NBA: A way-too-early look at the 2023 free agency landscape

A way-too-early look at the 2023 NBA free agency landscape. 

As of the opening night of the 2022-23 NBA season, there are a total of 11 teams that can potentially create upwards of $20 million in cap space next summer (2023 free agency class). This is a significant amount because the 2024 free agency class is generally weak and the $20 million number is significantly higher than the mid-level exception, which half of the remaining teams will have at their disposal to add free agents.

Those teams are as follows, with the most amount of space they can accrue. This number is taken from Spotrac and is assuming most non-guaranteed contracts and cap holds are waived and renounced.

• Houston Rockets – $89.6 million
• Orlando Magic – $74.9 million
• San Antonio Spurs –  $74.2 million
• Detroit Pistons – $73.5 million
• Indiana Pacers –  $60.8 million
• Charlotte Hornets – $59.9 million
• Oklahoma City Thunder – $40.6 million
• Los Angeles Lakers – $34.4 million
• Utah Jazz – $32.7 million
• Sacramento Kings – $25.9 million
• Minnesota Timberwolves – $21.2 million

Most of these teams would be considered in the rebuilding phase, so may be less inclined to sign large free-agent deals with veterans and more interested in restricted free agents. It’s also foolish to assume all 11 of these teams will operate as cap teams, some will bring back their own free agents and that will take up a majority if not all of their space.

Let’s take a look at some of the top available free agents.:

Bonafide stars

• James Harden (player option)
• Khris Middleton (player option)
• Kyrie Irving

Both Harden and Middleton seem unlikely to leave their current teams, most likely opting out to re-up on longer-term deals.

Irving as advertised is a wildcard. The Nets and Irving couldn’t work out an extension this summer which leads the public to assume a divorce is going to happen.

The Lakers, Wolves, and maybe the Kings are the only competitive teams with a chance at space. Irving has never played in the Western Conference.

High-end starters

• Myles Turner
• Nikola Vucevic
• Kristaps Porzingis (player option) 
• D’Angelo Russell
• Al Horford
• Harrison Barnes
• Jerami Grant
• Gary Trent Jr. (player option)
• Christian Wood
• Russell Westbrook

There are five centers in this group, all playing on teams not on our cap space list, which means most will re-sign. Turner has been on the trade block since being drafted, if he ends the season with the Pacers he may end up leaving in free agency.

Barnes and Grant as big wings who can defend will be highly valued anywhere regardless of a team’s immediate competition level.

Trent, as the youngest player on this list, on a team where he is buried as the fifth option on offense, may be the wildcard here for the young teams with cap space.

Rotation players

• Bojan Bogdanovic
• Seth Curry
• Josh Hart (player option)
• Dillon Brooks
• Kyle Kuzma (player option)
• Jae Crowder
• Caris LeVert
• Jakob Poeltl

This group is highlighted by a few seasoned specialists and a few young players looking for their third contract.

Kuzma stepped into a big role for the Wizards last year and may be their third-most important player. He also already brings a championship pedigree.

Poeltl has a chance to be the most impactful player on a talent-stricken Spurs roster. Crowder will likely be traded before long and may end up signing an extension with whoever he lands with.

headlining restricted free agents

• Cam Johnson 
• Matisse Thybulle 
• PJ Washington 
• Grant Williams 
• Ayo Dosunmu 

These are the five best free agents coming off of their rookie deals. None of them project as stars or even necessarily high-end starters.

Could these rebuilding teams throw expensive offers their way in hopes the assumed cap spike in a few years makes the gamble worth it?