5. Brooklyn Nets – 45 wins: UNDER
It’s crazy to think that a team that finished below .500 last year is projected to win almost 63% other games the following year, but that’s the kind of respect Kevin Durant demands. He’s been at times the best player on the planet the last decade and his return should make Brooklyn a formidable playoff contender… but 45 wins is a little too high.
The Nets may have two of the 20 best players in the league, but the rest of the roster isn’t up to snuff with Eastern Conference contenders. I still like Boston, Miami, Milwaukee, Toronto, and a renewed Philly team better than the Nets.
Whether or not the Nets reach that win total will rely a lot on how Kevin Durant plays, who’s coming off missing an entire season from a devastating Achilles injury. The history of great players who suffered an Achilles injury suggests Durant may never be what he once was. Durant is the outliers of all outliers, but don’t expect him to reach that 30 points per game production levels in his first year back.
Don’t get me wrong – the Nets will be very good. But I think it’ll take time for Durant to get back his old game, and it would be foolish for Brooklyn to ride Durant 35-40 minutes a night to a higher Eastern Conference seed. I predict they’ll win a modest 43 games but should be clicking on all cylinders come playoff time.
Of course, if the Nets do manage to get James Harden via trade forget you ever read this.