Miami Heat: 1 extremely concerning trend that could prompt huge change

The Miami Heat has struggled through the first few weeks of the regular season and it’s beginning to look like Tyler Herro may be an issue.

Through the first few weeks of the season, the Miami Heat has been pretty hot and cold on any given night. They’re 7-8 and don’t have a sense of identity or rhythm through the first 15 games of the season.

While it’s pretty impossible to pinpoint one main issue that is plaguing the Heat early on in the year, there is one extremely concerning trend that could be one of the biggest culprits of the team’s overall struggles: Tyler Herro.

In the last five games (which Herro has missed all of), the Heat have been relatively the same team on defense. That should come as no surprise since Max Strus (who is essentially replacing Herro in the starting lineup) isn’t that much of a better defender, if at all. However, something interesting has happened on the offensive side of the ball for the Heat since Herro has been out.

With Herro in the lineup, the Heat is an average offense. However, in the last five games (even though the Heat has lost two of those games), Miami’s offense evolves into a top 5 unit. They also have the 10th-best net rating during that span.

You may say, perhaps that’s just the product of the team playing better. Maybe that’s right. But when we look at Herro’s individual on/off numbers, they are not great.

In fact, of the Heat’s starting 5, Herro has the worst plus/minus net rating for the Heat. Here are the numbers (on/off Net Rating):

• Kyle Lowry – (-1.4)
• Tyler Herro – (-4.1)
• Jimmy Butler – 2.7  
• Caleb Martin – 6.9 
• Bam Adebayo – 6.9

Amongst the Heat’s ~ nine-man rotation, Herro has the second-worst on/off net rating. The only player with the worst on/off net rating is Dewayne Dedmon. Not great company for a player that is expected to make a jump to stardom this season.

So that’s the data. Those are the facts. What now for the Heat?

What’s the resolution for the Miami Heat?

The Heat has a tough situation to navigate through. The numbers clearly show that Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro are two weak parts of the Heat’s starting 5. Together, they’re relatively been a disaster backcourt for the Heat.

But the Heat doesn’t have many options on the table. They can’t bench Herro. That would be a catastrophic move that could stunt Herro’s development. And they can’t bench Lowry; I’m not sure he would accept such a move.

The more and more you think about the Heat’s situation, you can’t help but wonder if this will all lead to a trade.

It would be difficult for the Heat to trade Herro because he’s on what is called a “poison pill” contract after his extension. And I’m not sure there will be teams lining up to take on his contract. With how underwhelming he’s looked this season, if the Heat can trade Lowry it will likely cost an asset.

One thing is clear – the Heat has an issue. And it appears to revolve around Herro and Lowry. But with as many resources that the team has poured into and invested in Herro, this is certainly not the early-season issue the Heat could’ve envisioned or could’ve envied.