2020-21 NBA MVP Guide: Assessing the top-12 candidates

Assessing the top 12 NBA MVP candidates at the end of the season.

The race for the 2020-21 NBA MVP award has been a hot-button topic for seemingly the entire season. Slowly but surely, the public has finally come to the realization that Nikola Jokic is going to take the mantle. Make no mistake about it: this is not one of those “By Default” MVPs.

Jokic is having a historic season for a big man. Let’s layout the cases for each of the top-12 candidates to appear on the ballot.

Note: The cut-off for missed time was at the Joel Embiid/LeBron James line of total minutes played. Apologies to Kevin Durant and James Harden (no, the 290 Houston minutes don’t count), both of whom just didn’t play enough.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo is still a superstar, even if the public at large has soured on him and the Milwaukee Bucks. Here’s how the statistics stack up to his first MVP season when he captured 78 out of 101 first-place votes despite James Harden putting up Jordan-like numbers.

So why isn’t he garnering more MVP buzz? “Giannis fatigue” clearly plays a role, as the last two postseason failures will continue to be etched into voters’ minds until we see him breakthrough.

The Bucks also haven’t been the juggernaut 60-win team of years past. It’s been a strange season for this Milwaukee team; every time they seem to be on a roll they drop an inexplicable game (last week’s blowout loss in San Antonio for example, which potentially cost them the two-seed); there was the five-game losing streak when Jrue Holiday was out due to health and safety protocols.

The drop-off has come on defense, but how much of that is on Giannis?

Jimmy Butler

Jimmy Butler’s incredible season has completely flown under the radar – posting career-highs nearly across the board in statistical categories. His pristine on-off numbers have continued this year, a testament to how he impacts the game on both ends without scoring.

At the same time, Miami has still slogged its way to a pedestrian 111.6 offensive rating. It’s fair to wonder if a more assertive superstar would be capable of propping up a Heat team mired in a (near) season-long shooting slump.

Stephen Curry

He’s back. Stephen Curry has rekindled his 2015-16 unanimous MVP form – leading the league in scoring while breaking efficiency models. He still carries the relentless off-ball gravity that completely unnerves even the most disciplined defenses. Golden State’s offense – free of the James Wiseman shackles – is currently humming on all cylinders.

That said, Steph still has his limits as an on-ball weapon. He’s not going to spoon-feed teammates for layups and dunks by pressuring the rim possession-after-possession. He’s not as quick as he once was. He’s incredibly reliant on the screen-setting and secondary play-making of Draymond Green, whose minutes are tethered (nearly) exclusively to Steph’s.

Luka Doncic

Speaking of a carry job, Luka Doncic has dragged a highly limited Mavericks team to elite offense. Reserves Jalen Brunson and Tim Hardaway Jr. have been the only mainstays in the lineup, as every other Mavs’ rotation player has battled health and safety protocols or injuries. The stats may not show it, but Doncic is clearly a better player. He’s leading the league in usage and shooting at a higher clip from all areas of the court outside of the restricted area.

So what gives? Whether it’s showing up out of shape, the persistent bickering and technical fouls, or the dismal losses (thrice to Sacramento in the past month), something has just felt off with Luka and Dallas all year. The advanced metrics on defense are poor, and the team just hasn’t rediscovered the same magic from 2019-20 that made them an offensive machine.

Joel Embiid

When available, Joel Embiid has arguably been the best player in the NBA this season. He’s developed into a one-man offense on the low-block – the lifeblood of a Philadelphia team starved for shot-creation in the half-court. Opponents don’t dare to venture into the paint on the other end. The Sixers – yes, the number-one seeded Sixers – still crumble when Embiid rests.

Philadelphia is 39-12 when Embiid plays, and those 20 missed games are the main case against him. Another point: just how many of those wins will be remembered as marquee wins? Other than the Lakers game in January and the Jazz game in March, not too many…

Rudy Gobert

Simply put, Rudy Gobert is having a historic level of defensive impact this season. The Jazz sits atop the league in defense, despite having just one other plus defender in the rotation in Royce O’Neale. He’s also highly valuable in his role offensively: setting screens and finishing out of pick-and-roll, sprinting the floor (Rudy’s conditioning is underrated), and crashing the glass.

That’s the catch, though, “in his role.” Gobert is still very limited on that end. Thanks to his lack of skill (18 points on just 27 post-ups total) and lousy hands (prone to flubbing passes in tight windows), he’s a dependent offensive player. Forget the defensive versatility, would Gobert even be able to survive in an ecosystem that isn’t pick-and-roll heavy like Utah?

LeBron James

Still the Best Player in the World, LeBron James was in the midst of another stellar two-way season until Solomon Hill rolling up on his ankle derailed his and (potentially) the Lakers’ season. Overall the Lakers were 29-15 when LeBron suited up, including robust plus/minus numbers regardless of Anthony Davis.

The missed time is obvious, but even when the Lakers were healthy the team was mostly coasting (which makes them even more terrifying). And while James was an MVP front-runner pre-injury, his case was a bit flimsy just based purely on raw production.

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic might be having the best offensive season by a big man since prime Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. He’s a generational passer who has finally relished the apex predator scoring mentality. Jokic’s impact transcends the box score – Denver has a preposterous 121.5 offensive rating with him on the floor – because he doesn’t monopolize the ball (despite leading the league in total touches). This playstyle becomes infectious; guys cut harder, make the extra pass, take smart shots. Oh, and he’s also going to play a full 72.

Unfortunately, offense is only half the game. Many of the all-in-one metrics paint Jokic as a solid defender, but I’m not a believer. The rim protection numbers are grizzly; he’s just not a deterrent out there. Denver often has to resort to more aggressive schemes as result – and as we saw in Games 1-4 in the Utah series, it can get ugly.

Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi Leonard is having one of the least-hyped dominant seasons in recent memory. He hasn’t been this efficient since his San Antonio days, and the play-making continues to take steps forward. While DPOY Kawhi is long in the rearview mirror, he’s still quite good on that end. The Clippers phenomenal performance with Leonard on the court (123.4 offensive rating) has been well-documented, but the drop-off isn’t as drastic as you’d expect once you remove Paul George (who’d potentially be a stealth dark-horse candidate if he wasn’t the second-best player on his own team) from the equation. It’s not like the Clippers have been rolling out a stacked lineup on a nightly basis either…

At just 52 games played, Kawhi is on the low side compared to most of these other candidates. The Clippers have ridden the wave of (unsustainable?) 3-point shooting all year long. What happens when things tense up come playoff time? Leonard’s clutch-time numbers stats are quite abysmal.

Damian Lillard

The Portland Trail Blazers season could have easily gone off the rails. C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic missed about two months at the same time. Derrick Jones Jr. never worked out. The bench was a disaster. Terry Stotts appears to be a dead man walking. But Damian Lillard soldiered on, and the Blazers are 41-30. Dame has managed to sustain this heavy usage, while also maintaining wonderful efficiency. Although the clutch numbers have tapered off since a torrid start to the campaign, Lillard has been the most productive player in the NBA in these situations

Despite Dame’s brilliance, Portland ranks just 11th in Net Rating this season. The issue has been the defense, and Lillard remains a major culprit. He also had a very rough month of April – averaging just 23 points a game on 54.1 percent true shooting – and the Blazers have been flirting with the play-in ever since.

Chris Paul

To make the case for Chris Paul, one would have to argue that his cultural impact is so profound that it cannot be ignored. This year’s Suns have a degree of professionalism and seriousness that wasn’t remotely present before. They don’t take nights off; they run their actions crisply and with purpose, they communicate on defense. Lineups with Paul and without Devin Booker have thrived.

But there really isn’t a statistical argument for having Chris Paul in this discussion. He was never an indomitable scorer, but now he never gets to the rim. And he simply doesn’t have to carry the load (both in terms of usage and minutes) of a Luka Doncic or a Damian Lillard, just to name two examples. Phoenix with Devin Booker on the floor and Chris Paul off have lit it up.

Julius Randle

Julius Randle and the New York Knicks have been one of the stories of the NBA this season. About half of his minutes coincide with two non-threats on the court (Elfrid Payton and a traditional center), and he’s managed to keep these groups afloat offensively thanks to ridiculous jump shooting and improved decision-making. This breakout by Randle has allowed Tom Thibodeau to play his preferred brand of rugged, defensive-oriented basketball.

That’s been the driver of the Knicks’ success, though: defense. The team checks in at 24th on offense, and Randle’s on-off splits aren’t as rosy as most of the other candidates. He’s also not particularly efficient (below average in true shooting) due to an unhealthy shot diet of just 23 percent frequency around the basket.

Next. NBA Power Rankings: Can anyone beat the healthy Nets; Bubble Heat back?. dark

My Final Ballot:

Nikola Jokic
Stephen Curry
Luka Doncic
Joel Embiid
Kawhi Leonard

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