Muddle through or blow it up?
With just over a week remaining before a trade deadline bereft of sellers, the Bulls’ pending decision to restart their roster-building process looms as the most consequential leaguewide.
Should Chicago make any of their four veterans available via trade–LaVine, Vucevic, DeRozan, or Alex Caruso–it’s likely that teams would view each as one of, if not the top target in the trade market.
Operating with few alternatives, it isn’t hard to imagine the Bulls pressing their competitors to give up multiple draft assets, including high-quality first-round picks, in exchange for any of their top players. Given the likely selling price, the temptation may even exist for the organization to go all in on “blowing it up,” gutting the roster of its top-line talent in a quest to obtain an array of draft capital that would rival the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The reality, however, is that Chicago would almost certainly experience diminishing returns with each subsequent veteran they made available, as the increase in the player pool at the deadline drives down the expected return on any of them.
Still, the likely haul that the Bulls would accrue as a result of a complete rebuild would be considerable, especially when paired with the chance to retain their first-rounders in 2023 and 2024, that are bound for Orlando unless Chicago ends up with a top-four selection in each year. Should the pair of draft picks remain with the Bulls, they would convey in 2026 and 2027 as second-rounders.
With Chicago sitting only four games under .500 through the 50-game mark, it seems unlikely that they would have an inside track toward the top of the draft this season, even with an exodus of talent; though next year’s pick would remain firmly in play as the Bulls looked for a reset.
The problem for the Bulls is that any realistic course toward attempting to retain their top draft pick in 2024 almost certainly consigns them to fate in which they are picking at the top of the draft in 2025 and beyond.
With tanking a viable option that doesn’t wholly alienate a fanbase, it is doubtful that the Bulls would find a way into the top four of the draft with any of the trio of DeRozan, LaVine, or Vucevic still on the roster. Without them, however, it’s equally unlikely that the franchise would find any quick off-ramp from what is bound to be a lengthy rebuild.
All this leaves Chicago with a single, stark choice: strip the roster of its most valuable pieces in a bid to obtain a bonafide superstar through the draft, no matter how long it takes, or muddle through with a soft reset in the hope that your player development, free-agency, and the trade market sees you through.
Though the latter option may not be quite a radical enough departure from the team’s current failed iteration to excite the fan base, it isn’t without its merits.
Consider that though Chicago is a mere +.6 when LaVine, DeRozan, and Vucevic share the floor this season, the trio ranked in the 86th percentile of all lineups in the NBA last year when paired with the passing acumen of Lonzo Ball. Add Caruso to the mix, and Chicago was a bonkers +20.6. Even while some of those numbers are undoubtedly inflated due to the small sample size–before injuries torpedoed the Bulls’ once-promising campaign–there’s no arguing that the starting lineup Chicago had built for itself, had the talent, and nerve, to compete for home-court advantage in the playoffs.
While the Bulls would be remiss to stand pat waiting for the return of a lineup that hasn’t been fully healthy in over a calendar year, there’s also a reasonable argument to be made against Karnisovas and company throwing it out wholesale.
The question, as always, is what precisely the Bulls should do.
Faced with the choice of giving DeMar DeRozan a four-year contract extension worth up to $155 million, it may be prudent for Chicago to move aggressively in seeking to offload the 33-year-old forward. While DeRozan works with a bevy of moves that ensures he’ll be an above-average scorer even late into his career, a max extension–which DeRozan’s camp will almost certainly demand–would eat up more than half the projected cap space the Bulls could create for themselves in 2024, and make it incredibly difficult for them to sign a max player in space.
Instead, Chicago could flip DeRozan for assets, hope that LaVine entirely moves past the aftereffects of his knee surgery, and put themselves in play as a free-agent destination next summer. They might even get lucky with a return to health for Ball and the continued development of Patrick Williams as a real offensive focal point, thus raising the ceiling on their roster in a meaningful way.
While that scenario is definitely on the optimistic side of things, it isn’t pie-in-the-sky, wishful thinking. And even if things don’t quite play out that way, the Bulls would still retain the core of a squad with a genuine chance to compete for a top-six seed every year with the right pieces around it, which is still incredibly valuable for a franchise!
Arturas Karnisovas joined the franchise hoping to stabilize the Bulls and finally elevate Chicago back into contention. Three years later, he and the team may have to settle for just stability.