2020 NBA Draft: Isaac Okoro has his faults, but should be a top 10 pick

A deep dive into NBA Draft prospect Isaac Okoro

An animated Bruce Pearl exclaimed to his Auburn starters during a timeout late in a game against Kentucky.

"“Senior, Senior, Fr…Senior, Senior, Senior!!”"

Isaac Okoro, a 6-foot-6 wing out of Powder Springs, Georgia with makeup beyond his years, fit right into the culture that Pearl and the most accomplished senior class in program history established. As this moment illustrated, Okoro is quite simply a coach’s dream. The 19-year-old is blessed with an immense frame – he’s built like a middle linebacker – and a non-stop motor, which goes into his hard-nosed, defensive-minded approach to the game.

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All of the yelling that still echoes in your ears from those summer camp youth instructors – “Deny the ball!” “Find a body!” “Take a charge!” – are things that Okoro brings to the table every single play. It’s not just fake hustle, either. Isaac Okoro has won his entire life, and he had a real, tangible impact on Auburn’s success even when he wasn’t scoring. He was second on the team in Net Rating, and two of their three worst losses occurred when he was sidelined with a hamstring injury in February.

So how will Okoro’s career shape out in the NBA?

Offensively, Isaac Okoro made his living in the paint during his freshman season with the Tigers. His shot chart (61% of his attempts coming at the rim, with 10% from the mid-range and the remaining 29% from 3-point land) is similar to the likes of Maurice Harkless and Derrick Jones Jr. – two large, under-skilled forwards.

In the early months, Okoro mostly operated as a play-finisher in the team construct – crashing the offensive glass, running out in transition, quick duck-ins. He’d often slide up to the four-man in Auburn’s bench units, where they’d use him as a screen-and-roller with an undersized center (Anfernee McLemore) spacing.

As the season progressed, Okoro began to make his imprint in more of an on-ball role. The rim barrages continued, only these were self-created – which are normally tougher to come by. Isaac Okoro running side pick-and-roll with a live dribble was generally a solid option for the Tigers’ offense. Despite a rudimentary handle, he demonstrated flashes of patience and shiftiness against dropping centers. When defenses switched, Okoro would back the ball out and rampage with a full head of steam, often using a left-to-right pro crossover to get a half-step on the backpedaling big man.

A lot of times that’s all he needs; once Okoro gets his chest into the defender it’s over – he’s just too strong, at least for the college level. Another common move of his – jabbing right and driving left to reject the screen – was a highly effective vessel for these paint attacks. Finishing

The degree to which Isaac Okoro could physically overwhelm his opponents at Auburn was nearly Giannis-like (okay, maybe more like Jimmy Butler). He was highly efficient inside-the-arc as a result – shooting 60.7 percent on 2-pointers and drawing heaps of fouls. Okoro’s an explosive one-footed leaper, particularly when he has a clear run-way to load up (he can jump off two-feet as well), and he’s pretty powerful in a straight line, so there shouldn’t be any worry about him measuring up athletically in the league. His feel for craft finishing was also encouraging, using wrong-foot and inside-hand finishes with some ambidexterity.

Another reason for Pearl being willing to scale up Okoro’s responsibilities was the level of overall decision-making that he showed. None of his passes really jump off the screen, but he always makes the simple play – reversing the ball, driving and kicking to shooters, hit-ahead passes on the break. In pick-and-roll, Okoro would fire darts to the weak-side with ease, counteracting his shaky ball control in tight spaces (he doesn’t have the pocket pass to the roll man in his arsenal right now). The ball just never sticks with Okoro – you rarely see any of the hesitancy or sizing up of the defender that is such a commonplace among young players.

These attributes are nice and all, but they are mostly add-ons to core skills. The music likely stops for Isaac Okoro at the next level as an on-ball creator. The strength advantage will be less pronounced, and opponents will scoot under every screen until further notice. There were already certain moments where he seemed flummoxed by the extra space provided by sagging defenders.

He’ll keep the machine churning, but he’s not going to make advanced reads or manipulate defenders as a playmaker. Okoro’s turnover rate of 15.2 percent was a shade higher than you’d like – many of them on drives like this – and he should be in for a rude awakening with the length and cunning nature of NBA players digging down from the perimeter. He’s still primarily a one-move driver, and this lack of adaptability can lead to some ugly endeavors.

So where does this leave Isaac Okoro on the offensive end? His most glaring weakness – the jump shot – is, unfortunately, a commodity that has never been of greater value in the league. Guys who can’t or won’t shoot routinely get played off the floor in April, May, and June (or in this current twilight-zone state: August, September, and October).

Okoro’s widely described as a gym-rat, but I’d be surprised if his jumper ever becomes above-average for an NBA wing. He’s stiff and mechanical, and his landings are all over the place. While he made a few side-steps and pull-ups off the bounce, I expect the transition to the deeper line to be a rough one for Okoro (especially since he shoots a relatively flat ball). The numbers (20 for 70 from three at Auburn, 67% on free throws in 212 attempts across NCAA, AAU, and FIBA play) cast further gloom over his shooting ability.

This was already an issue at times at Auburn. There was a brief stretch in the schedule where opponents would hide their center on Okoro, often to great success. His decisiveness is critical in these spots, and he displayed a knack for punishing defenses that load up off of him.

Okoro’s still going not going to be respected as a spot-up threat, even if his decision-making separates him from the Luguentz Dorts/Josh Okogies of the world. He’s not a complete non-shooter, but it’s going to take the right situation for Okoro to hold his weight offensively early on: one with a coach willing to go to lineups with creative spacing alignments. An example that comes to mind is when Rick Carlisle used Al-Farouq Aminu as a screen-setter in a four-out setting during the 2014-15 season with the Mavericks. His cutting could also be an intriguing weapon. The problem is that Isaac Okoro may not have as much positional versatility as you’d hope from an NBA wing.

Standing at 6-foot-5 in socks with a 6-foot-8.5 wingspan (with the caveat that these measurements were taken two years ago), Okoro profiles as more of a shooting guard-size, with some of the comps being Lonzo Ball, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brandon Roy in terms of height/length. The low defensive rebound rate (only 3.2 per 40 minutes) is also a cause for concern. But Okoro plays much bigger than size; he’s immovable in the post and boxes out like crazy.

That said, I’m skeptical that Isaac Okoro will be the all-league type of defender that would validate selecting a player of his archetype in the top-five (even in a weak draft). He can credibly guard one-through-four, but I don’t see him as an individual stopper at any position – he doesn’t quite have the foot speed to contain the top guards, or the size to disrupt the top wings.

Additionally, Okoro isn’t really much of a play-maker in help defense. His steal rate of 1.7 percent pales in comparison to sharks such as Andre Iguodala and Kawhi Leonard (he is a good shot-blocker when he gets himself in position, however). Okoro appears to struggle with keeping his head on a swivel, letting far too many possessions unfold while he’s glued to his assignment.

This combined with his one-on-one ability is why I view Okoro as more of an essential cog than a defensive star. Okoro’s best suited at the point of attack – curbing the opposing team’s offensive flow with his ball pressure, tenacity around screens, and capacity to switch – which is still highly valuable. He’d likely be the best perimeter defender on more than a handful of NBA teams.

Putting all of this together, I think the hope for Isaac Okoro is that he develops into a good fourth/fifth starter on a contender in time. It may sound cliché, but Okoro is simply a winner, and he’s going to impact the game in ways that don’t show up in the traditional box-score. His effort-level alone could be a culture setter. It reminds me of Marcus Smart, in a way.

Even if he’s a below-average shooter, Okoro will find a way to make himself useful with his passing and foul-drawing. The scarcity of wings across the league is an important factor here as well. Isaac Okoro may not have the offensive upside to be a top-tier prospect, but I wouldn’t be opposed to selecting him in the 7-10 range.