It’s Jimmy Butler or die for Miami Heat heading into Game 7

Boston has perfectly countered what Jimmy Butler wants to get to

Jimmy Butler has only been assisted on 15% of his makes in this series, as opposed to 34% for the entirety of the postseason. Perhaps the Heat could get him moving off of the ball more and create looks in the midrange for him that don’t require so many dribbles.

The Celtics have shown a willingness to switch off-ball actions, so Butler could still find his matchups with White or Smart and try to get into his mid-post offense in a different way. Additionally, he should be used a screener more (not ghost screens), which has been very effective in the small sample size that he has done it.

Butler is shooting 7.2 shots per game off of 7+ dribbles (up from 5.1 in the first two rounds) in this series and 32.6% off of those (down from 47.1% in the first two rounds). It’s clear that the Celtics are stopping him from getting to his spots and causing an inefficient Butler. The aggression and decisiveness that Butler had earlier in the postseason aren’t quite there. Perhaps he may still be hampered by his ankle injury, but it’s impossible to know.

The two most notable parts of the Celtics’ defense on Butler have been (1) how they defend his post-ups and (2) their refusal to bite on his pump fakes. On post-ups, they bring an extra defender later in the possession to alter Butler’s shot. They had a pattern of sending the help right on Butler’s spin.

Butler needs to start rising up for his pull-up jumpers with confidence since he knows that his pump fakes won’t be working. This is the biggest factor in the lattermost game of the series: Can Butler make his pull-up jumpers?

Additionally, can he actually finish at the rim? The potentially wrong hand-tracked stat of missed layups or putbacks for Butler was five in Game 6, and in the series, he’s shooting an atrocious 52% at the rim.