A problem with the Milwaukee Bucks’ defense?
Is there a problem with the Milwaukee Bucks’ defense?
I got a hunch and did some stat diving on the Milwaukee Bucks‘ 3-point defense this past week. I know, I know. My articles are typically opinions disguised as facts layered entertainingly enough where people enjoy. It’s not always hard-hitting basketball commentary with tons of Xs and Os.
And yet, I got a hunch.
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Milwaukee Bucks’ 3-point defense: The basics
Mike Budenholzer has built a defensive system that has produced two straight seasons atop the league in defensive rating, five total All-Defensive selections for various Bucks, and the 2019-20 Defensive Player of the Year. Seems like the last defense to poke a hole in, but I HATE IT.
The Bucks run a system that thrives on packing the paint and giving up open ‘inefficient jumpers’. This includes above the break 3’s and basically any mid-range shot on the floor. The issue is that the Bucks always run a help defense that leaves the weak side corner 3 open, an extremely easy shot to make. Based on their record and success, it seems to work.
Even though the Bucks gave up the most made 3’s per game last season, they were just middle of the road in terms of opponent 3-point percentage. Lots of 3’s, not crazy shooting percentages. Just what Budenholzer wants.
Diving a bit deeper
I’m contesting that shooting percentage means NOTHING here. If your opponents are going to make a lot of 3’s, they’re going to beat you. Especially in this NBA. So I dove a little deeper because I wanted to see how many teams had their highest 3-point performance against the Bucks. Lemme break this down for you (keep in mind that this is out of 60-70ish games in 2019-20):
- Six teams made their most 3’s in a 2019-20 game against the Bucks.
- Twelve teams had a top-five 3-point make performance in 2019-20 against the Bucks.
- Sixteen teams had a top-10 3-point make performance in 2019-20 against the Bucks.
Take a look at that last stat for a hot second. That means that over half the league had one of their ten best games out of 60-70 in terms of 3-point shot-making against the Bucks last season. That is really bad. Three teams had TWO of their top-10 games against the Bucks. One of them was of course the Miami Heat who ended up sonning the Bucks in the playoffs last season.
Let’s look at the winning for the Bucks in these types of games. Milwaukee went 1-5 in the six games that teams made their most 3’s against them. That’s basically a third of the team’s losses (17) contributed to these events. Not a single one of those teams had their best 3-point percentage game against the Bucks, and just one of them had a top-five performance. So I go back to PERCENTAGES DON’T MATTER. Buckets do. And the Bucks are giving up too many to be legitimate championship contenders.
Solutions(?)
I already said I’m not an Xs and Os master. But the Bucks defense is not performing to its talent level, and some things need to change. First and foremost, the team needs to be more comfortable switching. A Bud defensive staple is no switches. It works in the regular season to a certain extent, but not in the playoffs. When the game grinds to a halt in the playoffs, teams just throw pick and rolls at you until you fall apart. If you aren’t switching on those screens, you’re giving up open shots and open lanes. Bud has committed a little bit to switching this year, but not nearly to the extent it will take to get players comfortable by the playoffs.
Secondly, don’t have any shame in letting your defensive stars take over. I never understand why Bud doesn’t just point at a player and asks one of his many All-Defensive players to stick to him. No help defense, nothing. You stick to that player the best you can. Jrue Holiday should be glued to every primary ballhandler that the Bucks face. He’s the man that made Damian Lillard realize he had to get way better for God’s sake, it isn’t lazy or too simple to just ask him to stick to a player.
The same goes for Giannis. As much as Bud loves having Giannis be the roamer and disrupt passing lanes, would it kill him to just point at Bam Adebayo or another big and just say “I don’t care what else you do in this game, he does not take over?” I think our two time MVP and recent DPOY can handle that.
Lastly, there may be a little bit of a personnel issue. Brook Lopez made his bread and butter in the NBA with his post play and post defense. The man deserved his First Team All-Defensive berth last season, I’m not arguing that. But he can’t be the center in a modern defense. He is only effective in drop coverage which is FINE until you play a guard that can hit any shot once left on the drop. Eastern Conference players that fall into this category include some of the following: Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and Goran Dragic. They all belong to playoff teams too.
I’m not saying it’s time to give up on Brook or anything. In a perfect world, Bud would realize that Brook is still a top tier post scorer in this league and have him come off the bench as our primary offensive depth. Give the last four minutes of a quarter to Brook against a small lineup, please! The Bucks could do with a more athletic and versatile big in the starting lineup, a Myles Turner type.
That’s all I really have to say on the topic. Yeah, I’m nitpicking the team that has finished record-wise atop the league for two straight seasons including the two-time MVP, but it’s the same team that fails to dominate the same in the playoffs. Maybe the team is a tweak or two away from a title, but I think the issues might run deeper. Thanks for reading! Shoot me a mean message on Twitter if this article got to you.