Victor Wembanyama: What to expect from the NBA’s next great phenom
By Ryan McCrary
Victor Wembanyama’s elite shooting upside
Victor Wembanyama is an incredible offensive player with a ton of upside as a scorer and passer. However, he’s also a really good shooter, which further increases his value as an offensive player.
Last season, Wembaynama shot just 27.4% from three, so it may seem ridiculous to say that he has the potential to be an elite shooter, or at least an elite shooter for a big man, in the NBA. However, I believe there are many reasons to believe he can be an exceptional long-distance shooter moving forward.
For starters, it’s important to understand that a prospect’s three-point percentage prior to joining the NBA is not the best indicator of what their three-point percentage will be in the NBA. The best indicators are three-point volume and free throw percentage.
In 2022, Wembanyama attempted 6.3 threes per forty minutes and shot 82.2% from the free-throw line. He also had a three-point rate of 32%, meaning 32% of his field goal attempts came from behind the arc.
These numbers are really good and allowed him to rank in the 91st percentile among big-man prospects since 2019 in my three-point shooting metric. He also ranked in the 80th percentile among bigs in my spacing metric, which essentially measures a player’s three-point volume and their ability to stretch out opposing defenses due to their confidence as long-distance shooters.
Wemby’s film sees eye to eye with the numbers and shows that Wemby has the potential to be a game-breaking shooter at some point. Last season, he shot a lot of threes, and he displayed remarkable versatility as a shooter, hitting shots off the catch, off movement, and off the dribble. He also showed a lot of range in his jump shot, sometimes hitting threes from well beyond the three-point line. This is not normal for a seven-footer.
Since Wembanyama is such a good shooter, he will likely be a valuable offensive player, even if he isn’t a high-level creator at the next level. His shooting ability will allow him to thrive off the ball, and this gives him an extremely high floor on offense because he doesn’t need to dominate the ball to extract value.