Should the Miami Heat start Tyler Herro over Duncan Robinson?
Through the first month of the season, the Miami Heat has been quite impressive. They have a top 5 offense, defense, and net rating. Though, not everything is as peachy for the team if you take a closer look at each of their players individually.
There’s one player on the roster that has been underwhelming despite the Heat‘s 11-6 start to the season. And it’s Duncan Robinson. Even though a couple of weeks ago, I discussed his slow start to the season and how it wasn’t anything to worry about, it’s only fair to rethink that position.
Through the first 17 games, Robinson has taken a substantial step back compared to his last two seasons with the Heat. He’s only averaging 10 points and four rebounds per game on 36 percent shooting from the field and 33 percent from 3-point range. He’s also posting a career-worst 9.37 player efficiency rating.
What makes Robinson’s struggles even more glaring is the fact that Tyler Herro is playing so much better in a reserve role for the team. Herro, who could theoretically be inserted to start in Robinson’s place, is averaging 22 points, six rebounds, and four assists per game on 46 percent shooting from the field and 40 percent from 3-point range.
He’s been better than Robinson in nearly every way possible and has been a key cog for the team in crunch time – something that Robinson has failed to do in big moments for the Heat this season.
The big question is whether the Heat should make the switch. And the answer isn’t as easy as looking at the counting stats.
What makes Robinson so important to the Heat’s offense isn’t just his production. Plenty of times, it’s simply the threat of his presence on the court that creates the spacing that the Heat often needs on the floor.
For example, even though Robinson has been flat-out bad to start the season, his presence is reflected through his on/off numbers. When Robinson is on the floor, the Heat has a 111.4 offensive rating, which isn’t far off from their usual 111.7 offensive rating. Defensively, the Heat is better when he’s on the floor compared to off it. Perhaps most importantly, Miami has an 8.8 net rating when he’s on the floor.
Some of that could be attributed to the fact that he’s usually on the floor with other starters, but I don’t think even the threat of his shooting ability should be overlooked.
If the Heat makes the move to swap Herro and Robinson, they have to be sure that there wouldn’t be a negative impact on the good vibes that the team has already created through the first month of the season.
The good news for the Heat is that they have options, with Herro playing at such a high level and with Robinson’s recent history as an offensive threat. The difficulty is whether or not the Heat is willing to make such a drastic move at this point in the season.