NBA: 3 February takeaways and 3 March predictions

NBA March Prediction: Wizards ride momentum into the playoff picture

As someone who bet the over for the Washington Wizards‘ preseason win projections, I’ve been watching far too many of their games and have been mostly disappointed with what I’ve seen. But after a terrible start to the season, both on the court and off of it with health and safety postponements, Washington finally appears to be on the right track.

Since losing to the Knicks on February 12th, the Wizards have won seven out of nine games, with their only losses coming to the LA Clippers and Boston Celtics in the last game of the month.

During that stretch, the Wizards have been the 12th best offense and 4th best defense in the NBA. Not elite, but far better than their 21st offensive rating and 27th best defense for the entire season.

I think the most encouraging part of this for Wizards fans and bettors alike is that it’s happening despite no big changes to the lineup or roster. Davis Bertans has had a good shooting stretch, but his scoring numbers are close to what they’ve been all year and the same goes for everyone else on their roster.

My first guess as an explanation was probably what you’re thinking right now too – easy schedule. But that hasn’t been the case and, in fact, it’s been quite the opposite. In just the past nine games Washington has defeated some of the best teams in the NBA – the Nuggets twice, Celtics, Trail Blazers, and Lakers while only the Lakers were missing key players.

I don’t have a great way to explain why the Wizards have turned it around but they have, and the eye test matches the stats. This is a team playing with exponentially more energy and cohesion than they have up to this point and it’s translating to wins. That plus an extremely weak Eastern Conference leave the Wizards in a position to climb up the standings and head into the All-Star break as a playoff team.