Bucks-Nets: Is this the same old Milwaukee Bucks?

New Year, but it might be the same old Milwaukee Bucks.

Back in November – with the Giannis Antetokounmpo’s supermax decision looming – the Milwaukee Bucks put all their chips on the table by consolidating Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, and a mountain of draft picks into Jrue Holiday and nearly executing a sign-and-trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic.

Cruising to 60 wins in the regular season was no longer enough. In the words of Steve Ballmer (and Kawhi Leonard), it was time to “get that Larry O’B.”

Fast-forward 9 months and the Bucks appear to be in dire straits in the second round vs. Brooklyn. For the third year in a row, Milwaukee’s offense has cratered deeper into the playoffs. This team was supposed to be different; the Miami series a major step towards validation of the Holiday-Bledsoe swap and the schematic changes (subscription required).

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Instead, they’ve been held to 103 points in 107 possessions against a Kevin Durant-Blake Griffin front-line. So is this just a rough two-game stretch, or is it emblematic of something deeper and more overarching – the same old Milwaukee Bucks?

No, they won’t continue to shoot this poorly. As Kevin Pelton of ESPN noted, the Bucks generated fine looks in Game 1 based on Second Spectrum tracking data; they just failed to convert. In Game 2, Khris Middleton had a nightmare performance. You tell me if that will continue. That said, cold shooting was not the reason for Milwaukee trailing by 27 in the first half. The first two games marked a continuation of a trend stemming from the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals. Here’s why:

Giannis Antetokounmpo is not a No. 1 option

Two years ago, it was the Raptors’ “Giannis Wall.” Last year, it was hard stunts and gapping. This time around, it’s…Blake Griffin clamps? The reality is, this Nets team isn’t really doing anything profound to slow down Giannis. Maintaining game-plan discipline is key against Giannis, a transcendent superstar who has a few glaring flaws in his offensive repertoire – which get exposed come playoff time.

Griffin may be a lousy defender, but he’s a highly intelligent big body capable of matching the Greek Freak’s brute force. He led the league in charges drawn. Watch Blake on this play give ground to Antetokounmpo, anticipate the spin move, and then stay down once he lowers the shoulder. And while Giannis’ turnaround jumper has (very) slowly come along, he still hasn’t added the necessary level of craft to his game – the off-speed pitch to his fastball.

As Zach Lowe and others have noted, his ultimate dynasty is probably closer to Anthony Davis than LeBron James. The last two-plus years of postseason basketball have shown us that Giannis as a primary initiator reached its limits. Mike Budenholzer and the Bucks know this too, which is why he set more screens than ever this season, per Second Spectrum. This brings us to our next point…

The pick-and-roll is not working

The Nets have zero fear of the Milwaukee pick-and-roll attack, full stop. Look at how far the big is dropping back; coinciding with any kind of pull-up jumper. The disrespect goes even further than that, however, as the Nets (Kyrie Irving especially) are often going under on Jrue Holiday – openly daring him to shoot.

It doesn’t just stop there. Brooklyn is doing a phenomenal job of not overreacting to Giannis catching the rock around the free-throw line. If he wants to take floaters with Irving and Kevin Durant raining fire on the other end, then all power to him. What they won’t do is grant him a full head of steam by pressing further away from the basket.

And with Milwaukee nearly always occupying the dunker’s spot, the Nets have additional fortification on the back-line (oftentimes Durant, a long help-defender) to dissuade any type of rim pressure – this is where the loss of Donte DiVincenzo stings. It’s no coincidence that the Bucks took close to double the attempts in the short-midrange area (4 to 14 feet) versus at the basket in Game 2.

Middleton and Holiday need to make Brooklyn pay for this strategy. If they drain enough jumpers perhaps the Nets will crack and things will open up. This leads to another issue…

Milwaukee’s overall lack of offensive IQ

These last two seasons, Khris Middleton has been Milwaukee’s go-to pick-and-roll ball-handler, which is…kind of an issue. It represents a larger, more fatal weakness with this Bucks’ roster that has played a major role in the playoff downfalls.

The Bucks are a terrible passing team. Giannis surrounded by shooting is enough to create humongous windows…which they still routinely miss. Against better and more focused defenses, these avenues only shrink, and the missed opportunities add up over time. Brook Lopez – all these years later – is still a nice scorer in the post, but how can you feature someone the opponent knows will never, ever pass?

It’s not just about playmaking, either. In these first two games, Milwaukee had too many aimless possessions where they seemed disorganized. With Claxton sagging off him, Antetokounmpo begins the Draymond Green maneuver of setting a quick screen to free up a shooter, only Middleton goes rogue. Brooklyn in general is getting away with far too many precarious switches – a smarter team would punish this. Instead, this is a turnover.

So is it the same old Milwaukee Bucks? That was my fear with the Jrue Holiday trade; that it was a big upgrade over Eric Bledsoe, but not meaningful enough because it didn’t address any of these issues involving the playoff half-court offense. We knew that KD and Kyrie could chew up the drop coverage; it’s the offense that has truly disappointed me thus far. Let’s see if they can re-group at home and climb back into this series.