Victor Wembanyama: What to expect from the NBA’s next great phenom

Victor Wembanyama’s potential as an offensive engine

The strongest or most intriguing part of Wembanyama’s game is his skill as an offensive player. He is great at all of the traditional big-man skills. However, what makes him a generational prospect instead of just a great one is his ability to create offense not just for himself but also for his teammates.

Last season, Wembanyama averaged 27.1 points per 40 minutes on 57.5% true shooting. His per-minute scoring rate was awesome, ranking 9th (97th percentile) among all prospects since 2019. However, his efficiency was not quite as good, and it was quite average for an NBA prospect.

Some people may view this as a significant question mark, but there are reasons for his underwhelming scoring efficiency. For starters, he doesn’t play the game like a traditional big man. If he did, this would be a massive problem. Instead, he plays more like a guard or a wing, as he handles the ball on the perimeter a lot and takes a high volume of jump shots.

He also takes a lot of difficult shots, whether they be off the dribble or heavily contested, and this is common for talented young players with high usage rates. Again, some people may see this as a problem, but I do not. I don’t think he takes hard, contested shots because he’s unable to generate easy shots. I just think he’s trying to test the limits of his scoring prowess.

Nevertheless, his ultra-high scoring rate at a young age in a professional basketball league shows that he can put the ball in the basket at an incredibly high level. Not only that, the way he scores is incredibly valuable as he is a great rim finisher, can shoot the ball effectively, and can create shots off the dribble.

Wembanyama isn’t just a good scorer, though. He’s also a solid passer.

In 2022, he had an assist rate of 14.5% and an assist-to-turnover ratio of 0.88, both marks ranking 77th percentile and 63rd percentile, respectively, among big man prospects since 2019. These are really solid numbers for a big man and give him an 80th percentile score among big man prospects in my total passing metric, which combines college production and height to estimate a player’s passing ability.

I agree with my numbers that Wembanyama is a good but not great passer. He is very capable of making simple passes and setting up teammates for open shots, but he doesn’t throw a ton of skip passes, and he doesn’t throw a high volume of difficult passes like Nikola Jokic. Still, I think he will provide some value as a secondary passer in the NBA.

Wembanyama has really good production as a scorer and passer, giving him a 98th percentile score among big man prospects in my creation metric, which measures a player’s ability to create shots for themselves and their teammates.

The fact that he is such a good scorer and passer means he has the chance to be a primary initiator in the NBA. This is what everyone looks for in the draft, but it’s rare for a prospect to showcase the skills to be a number one option in the NBA. Based on the film and the numbers, I believe Wembanyama can.