It’s Jimmy Butler or die for Miami Heat heading into Game 7

Jimmy Butler’s performances in the coming Game 7 versus the Celtics will dictate whether or not the Heat blow the league’s first 3-0 lead.

We all remember how Jimmy Butler performed in Round 1 of these playoffs, as the Miami Heat became the fifth-ever 8-seed to defeat a 1-seed. In the series, Butler averaged an incredible 37.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists on an absurd 67.1 TS% (59.7/44.4/70.8 shooting splits), only reinforcing that Playoff Jimmy Butler is a thing.

A month after the conclusion of that series, Butler and the Heat now find themselves in a hole, yet that hole is not because they are behind in the series. Their hole comes from the fact that they have lost three straight games after initially taking a commanding 3-0 lead in the series. Now, they must finish business in Boston with seemingly all momentum on the side of the Celtics.

There’s no doubt that the Heat are having an all-time collapse, and perhaps the biggest blame for it may be on Jimmy Butler. Note the difference in Butler’s performance between Games 1-3 (wins) and Games 4-6 (losses):

• Games 1-3 (wins): 26.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 6.3 APG, 3.7 SPG, 54.3 TS% (46.0/33.3/90.0 splits)
• Games 4-6 (losses): 22.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.3 SPG, 50.7 TS% (36.5/30.0/81.3 splits)

In the best opportunity to end the series in Game 6, Butler had a disaster of a performance. Sure, 24 points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists look like a good performance, but when factoring in the 5-21 (23.8%) shooting, his lowest mark of the postseason. He played lousy defense for a solid chunk of the game, as he didn’t display his typical activity or defensive playmaking.

It really was a must-win game. A return to a rowdy Boston crowd for a Game 7 would be quite unideal, so finishing it in Miami had to be preferred. Additionally, the Celtics shot 7-35 (20%) from beyond the arc, and it’s hard to see them shooting so poorly again in the pending win-or-go-home game in Boston. The game was there for Miami to close the series and head to the Finals, but the failure to box out forces Miami to steal one in Boston.

Simply put, Butler is the one who last game was on. Miami’s superstar wasn’t a superstar, and that will not be the recipe for success in the postseason. Sure, it’s easy to blame the Heat’s rebounding and effort in the closing seconds, but a better performance by Butler would have never put Miami in that position, and Butler acknowledged that in the post-game press conference.

Here’s a breakdown of Butler’s Game 6 and an analysis of what he needs to do better in the do-or-die game on Monday night.