NBA Draft scouting report: Patrick Williams is worth a top 10 pick

Patrick Williams could be worthy of a top 10 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft

What images usually first come to mind about Florida State athletics? For most, it’s all centered around football – Heisman winners in Charlie Ward or Jameis Winston (not Chris Weinke, sorry), prestigious coaches in Bobby Bowden or Jimbo Fisher, the iconic Deion Sanders.

Basketball, long an afterthought in the sporting landscape of Tallahassee, has sort of flipped this on its head in recent years. Leonard Hamilton’s program reached the Elite Eight back in 2018 for the first time in 24 years and has produced first-round picks in three of the last four NBA drafts.

Devin Vassell and Patrick Williams figure to add to this tally in November. Williams, a top-30 five-star recruit, played an integral sixth-man role in his freshman season for the Seminoles. Now that he’s officially one-and-done, how will his professional career unfold?

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We generally equate upside with physical tools, here’s an excerpt about a prospect selected in the top 10 just four years ago:

"“He’s the best athlete in this draft,” one talent evaluator told me a few weeks ago. “And it wouldn’t surprise me if he was the best player in the draft in five years.”"

That player? Marquese Chriss. In reality, potential is more about scarcity than it is about raw athleticism – basketball isn’t played in an empty gym. Between his 6-foot-8, 225 pound frame, 7-foot-plus wingspan, giant hands, and agility on the perimeter and the open floor, Patrick Williams has many attributes desired of the modern-day forward. He also possesses an uncommon mix of ball-handling and shooting for his size.

On the other hand, Williams wasn’t particularly efficient scoring-wise for Florida State, rebounded like a guard, and had 50 turnovers compared to 29 assists total. And that’s not even mentioning his defense, which was predictably scattershot as a young freshman (just turned 19 on August 26). So how does Williams’ intriguing yet unrefined skillset translate on the floor?

Even though Patrick Williams didn’t have a truly defined role on the offensive end for Florida State, it’s clear that he’s an aggressive scorer with the ball. He attempted nearly as many mid-rangers/floaters as shots around the basket (roughly a 46-54% split between the two) – most being of the self-created variety in 4-5 pick-and-rolls or late-clock isolations.

Williams can stop on a dime and gets outstanding elevation, making him nearly immune to contests. While it’s encouraging that he has the confidence to take these looks, most of the time it’s doing the defense a favor by settling. It’s nice to explore the studio space, but Williams would benefit by being more ruthless – using his big body and burst to rampage towards paint.

He has an effective spin-move and touch with both hands once he gets there, though his footwork can be somewhat clumsy. Pat is also a bit more ground-bound in tight spaces than you’d expect, so he could struggle finishing versus size. His play against close-outs is inconsistent as well, with many of his turnovers coming due to pre-determined decisions rather than reading-and-reacting.

One play he’ll put his head down and attack and the next he’ll hoist a 20-footer early in the shot clock (this sequence here). This is where Pat’s offensive game concerns me – it’s almost like the game is moving too fast for him, and he’s just randomly mashing buttons on a video game controller to make up for it. How much of this can just be chalked up to youth/experience?

The bright side is that Williams still has many ways to provide value in a lower-usage role at the NBA level, should these on-ball abilities never materialize into anything. He wasn’t a major threat from beyond the arc at Florida State (just 16 of 50 on the season), but the free-throw numbers (74.4% in 649 attempts since his sophomore year of high school) and aforementioned shot selection are indicators that he’ll grow into a solid spot-up option.

Williams also flashed grab-and-go potential – including some alluring lefty in-and-out dribble moves on the break – and a feel for throwing skip passes and lobs versus a tilted defense. He’s a dynamic cutter, particularly from the baseline. Opposing teams will need to be mindful of keeping a body with him on the backboard.

Williams brings this versatility to the defensive end as well. Although he may not have the quickest feet, he was still comfortable matching up with guards in Florida State’s switching scheme – getting in a stance and using his length and recovery ability to swallow up drives. He’ll be able to hold up physically against pretty much every wing in the league.

On help-side, Pat’s recognition was often behind the play (in a similar vein to the offensive side), but he demonstrated an impressive acumen for timing and verticality as a rim-protector when in position. The home-run plays are clearly there – steals on the perimeter and highlight blocks – though the hope is that he’ll continue to mature into a more controlled, disciplined defender with time.

Between the feel concerns and lack of elite, high-end athleticism, I don’t see Patrick Williams having star upside as a shot-creator. The free-throw rate of just 4.5 attempts per 40 minutes is telling – even the lesser offensively-talented players of his archetype (Jonathan Isaac for example) frequented the charity-stripe at far greater clips. He still has the goods to be a highly impactful player, but more as a glue guy/super role player than a first or second option.

Given his rare blend of skills for his age, I feel confident that Williams will develop into an adequate offensive four-man. The key question is on the defensive end: Just how multi-positional will he be? Right now, Pat isn’t mobile enough laterally to hang with NBA guards. Can he improve his lower-body and horizontal quickness while also staying bulky enough to bang inside?

To me, the answer to this will determine whether Patrick Williams turns into an essential building-block and one of the most valuable players in this class (think near-peak Paul Millsap), a reliable starter/rotation piece (Marvin Williams or JaMychal Green come to mind), or a bench big (think Bobby Portis).

It may be more of a long-term play with him, but this range of outcomes is far more exciting to me than it is with some of the other late-lottery prospects in this class. As of now, I’d likely rate Williams as a borderline top 10 guy, and ahead of his fellow Seminole Devin Vassell.