NBA: 2020-21 regular season win predictions

5. Houston Rockets (with James Harden) (44-28)

If the last seven seasons has taught us anything, it’s that the floor for a James Harden-led team (without the involvement of a Kardashian) is 50 wins; he’s a walking top-five offense. We can talk about the questions about commitment, how the organization has catered to him at every point, but the fact is he’s still somehow getting better at aged 31. New coach Stephen Silas will only enhance this. Christian Wood gives Harden the type of inside/outside threat that he’s never had from the center position. Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker, and Danuel House (for now) are still there, and I wouldn’t be surprised if John Wall is better than Russell Westbrook this season.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (41-31)

Not that it’s saying much, but this is the best roster than Damian Lillard has ever had since he’s been a superstar (so post-LaMarcus Aldridge). This team is perfectly suited to handle the grind that’s going to be the 2020-21 season. Jusuf Nurkic is finally healthy – with tons of depth behind him in Zach Collins, Harry Giles II, and Enes Kanter – and the Lillard/C.J. McCollum pairing is finally surrounded by wings who can credibly defend and hit shots (Robert Covington and Gary Trent Jr., with Rodney Hood providing more offense and Derrick Jones Jr. more defense). Back-up point guard play is still a concern, as is the potential decline the backcourt. Let’s also hope the minutes of Carmelo Anthony are limited.

7. Denver Nuggets (41-31)

I’m selling on all of the Denver Nuggets stock. First off, they were never that good to begin with. Despite finishing top three in the West in both 2019 and 2020, they played at roughly a 49/50 win pace in terms of point differential. The team was getting its doors blown off them by Utah until the second-half of Game 5, when Jamal Murray had an out-of-body experience that lasted most of the rest of the bubble. Let’s see him perform in a normal environment before anointing him as a second all-star next to Nikola Jokic. While I don’t believe the losses of Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee will matter too much (especially since Will Barton is back), the makings are there for potential uneasiness in the locker room.

8. New Orleans Pelicans (39-33)

This is strictly a bet on talent; and that new coach Stan Van Gundy will pluck some of the low-hanging fruit (turnovers, transition defense, fouling) that doomed the 2019-20 New Orleans Pelicans. An in-shape and fully engaged Zion Williamson changed the team last season, and when he’s right can score independent of spacing (shooting is going to be a question for them). Hopefully Steven Adams will give the team more availability than oft-injured Derrick Favors did. For all of his playoff foibles, Eric Bledsoe is still a wonderful regular-season player on both ends. Depth is a concern as well, but one of Kira Lewis Jr., Nickeil Alexander-Walker, or Jaxson Hayes is bound to pop.

9. Phoenix Suns (39-33)

Last year’s Phoenix Suns were all about impressions. They started off 7-4 – with Monty Williams garnering potential coach-of-the-year buzz – and then finished off the season as the story of the bubble, going 8-0 and dazzling with the right combination of shooting, play-making around Devin Booker (and Deandre Ayton). In between then, though? The team was 17-35, ranking 20th in offense and 25th in defense over that span.

While there’s a lot of positives to be taken away from the bubble, the Suns essentially had three impressive wins; the other five were against teams missing multiple starters/stars. How much are we buying the ridiculous play of Cameron Payne and Dario Saric off the bench? It’s officially winning time now that Chris Paul is in town. Given his age and injury history, it’s unreasonable to expect anything close to the Oklahoma City performance.

Overall, I see the Suns as more likely to be in the ninth/tenth seed range than fighting for home-court advantage.

10. Golden State Warriors (36-36)

Unless 2016 peak-of-his-powers Stephen Curry returns, I don’t see how the Golden State Warriors are anything more than average offensively. The Steve Kerr offense was already getting more and more mid-range heavy by the season. Now it’s going to be Kelly Oubre Jr. and Andrew Wiggins – two players with either feel or reliability questions (and inconsistent three-balls) – screening and cutting around Curry and Draymond Green. This team is going to have to make its mark on the defensive end – another tall order with the uncertainty of Green’s play and the fact that rookie James Wiseman will surely play major minutes.

11. San Antonio Spurs (33-39)

12. Minnesota Timberwolves (27-45)

13. Memphis Grizzlies (27-45)

14. Sacramento Kings (24-48)

15. Oklahoma City Thunder (19-53)