Andre Drummond’s future with the Cleveland Cavaliers is blurry
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been surprisingly competent this season. They’re currently seventh in the Eastern Conference, boast the league’s second-best defense according to Cleaning the Glass and have somehow stayed in the playoff picture despite injuries to Darius Garland and Collin Sexton.
A large part of those defensive numbers and overall entertainment this season has been Andre Drummond who’s averaging 19.3 points, 15.8 rebounds, three assists while taking 16.5 shots per contest, a career high.
His performance thus far was highlighted in a gritty win against a free-falling New York Knicks squad on the weekend. He racked up 33 points, 23 rebounds, two blocks, and two steals while shooting 10-18 from the floor and 13-19 from the free throw line (!), a fantasy basketball dream.
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But for the entire time we were watching Andre put up incredible numbers, so was one afro-rocking 22-year-old in Jarrett Allen. Allen was sent to Cleveland from the Brooklyn Nets after a four-team trade saw James Harden team up with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn.
It’s telling that once the dust settled on the trade and Twitter had uploaded their photoshopped jerseys, made their jokes and changed their 2K rosters, people started to think: “hmm, their defense is going to take a hit without Allen.”
In a trade where James Harden, one of the best players of the last decade and definite Hall of Famer, was moved, people were worried about losing Jarrett Allen.
It’s somewhat warranted. At just 22-years-old, Allen was already the best center on the roster and had supplanted DeAndre Jordan as the starter (that might not have been the biggest task, but it was for some reason…)
When Allen’s on the court, opponents shoot 2.7 percent worse at the rim according to Cleaning the Glass, good for the top-third percentile in the league but his career average is slightly higher, in the top-20 percentile. Thanks to his wingspan, reaching 7-foot-4, he’s not only forcing opponents to take fewer shots at the rim (55th percentile) but also shots in the mid-range (74th percentile) he’s also elite at not fouling and finishing possessions with a defensive rebound.
A quick rebuttal to all those numbers I just threw on the screen would be: “but doesn’t Andre Drummond do the same thing? I imagine he would since Cleveland is doing a great job on the defensive end this season.”
And to that, I say: “great question reader.”
Andre’s numbers are very weird; opponents are shooting 7.2 percentage points better at the rim when Drummond is on the court as opposed to off per Cleaning the Glass. He’s somehow the third-best big in the league at stopping mid-range attempts behind only Larry Nance and PJ Washington in that category (minimum 350 minutes played). How weird and unsustainable from a Cleveland perspective.
And unlike Allen, Drummond isn’t forcing opponents away from the rim (+1.2 percent more attempts) and mid-range (+2.7 percent more attempts).
There are certainly some areas in which Drummond is better than Allen and he is more adept at scoring and rebounding, Andre is always at or near the top of the league in total rebounds.
Cleveland is also 30th in offense this season and has been worse in the past two weeks while sustaining injuries. This is in the same season when Andre is taking a career-high in shot attempts.
This season he’s posting a 47.5 effective field goal percentage which puts him in the 12th percentile among all big men, right next to veteran Markieff Morris and rookie Isaiah Stewart. On top of that, he’s also posting a career-low in percentage of makes at the rim as well.
His 30-20 game came when the Cavs only had eight active players and if you take away Dean Wade’s 1:51 of game time, that’s a lot of time for Drummond to be on the court. 39:36 to be exact.
Naturally, bringing in a big man in Jarrett Allen who’s posting similar, if not better numbers than the player above him on the depth chart, is a scary proposition for the incumbent.
This is no different.
Andre’s numbers look great this season and he looks like he’s part of the young, exciting core with SexLand, Isaac Okoro, and Kevin Porter Jr who’s yet to play.
But zooming in and the Jarrett Allen acquisition is ominous. It’s not like the Cavs were in any way related to the Harden deal, they purposely got themselves involved to receive the young big man.
Drummond will be an unrestricted free agent this coming offseason since he picked up his $28.7 million player option last offseason. He can re-sign with Cleveland if he wants but he’s completely able to exercise his right and sign elsewhere with no restrictions.
If he walks, it’s not like there’s much of a loss from an asset standpoint for Cleveland since he was traded for Brandon Knight, John Henson, a 2023 second-round pick and probably a lifetime’s supply of high-fives. In the world’s worst episode of Where Are They Now? both Henson and Knight haven’t played a single second of basketball this season.
Before Jarrett Allen came to Cleveland, Drummond and his agent could argue that he is a necessary piece to a playoff-bound team with no real replacement behind him and nothing to do with their cap space. Now, if Drummond wants too much money, Cleveland has an alternative route already on the roster with soon-to-be restricted free agent Allen.
If not Cleveland, then who pays Drummond? While he might’ve thought he was in-line for a big payday a week ago, he might be a little more anxious this time.