Los Angeles Lakers: Does it matter that Russell Westbrook isn’t a ‘fit’?

Russell Westbrook isn’t an ideal “fit” for the Los Angeles Lakers, but does it even matter? 

The Los Angeles Lakers completed a blockbuster trade on NBA Draft night, acquiring point guard Russell Westbrook and two future second-round picks from the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, and the 22nd pick in the NBA Draft.

It was a move that dominated the Twittersphere as much as it was the focus of derision for much of the wider basketball intelligentsia. A transaction that perfectly captures the divide between reactionary media figures in love with big names and star pairings and the analytics community more concerned with questions of “fit” and versatility beyond the headline.

For the former, the trade to acquire Westbrook means the Lakers have succeeded in stacking their roster with three MVP-level talents; a fact which far outweighs any consideration over the guard’s inability to hit an outside shot with any regularity, or the nearly $91 million (!!) he is owed over the next two seasons.

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Considering the advancing age of LeBron James and the need for Los Angeles to fill the point guard position to help alleviate some of the ball-handling strains James has endured over the past 18 months, the arrival of Westbrook in Tinseltown means the Lakers can now boast another lead ball-handler who commands as much respect from his teammates as James does.

As if that weren’t enough, Westbrook’s sheer ferociousness and all-out drive may prove to be the perfect remedy needed to shake Los Angeles out of the post-championship complacency that seems to have enveloped much of the roster following the NBA Bubble.

Sterling resume aside, however, the latter group of analysts appears far more concerned with the strategic fit of Westbrook on a team that entered the offseason in need of shooting rather than another rim-runner.

Despite ranking ninth in the league in transition offense, according to tracking data from Synergy Sports, the Lakers often stagnated in the halfcourt when deprived of the open lanes afforded to them on the break.

Led by Dennis Schroeder – who initiated the offense more than any other player besides James – the Lakers, like almost every other team in the league, relied on a pick-and-roll offense in which the ball handler kept the ball when confined to slower sets.

Rewatch any of LA’s regular-season matchups and what you’re sure to see is either Anthony Davis or the recently departed Harrell begin a play by setting a pick for Schroder near the wing. And like clockwork, defenses most often responded by dropping their defenders towards the paint in hopes of mitigating the Lakers’ size advantage in the interior, as well as building a wall to deter Schroder towards the midrange.

At their best, Los Angeles would rely on Schroder’s quick first step to get the retreating defender’s on their backheel and shaded towards the driving guard’s direction before dishing the ball back out towards a diving Davis who found himself with prime position to score or take advantage of the rotating opposition with another quick pass out to the corner.

However, what most often occurred is that Schroder and the Lakers would come up short when hoping to beat defenders off the dribble, failing to get an overreaction and instead seek to punish teams for the space allowed in front of them. Ending over 21 percent of their possessions with spot-up jump shots, according to Synergy, the Lakers shot an unspectacular 37.7 percent from the field and ranked only 20th in the league in such sets.

Paced by such an inefficient go-to move, as well as a series of injuries that hampered their effectiveness,  Los Angeles ranked a measly 23rd in total offense during the 72-game regular season and didn’t feature a single lineup that ranked in the top-15 in the league, per NBA.com.

Replacing Schroder’s skill set with Westbrook’s only serves to further cloud the picture.

Russell Westbrook’s “fit” with the Los Angeles Lakers

Suiting up for his fourth team over the last four seasons, the Lakers will acquire a player in Westbrook that shockingly fell to the 38th percentile of all offensive players in the league, according to Cleaning the Glass. While his outside shooting actually improved over the last season to a not horrendous 31 percent, Westbrook’s production in the mid-range cratered, going from +8.8 percent and the 99th percentile to a negative 1.8% and the 38th percentile over the same span.

Most concerning, though, was that Westbrook’s dominance at the rim seems to have evaporated as well, as the point guard failed to even average a point per possession on drives to the rim, long the bread and butter of his game.

Without the benefit of two of the most important facets in his arsenal, Russ was barely a positive contributor in Washington – a +0.6, according to Cleaning the Glass – saved only by a stout defensive presence that harnessed his size and athleticism to work well in the Wizards’ switching scheme while holding opponents to nearly three points worse than their average mark.

Unfortunately for the Lakers, while Westbrook represents a meaningful upgrade over Schroder on the defensive side of the court – who was largely an average defender in LA – he does nothing to solve their aforementioned issues on the offensive side of the basketball and likely makes them more complicated.

Most pressing will be the question of how often Frank Vogel and company choose to employ Davis at the center position to accommodate Westbrook’s preference for five-out basketball.

Judging from what we saw in Houston during the micro-ball experiment, give Russ room to run, and his driving numbers will likely (hopefully?) come back to life, but station a big near the lane, and he’s prone to repeatedly bashing his body against the same wall with diminishing returns.

As deadly as such a potential lineup may turn out to be for the Lakers – who were a +16.9 with AD at the five – Davis’ reticence towards shouldering the weight of being the lone big man may prove to be the most significant factor in LA’s lineup construction. In the 36 games that Davis was active, the Lakers played a mere 225 possessions with the Brow at the center position.

Should Davis make it through the season relatively unscathed, the Lakers coaching staff will almost certainly have to convince the former No. 1 overall pick to increase that total substantially. A discussion that may not be all that pleasant given AD’s past preferences.

Which, of course, isn’t to say that the Lakers Westbrook’s experiment is bound for failure. After all, as subpar as the Schroder experiment may have been at times, Los Angeles would have likely been heavy favorites to emerge from the Western Conference had Davis not sustained a groin strain that sidelined him during the first round against the Phoenix Suns.

Even with Westbrook’s less than ideal fit in the backcourt, any team surrounding James and Davis must be considered in the top-tier of contenders for the NBA Finals. Adding to the mix the reported veterans ready to sign minimum deals to chase a ring inside Staples Center means that the Lakers’ job filling out the rest of the roster might prove easier than first thought in the aftermath of the trade.

Whichever way the season ultimately turns out for Los Angeles, however, we are all but certain to see one of the two media groups claim the result as proof that their worldview has been right all along.

Should the Lakers fail to capture title No. 18, the analytics community will take it as definitive proof that Los Angeles was more interested in a big name acquisition than thinking through the ramifications of adding a flawed star to a roster in sore need of positional help.

And if the experiment works, we will be subject to an endless array of talk-radio takes that proclaim the only thing that matters in the league is raw talent, guile, toughness, and perhaps a dash of Lakers exceptionalism.

The truth, most likely, will always be far more complicated than that. So too, is Russell Westbrook.