The Washington Wizards and their grim future

The Washington Wizards began the 2021-22 NBA season on an impressive 10-3 start, reinvigorating fans after being mediocre the past half-decade. However, after finishing 7-12 over the past 19 games, Washington’s troubling future has reared its ugly head.

In the offseason, the Washington Wizards decided to move on from star point guard Russell Westbrook in a move with the Los Angeles Lakers, acquiring Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and a late first-round pick in exchange. General manager Tommy Sheppard chose to acquire reputable players with lower ceilings compared to younger prospects.

Ultimately, not many teams were probably going to trade for Westbrook considering his monster-sized contract, so Sheppard did the best he could. Unfortunately, this deal failed to move the Wizards out of mediocrity, currently sitting in 6th in the much-improved Eastern Conference.

Despite their above .500 record, their point differential (-2.2) suggests they are a below-average team. They would have little to no chance in a first-round playoff series against the likes of Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Miami, or even Chicago. This has been the case since the team’s 2017 game seven loss to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference semifinals, as they haven’t won a playoff series since.

The team’s largest offseason signing, Spencer Dinwiddie, has gotten off to a disappointing start in Washington, averaging 12.6 points and 5.3 assists on only 38.4 percent shooting from the field as the starting point guard. Ideally, he would act like a respectable secondary option to all-star Bradley Beal, but he has not been able to produce points efficiently as of yet.

Dinwiddie is in the first year of his three-year, $54 million contract. So far, his play has not been able to justify that payday.

The aforementioned Beal is having his own uncharacteristic start to the season, averaging only 23.3 points per game on a horrid 28.3 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Historically, Beal has hovered around 35 percent over the past three years from that same distance at almost seven attempts per game, so expect that number to improve as the season progresses.

Beal’s drop in productivity can be attributed to the Wizards’ various offseason moves, as they now have more mouths to feed on the offensive end. He averaged over 30 points per game in his last two seasons, where he practically got the key to the offense every possession. This year, Washington’s offense is worse when Beal’s on the court, scoring 4.7 points less per 100 possessions compared to other potential lineups.

If the reigning scoring champion player similarly to last season, the Wizards would be in a better spot standings-wise. However, that wouldn’t change the problem with their overall roster construction, as they have no way of contending for a championship in the short term.

Currently, the Wizards are more than $20 million over the salary cap and are projected to have no cap space for next offseason as well. They have five contracts over $13 million per season, with all five of them running through at least next year.

Both Montrezl Harrell and Thomas Bryant are upcoming unrestricted free agents, with this being the last year of both of their contracts. Harrell is having a great season for Washington, averaging 14.5 points on almost 65 percent shooting, while Bryant is recovering from ACL surgery in February.

While they may be able to resign Bryant to a team-friendly deal due to his injury, Harrell will likely want an increase in payday considering his performance. Washington is 11.3 points better per 100 possessions when Montrezl is on the floor, placing him in the 90th percentile of all players. Although attempting to resign Harrell may seem like an obvious choice, Washington would be locking in their core for the foreseeable future, without much cap flexibility.

Additionally, Washington has a slew of young talent, including Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija, and this year’s first-round rookie, Corey Kispert. All have shown promising ability in the league as young wings who can defend, all under the age of 23. Eventually, they will have to be paid after their rookie contracts run out, putting even more money on Washington’s books.

With upcoming rookie extensions, another Bradley Beal contract, and other mid-range deals already being paid for, Washington is setting itself up to be one of the most expensive teams in the league. Problem is, this roster probably isn’t talented enough to have homecourt advantage in any playoff series, barring drastic development from their young talent.

Although they have expressed interest on multiple occasions in keeping him, they should finally bite the bullet and trade franchise-star Bradley Beal, acquiring more youth to formulate a quick rebuild. Washington will likely not be ready to compete when Beal is still in his prime, as he’ll be 29 going into next season.

Furthermore, they should look to sell high on Harrell and KCP, as they both have expiring contracts. It would make more sense to deal them to a contending team in return for picks or prospects, as it will be difficult to re-sign them either way.

The Washington Wizards did a splendid job getting off of the Russell Westbrook contract, but now have to take it one step further – realize their own mediocrity and begin a larger rebuild.