The best-case scenario for the Houston Rockets
It would be unfair to Rockets fans, and NBA fans, for that matter, to make the assumption that the Rockets could reach the NBA Playoffs this season. A young team so recently having bottomed out in the league standings, even with the addition of Jalen Green, does not simply walk into the postseason.
What the Rockets can do, however, is field a middle-of-the-pack team that can play to the tune of ≈500 basketball. Last season’s Western Conference standings shook out leaving just one team with a winning record (GSW) out of the NBA Playoffs. The focus this season for Houston now that John Wall’s starting spot has been swept away should be to give Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green the keys to the offense, however clunky that offense may be, and to develop the young core that general manager Rafael Stone has assembled. Houston’s rookies last season, Jae’Sean Tate (All-Rookie 1st Team) and Kenyon Martin Jr., put together impressive rookie campaigns.
Tate’s role became that of the undersized point-power-forward, facilitating the ball at a high level and keeping plays alive by hustling, something reinforced by his appearing in all but two games for the Rockets last season. Martin Jr.’s already impressive athleticism allowed for him to regularly posterize opponents and send shots back against the NBA’s tallest players.
His three-point shot was much improved from his time at IMG Academy, converting 36.5% of his attempts from deep, all of which came off assists. Both are undersized forwards that play well above their measurements and are likely to see even more time on the floor this season with the prioritized youth movement. Expect to see the two sophomore forwards improve upon their three-point efficiency, playmaking responsibility, and defensive awareness as they are likely to spend a fair amount of time at the four spot.
It goes without saying that Christian Wood’s play up until his injury last season was All-Star caliber, posting a line of 21/9/2 on 51/37/63 splits. Wood is a true three-level-scoring big, boasting a 6-foot-10 frame and 7-foot-2 wingspan which allowed him to regularly reject shots as both the on-ball and help defender. Wood still has a way to go in adding bulk to his frame in order to give opposing bigs trouble in the post, one of the more glaring holes in his game last season, but with the addition of Daniel Theis, the Houston Rockets may be able to give Wood some help on the block.
The player with the most potential to impress this season for Houston may not be Jalen Green, however. 16th overall pick Şengün was named the MVP of the Turkish BSL at the age of 18, and his game has given the Rockets reason to look forward to his future. Owing much of his success to a post-game straight out of the history books, Şengün has shown flashes of brilliance akin to that of Domantas Sabonis. Şengün still has work to do on the defensive end, but his impressive rebounding and short-roll passing add folds to an already superb offensive game.
If things are to go the Rockets’ way, the likes of Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Şengün, Jae’Sean Tate, Kenyon Martin Jr., and Christian Wood will be the focal point of the game plan. Even if their prioritized development results in losing basketball, the objective should be to develop cohesiveness as a team, and finding ways to integrate Houston’s less-long term pieces into the system without sacrificing the improvement of their younger players. Effectively, anyone older than Christian Wood should be playing altruistic basketball with their younger teammates in mind.
The Rockets, though their draft odds would indeed be boosted by yet another bottom-of-the-pile record, have enough pieces to push far enough into the Western Conference to prove their worth. Provided that players remain healthy and learn to play within new roles and systems, Houston could potentially reach the brink of the play-in tournament.
Yet, as compelling a series it would be to see the young Rockets fight for a playoff position, their time may be better spent coming short of the play-in tournament.
Best-case scenario: 33-49 (11-13th in Western Conference, 22-26th in NBA)