NBA: A way-too-early deep dive into the 2021-22 MVP award race

NBA MVP odds: Luka Doncic +350

Luka enters the 2021-22 season as the NBA MVP favorite, as he did a year ago. What’s the difference between last season and this season you ask? Well, in sports, if a player or team is being hyped up a lot during the off-season, they usually don’t live up to the hype until the year after. Let me explain.

Going into last season, Luka was the favorite to win the MVP. After his historic second year in the league, many NBA experts and fans believed that Luka would take the next step in his career and claim his stake as one, if not the best player in the league. However, what people didn’t account for was the unexpected start to the 2020-21 season. A shortened off-season and an unexpected early start to the season caused many players to be out of shape when the season began, including Luka. As a result, Luka got off to a slow start. The Mavs struggled and Luka’s MVP buzz quickly died down.

What makes this year different is that Luka has a full off-season to prepare for the upcoming season. Plus, more importantly, Luka has to be more motivated than ever.

The Mavs are coming off back-to-back first-round playoff exits to the LA Clippers. In both series the Mavs were underdogs, but they had real shots to win each of those series. Plus, this summer, Luka is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Spain in the Olympic semi-finals. Slovenia then lost to Patty Mills and Australia in the bronze medal game, missing out on the country’s first-ever medal in basketball.

After all this losing and disappointment, you can bet your ass that Luka is more motivated than ever to come out of the gates balling. Especially after receiving so much hate last season for coming into the season out of shape.

Also, it goes back to what I was saying before: in sports, it always happens a year after you expect. Remember back in 2018, when the Cleveland Browns ended the season on a six-game winning streak, and everyone was raving about Baker Mayfield? The Browns then went into the offseason with a lot of optimism about their future. They then made huge offseason acquisitions by signing Jarvis Landry and trading for Odell Beckham Jr.

During the lead-up to the 2019 season, everyone was high on the Browns, even picking them to make the playoffs. Well, the Browns went 6-10 in 2019, disappointed many, and missed the playoffs. Then a year later, with the hype died down a bit, the Browns went 11-5, made the playoffs, beat the Steelers during Wildcard weekend, and gave the Kansas City Chiefs all that they could handle in the Divisional round.

What is another example? During the 2019-20 season, the Milwaukee Bucks dominated the sport. They were on pace to have one of the greatest regular seasons a team has ever had. Then the pandemic happened. The Bucks were clearly a different team in the bubble than they were before it. Milwaukee got bounced in the second round of the playoffs, losing 4-1 to the Miami Heat. The Bucks then came back last season and won the finals. Granted, a lot had to go right for the Bucks to take home the Larry O’Brien trophy, but they still did it.

The point I’m trying to get across with these examples is that disappointment, embarrassment, perceived failure, and losing are the biggest motivators for athletes, especially the great ones.

After the Heat got embarrassed by the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 NBA Finals, LeBron James came back the next year, won the MVP, led his team to the NBA Finals, and won Finals MVP.

After back-to-back playoff exits to the “Bad Boy” Detroit Pistons, Michael Jordan hit the weight room in the summer of 1990 and came into the season with a vengeance. Jordan went on to win his first MVP award, leading his team to the Finals where they beat the Los Angeles Lakers.

After Magic Johnson was dubbed “Tragic Johnson” after the Lakers Finals loss to the Boston Celtics in 1984, he came back in 1985 and led the Lake Show back to the Finals, and beat the Celtics to claim his third title.

The great ones find ways to get better. Losing bugs them more than the regular athlete.  Embarrassment, failure, disappointment, are even bigger motivators for these guys. Luka and the Mavs certainly didn’t embarrass themselves in the playoffs season and Luka balled out in the Olympics, leading Slovenia to have their best-ever showing in the Olympic basketball. However, the way that the Mavs lost in the playoffs: a devastating game seven loss, and how Slovenia lost: a buzzer-beating lay-up by Spain, has to gnaw away at Luka.

With all that being said, there is an argument to be made against Luka. as next year’s MVP. That argument has to do with how stacked the Western Conference is. Presumably, if Luka were to win the MVP, the Mavs would need to finish in the top half of the Western Conference playoffs. Many fans and experts doubt whether or not the Mavs can do this. Well, I’m here to tell you, not only that they can, but they will finish as a top-four seed in the West. Let me explain.

The Lakers were the only team, in my opinion, that made any significant improvements by adding Russell Westbrook and a mix of veterans and young players. There is also the Golden State Warriors, who will get Klay Thompson back from injury. The Warriors also added a couple of lottery picks which, along with Klay’s return, could propel them back into title contention. Other than those two teams though, everyone in the West has, pretty much, the same roster as they did last year.

The Utah Jazz, the Phoenix Suns, and the Portland Trail Blazers bring back their main cores. The Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers also bring back their main core, but each team will be without very important players for a majority of the season in Jamal Murray and Kawaii Leonard.

Having said that, the Mavs didn’t make any real significant moves this off-season either. They re-signed both Tim Haraday jr. and Boban Marjanoic, traded Josh Richardson to Boston for Moses Brown, and signed free agents Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown. But, if Luka takes a leap, then it’s reasonable to think that the Mavs could finish the regular season as a top three or four seed, especially considering two of the top teams in the west will be without two of their best players in Jamal and Kawaii.

I’m betting on Luka coming into the 2021-22 season more motivated than ever. If I were you, I’d bet everything on “The Don” to take home the MVP award next season. Not just because he’s the best option, but because the guys below him don’t really create that narrative that MVP voters seem to relish. Well, except for the next guy.