New York Knicks: Shot selection has unlocked the best version of Julius Randle

What’s Julius Randle’s ceiling?

The scariest part for the rest of the NBA is that this is still pretty new for Randle. Assuming this isn’t a “Like Mike” situation and his new perimeter shooting touch doesn’t leave him next season, then he’s only going to get better at operating in this capacity.

When I watch Randle I see someone just scratching the surface of what he can be as an offensive weapon, which is rare to say for someone in his seventh season. But it’s also rare for someone in their seventh season to completely change their offensive attack so I think we have to throw out typical norms and expectations.

I think the easiest way for Randle to take it up another notch is in the pick-and-roll game. It’s the most common play in basketball but Randle has pretty low usage and effectiveness in it. Randle only operates as the role man in 2.2 possessions per game, which is similar usage as role players like Jakob Poeltl and Bobby Portis. And it’s hard to say they should use him more there because Randle ranks in only the 47 percentile as a roller per NBA.com.

But a player with Randle’s scoring ability and passing acumen should be effective there, right? In some of these situations a problem that seems to come up is that he may be falling in love with his mid-range a little too much in situations where he could be more aggressive and punish mismatches at the rim:

I’ll be the first to admit that this play was a disaster from the start. The pass from Rose throws the whole thing off after the Pelicans switch the screen, but Randle still had an isolation opportunity against a smaller guard and let him off the hook by taking a tough baseline fall-away.

You can see Zion Williamson coming over to help if Randle posts up or drives middle, but even if that happens, Randle has an easy pass to an open Rose at the top of the key that will end in either a good look at three or a chance to attack a scrambled defense in rotation. Making defenses pay for switching with aggression and quick decision making is the next step in Randle’s development.

Randle also has room to improve his efficiency in the isolation and post-up game (53rd percentile in isolation, 52nd percentile in the post), but I think that’s more of a reflection on the team construct than Randle himself. The Knicks shoot the 6th highest percentage from 3 as a team but have the fifth-lowest 3-point frequency rate in the league at just 34.2 percent.

It’s great that they make the threes they take at a good rate, but the low frequency is a more telling number and shows that this roster doesn’t have a lot of high-volume shooters on it. Defenses know this too, and it leads to a lot of contested looks for Randle who ends up taking a good number of his shots against defenses who often don’t mind giving up semi-open looks to the supporting cast.

There are flashes of what could be, though. When the Knicks have certain lineups on the floor where spacing is easier to come by, you get a real look into how difficult of a cover Randle is when operating in a less congested half-court.

This lineup features Randle, Taj Gibson, and three guards who each shoot 35 percent or better from 3 (Rose, Barrett, Immanuel Quickly). And if you watch the defense on this you can see that there are some players caught in no-man’s land. Which, to be fair, happens a lot if you’re watching the Pelicans play defense.

James Johnson comes to double Randle and Barrett’s quick recognition and cut to the basket draws Kira Lewis in to help off of Quickley. With Jaxson Hayes glued on Gibson in the dunker spot, this leaves Naji Marshall on an island to try and zone up the weak side and guard against the kick out to either Rose or Quickley. Both are spaced well and Randle skips it to Quickley for the easy catch-and-shoot 3.

The mid-range iso step-back jumpers are fun, but the action from the last clip is the type of play that should excite Knicks fans because it shows an attainable version of a Randle-centric offense. Surrounding him with average to above-average shooting and secondary/tertiary creators capable of attacking closeouts makes the Knicks a much bigger challenge to defend than they are right now.

And, with Leon Rose’s front office calling the shots, Knicks fans can have some level of confidence that the roster construction is in good hands for the first time in a long time. The future is bright in New York, and Julius Randle’s transformation is the main reason why.