Miami Heat: PJ Tucker and his unfortunate crash to the mean

PJ Tucker’s regression to the mean is hurting the Miami Heat’s offense. 

Over the last couple of weeks, there is plenty to question about the Miami Heat and their ability to successfully live up to the expectation of a No. 1 seed heading into the playoffs.

On the surface, you can question their lack of a superstar, their troubling clutch statistics, and even their durability. However, there’s one specific player that has fallen into a rut that could end up costing them in a big way in the postseason.

And that’s the fall of PJ Tucker.

The regression to the man that Tucker has been subjected to over the last few weeks is extremely troublesome. As a player that was acquired to be a true difference-maker in the postseason, the recent play of Tucker has to be concerning for the Heat.

Up until February 4, that wasn’t the case. In fact, up until then, Tucker was one of the most efficient offensive contributors in the league. Adding that to his strong presence on the defensive side of the ball, a legitimate argument could’ve been made that he was quickly turning into one of the most important players for the Heat.

However, since that point, Tucker has not just been bad. He’s been downright putrid on the offensive side of the court. During that span, the team’s last 19 games, Tucker is averaging six points and six rebounds per game on just 23 percent shooting from 3-point range.

Through the first 50 games of the season, Tucker averaged nine points and six rebounds on 50 percent shooting from the field and 47 percent shooting from 3-point range. He was a player that you had to respect beyond the arc and even in the paint.

This recent skid has thrown a wrench in all that, making the Heat’s spacing that much more complicated. Especially considering that Tucker is part of the starting 5 that already features two other non-shooters in Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler.

And it will only become a bigger problem in the playoffs when the game slows down and possessions become that much more valuable.

Tucker’s regression to the mean couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Heat. There’s not much time for them to figure it out and failing to do so before the playoffs could be exactly what costs this team a chance at making a real run to the NBA Finals.