Miami Heat: Has Duncan Robinson become overrated?

Does the Miami Heat have one of the most overrated players in the league? 

Over the past couple of seasons, an argument could be made that, apart from the stars, there was no better value contract out there than Duncan Robinson. Now, after signing a five-year, $90 million contract with the Miami Heat, it appears that he could fall in the category of overrated players.

In fact, Bleacher Report recently took it a step further. Perhaps they didn’t say verbatim that Robinson was overrated, but they did say that he currently has the worst contract on the Heat roster.

Well, maybe that is essentially saying that. Just a different way.

Is Duncan Robinson overrated after getting paid?

So, the question is, has Robinson gone from being one of the most overlooked and underrated players in the league to possibly being overrated and overpaid?

To answer this question, we have to make some comparisons to payers that are on similar contracts. For the 2021-22 NBA season, Robinson is slated to make nearly $16 million. Though, his salary number steadily rises over the course of the contract. For the sake of fairness, let’s just compare his year average over the life of the contract.

That comes out to $18 million over the next five seasons. Now, let’s explore other players that are sated to make $18 million this season.

Here is a list of players that are making between $17.5 million to $18.7 million this season:

  • Lonzo Ball
  • Eric Gordon
  • Eric Bledsoe
  • Myles Turner
  • Bogdan Bogdanovic
  • Terry Rozier
  • Ricky Rubio
  • Caris LeVert

Interestingly enough, of those players listed, maybe four or five players are hands-down “better” than Robinson. And I’m not sure if any of those players are better at their best attribute as Robinson is at his.

When he’s healthy and not in a slump, you can make the argument that Robinson is the second or third best shooter in the league. I’ll give Stephen Curry the top spot, but Robinson is far off. Over the past two seasons, as he’s grown to be an integral part of the Heat’s offensive game, he’s averaged over 40 percent shooting from 3-point range.

And he continues to improve in different facets of his game. Will he ever be a defensive stopper? No. Will he ever be a great 1-on-1 offense threat? Probably not. But he’s big, long, and has grown as a player in each of the past two seasons. Along with being one of the best 3-point shooters in the league, it would be outlandish to say that Robinson is overrated because of a contract extension.

The Heat has high hopes of being contenders this season. Even after adding Kyle Lowry and a few role players, Robinson will still play a vital role in this team’s success. If Robinson has another great year offensively, Miami is going to be that much more dangerous on that end of the floor.

Over the past two seasons, the Heat’s offense has fed off Robinson’s effectiveness as a player. When he struggles, the Heat’s offense struggles. When he’s impossible to defend, the Heat’s offense also seems impossible to defend.

Those that believe that Robinson is overrated or has the worst contract on the Heat simply haven’t been paying attention to this team over the past two seasons. And it’s a shame because Robinson is one of the best feel-good stories in today’s game.