No. 3: Miami Heat
The Miami Heat have controlled the top spot in the East for the past few months, but are showing signs of concern, losing their last three. They’ve been without Tyler Herro, and while he’s an extremely valuable offensive piece to the team, they shouldn’t have to rely on a 22-year-old sixth man in the regular season.
Miami’s calling card has always been their defense – Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, and P.J. Tucker have led the Heat to a top 4 team in terms of defensive rating. That unit is likely to hold up into the playoffs, as all of them have succeeded in a playoff environment before, being able to guard both the perimeter and in the paint.
However, offensively, their lack of firepower may hold them back. Butler, Herro, and Adebayo are all averaging over 19 a game, but are all relatively inconsistent. Butler is coming off one of the worst performances of his career last playoffs, averaging only 14.5 points per game on 29.7 percent shooting. Miami got swept by the eventual champion Bucks.
With the top two team’s defensive prowess, it will be difficult for Miami to score. If Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo can go on a bubble-esque run, the Heat’s defense will carry them to the Eastern Conference Finals alone. The Heat is asking a lot from players like Herro and Ducan Robinson, who are players more likely to succeed in a regular-season environment than the playoffs due to their defensive deficiencies.
Coach Erik Spoelstra is undoubtedly the best coach in the league, so Miami can count on him to make adequate playoff adjustments in any given series. However, the team’s extraordinary depth and player development have carried them to the number 1 seed thus far, something that’s not as valuable in a playoff setting. When rotations tighten up to seven or eight players, the Heat’s advantage will go by the wayside, with their bench unable to see much playing time.