NBA Predictions: The Utah Jazz will rise in the Northwest Division
5. Oklahoma City Thunder
Key Additions: George Hill, Al Horford, James Johnson, Justin Jackson, Immanuel Quickley (R)
Key Losses: Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
The Oklahoma City Thunder surprised just about everyone last year by finishing 5th in the West and pushing the Rockets to seven games. However, three of their four key players – Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams – are on different teams now and GM Sam Presti has officially turned the keys over to young phenom Shai-Gilgeous Alexander.
The question Presti must figure out this season: what is SGA’s ceiling? Gilgeous-Alexander is a long rangy guard with some nice offensive game that can get to the cup and punish teams. He’s done nothing but impress in his first two years in the league, averaging 19 points, six rebounds, and three assists per game while shoot in 35 percent from behind the arc. But he spent these seasons as the second or third scoring option on the floor – now, he’ll be the number one guy. How will he respond being the first guy opposing defenses focus on?
Gilgeous-Alexander does have a decent supporting cast around him with George Hill and Al Horford, along with James Johnson, the aging Trevor Ariza, and defensive pest Lou Dort. I’m also excited to see Deonte Burton and Justin Jackson in larger roles, as I see some huge upside in their games.
Last year OKC was the 7th in the NBA defensive efficiency, which makes perfect sense since they were extremely long and created a ton of turnovers. The problem this season will likely be scoring. The Thunder were only a pedestrian 16th in Offensive Efficiency last season, and that was with hyper-efficient scorers like CP3 and Danilo Gallinari on the floor.
While Hill and Horford could remedy that to some degree, I have doubts that they’ll be good enough offensively to compete with the best teams in the West. OKC may surprise people, but with a new coach and a young Gilgeous-Alexander likely going through growing pains as the No. 1 guy, I’m betting that they’ll be a lottery team.
Projected Record: 27-45