power forward, both as guys who are good this season, but their ages making it a no-brainer.

Also, the Nuggets traded a first-round pick last season to nab the athletic forward. It’s highly unlikely you give up a real asset for a player in their final season of the contract without the intention of re-signing them.

Millsap started most of the regular season (to his credit as well) but down 3-1 in the first round this season, head coach Mike Malone turned to a lineup he could trust more defensively, slotting in Monte Morris and Grant to the starting lineup.

It was obviously successful but paid huge dividends against the Clippers as Grant was a long, switchy defender the team could be confident would guard Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, having the primary assignment on Kawhi.

But his defensive abilities were well-known before this series (not to take away from the fact he guarded one of the best offensive players well), what was really encouraging was his offense.

He averaged 11.6 points these playoffs and shot 33 percent from 3 on five attempts. Not laser, but he was catching the ball off Murray and Jokic’s penetration and if he punishes the defense, then there’s really no hope.

Grant has a $9.3 million player option for next season which, according to Mike Singer of The Denver Post, he will decline. The report also adds that Grant could be in line for a $14-16 million per year contract this summer.

Grant, who is unrestricted, has the right to sign with any team, but by driving up his value, teams with cap space this offseason (Atlanta, Charlotte, New York, and others) would think twice before committing $15 million annually to a guy who isn’t moving the needle for these rebuilding teams.

It doesn’t matter if Charlotte wants a guy who can capably guard Kawhi Leonard in the playoffs. When’s the next time they face Kawhi in the playoffs? Or the Clippers for that matter? Well beyond a four-year contract to Jerami.

So how does Denver pay Grant?

Conveniently, Mason Plumlee and Millsap’s contracts both expire this season, freeing up around $44 million in space. For the sake of the argument, let’s say Grant signs a four-year, $56 million contract, paying him $14 million annually. That leaves $30 to re-sign Millsap and Plumlee if they so choose.

Plumlee just made a bit above $14 million last season but looking across the league of what backup big men make in the past few seasons, he might have to accept the league doesn’t value him that highly. I see comparable deals in Golden State’s Kevon Looney who is on a three-year, $15 million deal or Boston’s Enes Kanter who is halfway through his two-year, $10 million contract.

That leaves Millsap, backup wing Torrey Craig and Noah Vonleh who was acquired at the deadline. On top of that, they have to pay their 2020 draft pick should they convert it themselves, but more on that later.

Since Murray’s extension kicks in next season, bringing back Grant and Plumlee on the above deals pushes them close to the luxury tax which according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski before the COVID-19 shutdown, would be set at around $139 million per team.

This Nuggets team has avoided dipping into the tax like the plague with the Tim Connolly regime making moves such as the Kenneth Faried trade a few years ago which looks a lot like getting off of money at the expense of tangible assets.

The Nuggets offered Malik Beasley a three-year, $30 million extension last offseason according to ESPN before he switched agents. While Beasley had an up-and-down season and the move could be argued as a way to open up minutes for Michael Porter Jr. (which it did, and it looks smart now), we don’t know how willing the team is to pay a little extra.

(Side note: good luck getting anything more than that this offseason Malik.)

If they do want to dip into the tax, Millsap can likely name his figure. It won’t be in the $30 million-plus realm, but it might be a large, thank you payment for one season as a way to thank the veteran for signing with the team before they even made the playoffs. Connelly and co. seem to like taking care of their players.

If not, and the Nuggets want to low-ball Millsap since he’s just an odd man out age-wise, it might be time to find a new “Vote 4 ” player. Before looking at free agents, not on the team, let’s look at the 2020 NBA Draft and the 22nd pick they picked up in the four-way trade deadline trade.

For those of you playing at home, that’s the Houston Rockets pick they gave up on their way to get Robert Covington.

The latest mock draft from Sir Charles in Charge has Denver taking the 6-foot-6 Desmond Bane from TCU. Bane seems like a solid prospect and everything the NBA wants at the moment with size and shooting ability.

The Nuggets also have my trust with whoever they pick or move the pick for. One of the reasons they’ve been finishing so highly in the stacked Western Conference is, yes, great top-end talent in Jokic and Murray, but also a solid draft record.

Denver drafted Monte Morris, MPJ, Gary Harris, and found Torrey Craig off the scrapheap. All of those guys not only played in the Western Conference Finals but played big minutes. And they drafted Jokic/Murray, of course.

They also drafted Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez, two guys who were in the rotation at some point and had enough value around the league to be considered positive values in the deadline trade.

If they go the route of trading their pick, they could get another Jerami Grant type like last season. For the purposes of this article, I’m going to leave the draft talk to the team and trust that they’re coming out of the green room this season with a smile on their face because they always do.

With a Conference Finals trip under their belt, the Nuggets might be one of the more attractive destinations for ring chasers and veterans on minimum contracts this offseason.

If you’re an older player looking to play a minimized role for a contender, would you rather sit in the corner while LeBron James and Anthony Davis run pick-and-rolls every game? Same for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving isolating on every possession? Same for the Kawhi and Paul George show, plus the bench touches are soaked up by Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell (pending free agency).

No, you wouldn’t is the correct answer. Is there a Wesley Matthews type of player out there who wants to run a million dribble hand-offs or decoys around Nikola Jokic?

Courtney Lee just spent four seasons with his name in trade talks. But now as a free agent, he could come off the bench and hit a couple of 3’s. Same for Marco Belinelli or Garrett Temple (who looks like he’s staying in Brooklyn).

For Craig replacements or depth additions, there’s Jeff Green, DeMarre Carroll, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, or James Ennis.

If none of those names jumps off the page, that’s understandable. The Nuggets have locked themselves into this team, this core both financially and in terms of playing time. That’s not a bad thing because they might have the best center in the world right now and a guard who we now know can drop 50 points whenever he feels like it.

This offseason is about consolidation, bringing back Jerami Grant, a key piece in their success, and either replacing or re-signing Paul Millsap. Jokic is 24 years old, Murray is 23, Harris is 25, Grant is 25, Morris is 24, and MPJ is 21.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we say all those names together three years from now and that’s three years of title contention. Let’s enjoy it.