Golden State Warriors: The most important offseason in recent history

The Golden State Warriors are heading into their most important offseason in recent history

After just having the worst season in the whole league in terms of wins, the Golden State Warriors are in a very unique position, one where they have a very high draft pick but with players returning from injuries, have a championship-level roster ready to contend in the 2020-21 season.

Before getting into the finer details of the season, let’s look at where they’re at right now.

With Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson returning to the court next season, they will go back to having one of the league’s best (if not the best) backcourts. Andrew Wiggins, who played just 12 games in a Warriors uniform is the starting small forward and Draymond Green is the other forward next to Kevon Looney or Marquese Chriss.

Notable players off the bench (by notable, I mean did something substantial last season) are Ky Bowman, Damion Lee, Jordan Poole, and Eric Paschall.

That’s a pretty thin bench, especially since none of them has had the chance to play significant minutes on a good Warriors team.

So that’s already one part of the team that needs upgrading, the bench. If the ball gets rolled out with this squad, it’d be a stretch to wear the ‘Strength in Numbers’ playoff shirts they usually do.

Another part of this team that needs upgrading is the empty hole that Kevin Durant left when he decided to play for the Brooklyn Nets. That’s less of a hole per se but the Warriors have the ammunition to get a big-name player via trade if they so choose to do so and that player/player’s team obliges.

To address the two holes, the Warriors have the second overall pick in the upcoming draft, Minnesota’s 2021 first-round pick obtained in the D’Angelo Russell trade and matching salaries in Wiggins who makes his maximum ($29.5 million in 2020-21), Looney who makes a shade below the taxpayer mid-level exception ($4.82 million in 2020-21) and a trade exception worth $17.2 million from the Andre Igoudala trade.

What’s different about this title is that the Warriors have been the team to beat for the better part of the past decade. Even after losing in the 2016 Finals, the Warriors went out and signed KD and bolstered their bench each of the following seasons with make-good contracts and veterans.

But this year, they’re right up against the hard cap (depending on where the final salary cap falls), meaning they might not even be able to offer anything outside of veteran minimums unless they offload some salaries and they also don’t have the gleam of a Finals run in free agent’s recent memory.

While it’s understandable why they weren’t an elite team last year, it’s much easier for players to talk themselves into a team that was in the playoffs not too long ago, rather than get onto a losing team hoping to go from zero to hero.

I don’t think that will have too much of an effect on potential free agents, it’s not the greatest spot to be in.

Let’s look at the 2020 NBA Draft, the first time the Warriors will have to make a decision.

The latest mock draft from Sir Charles in Charge has the Warriors taking Anthony Edwards out of Georgia with the second-overall pick.

Picking up a guy like Edwards (or anyone with the pick) lets the team take a Tim Duncan/David Robinson approach to teambuilding. The rookie likely won’t help the team in his first few seasons, he can take the torch from Steph as the team’s best player as Father Time makes his mark and the current team ages out of prominence and Edwards grows into his prime.

That’s all fine and dandy, but it helps the team win games in the 2020-21 season the least.

The San Francisco Chronicle’s Connor Letourneau reported back in April 2020 that the team would be open to trading the pick.

This was before the ping pong balls gave them number two and before Minnesota got the first selection and said that they too are open to trading the high selection according to The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor.

That could make a trade complicated because if you’re a team with a good player who wants to be traded (say, Indiana with Victor Oladipo for example), why would you trade with Golden State, taking the risk that your hopeful draftee goes number one when you can just trade with Minnesota and guarantee you get your guy.

The Warriors have been doing the right thing and attaching their name to every draft-eligible player on the planet. You’ll notice that there’s no hyperlink on that sentence because there’s no one place to look when it comes to their interest. Keep in mind next time you see a report that says something like ‘the Warriors [are interested/love/excited] in [draft-eligible player]’. It happens a lot.

But there’s no clear ‘guy’ out there to trade for. Even Oladipo which I used as an example, hasn’t publicly requested a trade from the Pacers. Same for Bradley Beal in Washington. Nor has Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee which has been talked about more than enough.

So, if Minny also wants to trade their pick, there are no real stars on the trade market and no one player in the draft the team loves (seemingly). What do they do?

First thing, hope and pray that another team wants to trade into the draft and it’s not to draft someone they believe the Timberwolves do.

If that fails, then I think the best course of action is to trade down.

To quote Miley Cyrus, it might even be the best of both worlds… (Cringe, I’m sorry).

Golden State has the Igoudala trade exception which can be used to absorb salaries regardless of the team’s salary situation as long as the player fits into the $17.2 million (plus $100k).

The Athletic’s Anthony Slater reported (subscription required) that the Warriors will only trade the exception if there was a “special opportunity”.

Is a special opportunity an average backup? Is it a player on a rookie contract or at that kind of age? They could not be any vaguer.

Some of the best names whose salary is under the exception number are Domantas Sabonis, Marcus Smart, Robert Covington, or Ricky Rubio. There is almost no way those guys are getting moved for what the Warriors could offer, but keep in mind that that’s the ceiling for this contract, you’re not getting a superstar.

Some of the teams with players that fit the exception and a draft pick high enough in this year’s draft to warrant a swap is Chicago and Thaddeus Young, Charlotte and Miles Bridges, Cleveland and Larry Nance Jr., Detroit and Derrick Rose, New York and Mitchell Robinson and Phoenix and Kelly Oubre Jr.

Out of all those names, it’s either that the lower team won’t want to part with their young player for a minimal draft gain or the price is too high for an aging player and it’s probably too rich for Golden State’s palette.

Ahh, that’s what they mean by “special player,” none of those are special.

We’re back to square one: the pick hasn’t been used, there are no superstars on the market and it’s a matter of hoping someone comes to them with a worthy trade.

While I think the best course of action is pick up a veteran (like a player of Rose or Young’s ilk) in a trade down move, add two players; one with upside, one with a tangible value. Take steps back towards ‘Strength in Numbers.’

Drafting someone at number two isn’t the end of the world.

Maybe the draft isn’t as bad as everyone says it is, you pick up a young superstar in the draft, they play a minimal role off the bench in the playoffs and might be one of the rare rookies playing serious post-season minutes (see Herro, Tyler) and they can grow into stardom in the future.

Also, the drafted player will be trade eligible throughout the season and it’s not unlike the Warriors to pick up a player, put them on the cover of SLAM magazine and then move them a few months later…(*cough* D’Angelo *cough*).

The trade market might be a bit dry at the moment, but who knows who will become upset with their situation in the middle of the season. Especially when they know the Golden State Warriors will be sitting there with a recently-drafted rookie, a max salary in Wiggins for matching purposes, and the 2021 Minnesota first for sweetener.

Yes, I did title this article ‘The most important offseason in recent history’ but that doesn’t mean the biggest title-winning move gets made in the offseason.

Assuming the pick gets converted to ‘player X’, there’s still a roster around that needs some serious work.

And with their current construction and salary situation, the only contracts the Warriors are allowed to offer are veteran minimums. Who are the players they should be targeting in that market?

The Warriors are interested in signing Dwight Howard if he doesn’t re-sign with the Lakers according to The Athletic’s Shams Charania.

Dwight would play a very similar role to what he just did for the Lakers in the Finals but be a solid center during the regular season. A big-man rotation of Dwight, Looney, Chriss, and Green (when they want to win games) might be a bit of an overkill but in light of Looney’s salary and the Dubs salaries, it might be best to dump Looney in favor of a cheaper option.

On top of that, maybe it’s best to stock up on big men with Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis doing the damage they just did in their respective playoff runs?

I’d like to point to Danny Leroux and Jared Dubin who on the latest episode of RealGM Radio recommended that teams don’t overreact to one playoff run with prominent big men, there doesn’t need to be such sweeping changes to counter an AD or a Jokic. They likened it to the 2008 offseason when both Boston and Cleveland made moves to counter each other but didn’t even end up meeting and Orlando knocked them both out.

Back to minimums who could join the Dubs:

Does a Paul Millsap or Serge Ibaka-type want to say goodbye to a lot of money to make a title chase? Seems unlikely since they will both have strong markets despite their age and they’d be leaving a lot on the table.

Jae Crowder might’ve been trending towards a veteran’s minimum at 30 years old but he might’ve just played (and yelled) himself into something more lucrative with this Miami run. Also, the Heat will have the means to re-sign him to something a bit richer than the Dubs.

Glenn Robinson III was traded to Philadelphia at the trade deadline this year but played well in a Warriors uniform at the start of the season. He could be an option.

Justin Holiday and Kent Bazemore were both previously on the Dubs roster and both play a position of need for the team needing backup wings (like almost everyone else in the league), but would they get paid more?

Afterward, you really start getting into the elderly territory with Courtney Lee, E’Twaun Moore, Isaiah Thomas, and so on.

Is that enough?

Well, when the rubber meets the road, the second overall pick, the veteran minimum, or maybe even the Igoudala exception player won’t be playing. It comes down to the stars:

Is Steph Curry still at the two-time MVP level?

Can Draymond Green just flick a switch back to his Defensive Player of the Year level?

And how will Klay Thompson come back after a season-ending injury?

Yes, the fifth, sixth, and seventh players on the roster are important, but all the heavy lifting has been done by the Warriors. They still have a core that won the 2014-15 title even though a lot has happened since then.

If they can do it, we might see a perfect ending to one of basketball’s greatest decades. If they can’t, then the team is looking at a very (emphasis on very) expensive team that doesn’t win. Let’s just sit back and enjoy the fireworks either way.