LeBron James’ inevitable decline.
For the better part of the past two decades, LeBron James has been the face of the NBA. For better or worse, the NBA and LeBron have become one with each other and it wasn’t until last season that many began to truly question whether LeBron was still the best player on the planet.
While the answer to that question is quite irrelevant, especially considering LeBron’s legacy is quite cemented, there is one that continues to creep into my mind at the start of every season: what will LeBron’s inevitable decline look like, and will it come this season?
LeBron will be 37 years old by the time the playoffs start in 2022 and it’s time to come to the realization that we could very well be enjoying the last few seasons of LeBron’s career. What’s even more somber is the fact that LeBron is already past his prime.
So, the real question we should be asking is how will the decline look like for LeBron?
It’s not an easy question to answer, but for context, I think it’s important that we look back at other greats of the past and see how their inevitable declines appeared in their game.
There’s not another player that LeBron has been compared to most in his career than Michael Jordan. But that’s not entirely fair. For one, Jordan retired (for the second time) when he was 34. LeBron has already played two more full seasons since that age and actually added a title too.
Still, even for the great Jordan, the decline was seen during that age 34 season. Even if not many are willing to admit it. During that season, Jordan still averaged 29 points per game but he did see a regression in both rebounding and assists.
Additionally, Jordan posted near career lows in both field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. He was able to turn it on during the playoffs but it was clear that the regular season was beginning to wear on his body.
So much so that Jordan elected to retire after the season.
He returned to the NBA, with the Washington Wizards, at the age of 38, but was not close to his former self. And I’m not sure anyone truly expected him to be. Jordan still averaged 20-plus points per game but was not efficient and didn’t have the impact on the game overall that he had during his days with the Chicago Bulls.
I believe we will see a similar decline for LeBron.
The problem is, LeBron is coming off a season in which he had a better percentage both from the field overall and 3-point range than the season previously. He’s also still averaging over seven assists and rebounds per game.
There has been a regression in terms of his athleticism and his ability to flash that superhuman ability on a nightly basis, but he’s still one of the most consistent scorers in the league and is still one of the most impactful players on both ends of the floor.
Although, especially in today’s NBA, perhaps the decline won’t even come with the shooting consistencies. Jordan was playing in a completely different NBA than LeBron is currently playing in. LeBron can continue to improve his jump-shooting and still be a consistent offensive player.
What makes LeBron special and what has made him special and unique throughout his career has been his ability to be one of the most athletic players on both ends of the floor, along with the ability to make the players around him better.
Perhaps those are the areas that will suffer the most when the decline begins – where LeBron won’t be able to cover up the mistakes of his teammates and where he won’t be able to continue to dominate defensively on a consistent basis.
And maybe that’s what we’re already seeing. Especially in the playoffs this past season, LeBron’s teammates let him down. He wasn’t able to raise the level of the supporting cast after Anthony Davis’ injury and he looked more human than ever in that series.
While his injury did have a lot to do with that, there has to be another level to that. I don’t think the Los Angeles Lakers‘ inability to beat the Suns after Davis’ injury was just simple reasoning of unavailability.
So what should we look for when LeBron begins to decline?
For one, a drop in athleticism. That’s probably something that will come first if it’s not something that we’re already seeing with LeBron. Second, we’ll likely begin to see a drop in his scoring in the paint.
LeBron has become good enough of a 3-point shooter where he’ll still be an effective scorer, but will likely see a drop in overall aggressiveness in transition and in and around the paint when he isn’t posting up.
Will the signs become more evident this season? Perhaps. But that’s why LeBron has been pushing for more help around him. Even if his inevitable decline does begin to show itself this season, he’ll still be in a position to compete as long as the supporting cast around him is good enough. Right now, with the Lakers, it is.