NBA Draft Scouting Report: Digging into Obi Toppin’s strengths and weaknesses

NBA Draft scouting report: Breaking down Dayton’s Obi Toppin

Obadiah “Obi” Richard Toppin has taken quite the circuitous route to get to this point. Many of his peers from high school – guys like Bam Adebayo, De’Aaron Fox, and Jayson Tatum – are already in line for max rookie extensions, and Toppin hasn’t earned a dime for his talents.

While Tatum – who outages him by exactly one whole day – was busy dunking on The King, Toppin had yet to make his collegiate debut. But the Brooklyn native has never operated on the same timeline as everyone else.

After leading a Dayton team that was projected to finish third in its own conference to third in the country by season’s (abrupt) end – and with it capturing the nation’s imagination in route to a sweep of the player of the year awards – Toppin witnessed his draft prospects take the leap (pun intended) from being a second-round flyer (ok, I’ll stop) to a potential top-five pick.

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Now that he’s carrying this momentum into the next chapter of “The Book of Obadiah,” what can we expect from Obi Toppin in the NBA?

It cannot be understated just how dominant Toppin was this past season. Since 1993, Michael Bradley and Zion Williamson were the only other 20-a-game scorers to match his efficiency from the field. His 107 dunks were the second-most of the past 10 years. Dayton truly reaped the rewards from this offensive engine, lighting up its opponents to the tune of 116.4 points per 100 possessions (second-best in the NCAA).

Just how common are these kinds of meteoric rises? In the words of Albus Dumbledore, “unusual, but not extraordinary.” It’d be wise to take these gaudy numbers with a relative grain of salt. The market for older, more physically-mature players who feasted against NCAA competition has generally corrected itself, with cautionary tales such as Adam Morrison and Evan Turner living in infamy in among draft circles. Unlike most of these players, however, Obi Toppin was outstanding from the get-go as a Flyer.

Toppin is going to be one of the best finishing big men from the moment he steps into the league. He’s a monstrous two-footed leaper, particularly in space, and evokes Blake Griffin in that major destruction is imminent once he reaches his launch point. While Obi may not possess the in-air elasticity of the GOAT alley-oop scorer (Anthony Davis), he’s a tremendous lob threat – this gravity freeing up ball-handlers and shooters out of pick-and-roll.

Obi isn’t quite as dynamic off of one-foot, but his soft touch with both hands allows him to convert in traffic. Toppin’s lethal in transition, consistently outracing his foe end-to-end with breath-taking speed. Some may scoff at all the leaking out/cherry-picking; others will point out that a certain team from Los Angeles just won a championship employing this style of play.

Toppin is also going to hemorrhage points on the defensive side of the floor – the film is an absolute train-wreck. This is where the experience factor comes into play. First, there are issues with recognition. Obi rarely anticipates even the most basic of rotations, often leaving teammates out to dry.

It’s like he’s thinking only in terms of his own individual assignment and not in the broader team construct. Rather than snuffing out opposing actions before they happen, he’ll rely on his leaping ability to get back into the play. Credit the Kansas big man here for gifting Toppin a highlight.

Then there are the physical limitations. For all of Toppin’s zip in a straight line, he’s a rather poor side-to-side athlete. He was hardly ever put to the test in pick-and-roll, but the returns were not encouraging. I would compare him to Karl-Anthony Towns (high/tight hips) in that he struggles to move in a fluid, controlled manner, and often stumbling/losing balance in those split-second reactions as a result.

The difference is that Towns has legitimate NBA center size, while Toppin does not. Even in the Atlantic 10 – a conference that didn’t have a single seven-footer to offer – Obi had problems dealing with the bruising, post-up big men. He’ll concede position too easily for deep seals, allow passes over the top, and jump on every pump-fake. These difficulties will only be exasperated in the NBA – it’s no coincidence that Udoka Azubuike dropped a-then career-high 29 points in the Maui Invitational final. Toppin is also a terrible rebounder – he’ll just flub gimmes for no apparent reason.

Since the idea of Obi Toppin as a rim-protecting defensive anchor is out the window, what exactly is he at the next level? Dependent, offense-first big men are like running backs in the NFL: a dime a dozen. Thomas Bryant went from Lakers’ cast-off to leading the league in two-point percentage in the span of a year (and receiving a pay-day afterwards). Christian Wood is next in waiting.

The Dallas Mavericks thought they would rue the loss of Brendan Wright; little did they know they stumbled upon the software update in Dwight Powell. Securing four seasons of Toppin’s prime (ages 22 through 25) at the rookie scale is nice, but teams at the top of the draft are aiming for more. Is there anything else in Obi’s game that could separate him from this group of players?

Another intriguing feature of the Obi package is the shooting range. Despite a relatively low volume (41.7% on 103 career attempts), Toppin is very willing to launch quick catch-and-shoot 3’s. These aren’t just stationary ones – deep pick-and-pops, fadeaways where his feet aren’t set – and this versatility is what most excites me (this one during Kansas was just bonkers).

On the flip side, tons of his misses were ugly – even when left open. His free-throw shooting (70.6% on 228 career attempts) isn’t the mark of a knock-down guy. Can Toppin’s range be a weapon in the NBA? Absolutely, but I view it as more of an accessory than an essential component of his repertoire (or an offense). In other words, much closer to an Al Horford/Marc Gasol type than a Jaren Jackson Jr./Towns bend-the-defense shooter.

Obi Toppin wasn’t just a play-finisher at Dayton, either. Per Synergy, his most common play type was actually the post-up, where he averaged a stellar 1.01 points per possession (86th percentile). He was also instrumental in the team’s dribble hand-off game, often handling out around the 3-point line. One of the Toppin’s signature actions – faking the pitch when he senses the defense over-playing it – is right out of the Draymond Green playbook (only, if Dray was actually athletic).

But everything Obi does with the ball is a little robotic or stilted. He’ll back his man down through long, plodding post-ups – often starting from way out on the perimeter because he gets pushed there. His face-up game is non-existent. Toppin’s scoring on the low-block is based around two moves: a quick spin baseline or a drop-step into a jump-hook. He doesn’t really counter off these, and usually relies on physically overpowering his matchup right at the goal (not going to happen at the next level).

Dayton’s opponents found success throwing smaller forwards on him, so how is he going to handle a switch in the NBA? Offensive rebounding isn’t a strength of Obi’s (5.2% OREB rate, comparable to Myles Turner and Russell Westbrook in 2019-20). And while Toppin should theoretically have a speed advantage versus NBA centers, his clunky footwork and overall stiffness (similarly to the defensive end) limits his ability to generate clean looks for himself.

Obi’s passing was a pleasant surprise. He’s a very unselfish player – spotting possible double teams early and whipping darts across the floor. But most of his reads/passing windows were so clear and easily defined (since opponents were terrified of him), I wouldn’t necessarily envision a team trusting him in a major facilitating role.

If we can cross off “developing into an offensive hub” as well, then Obi Toppin appears destined to be a 20-minute-a-game center, given his defensive concerns. Is he a complete lost-cause on that end? The one thing optimists can point to with Obi is the lack of high-level experience – that he just needs more game reps and coaching to iron out the deficiencies in timing, rotating, positioning, etc. I wouldn’t put my money on this. Toppin still has a ways to go before he approaches even below-average NBA big man defense, and he didn’t exactly take noticeable strides in-season. The learning curve only gets steeper at the next level; he’s already behind the eight-ball as an undersized center.

What if he can slide down to the four? My hope with Toppin would be that he grows into more than strictly a one-position defender. He was mostly out of his element guarding on the perimeter at Dayton, but perhaps he could become passable here with added core strength and hip flexibility (which would address the lateral movement issues). And maybe Toppin could dip back into his past-life as a guard in order to fit in switch-heavy defensive systems.

An analogy here could be Larry Nance Jr., who somehow wound up playing 65 percent of his minutes at power forward last season (for an admittedly unbalanced, awful Cleveland team). No matter how potent Toppin is offensively, there’s always going to be a hard ceiling on his impact and role due to these weaknesses – big man defense is just too important in the modern NBA.

The general consensus is way too high on Obi Toppin, in my opinion. He’s a mid-first-round prospect to me. How much untapped potential really exists? He’ll turn 23 midway through his rookie year, after all. Obi will be a good back-up center from the jump – one who can start on a few teams and probably won’t close games – but that isn’t the type of player I’d target in the top 10.