While the core around Giannis is quite talented, there is a lot of money tied up into them for their age.
Khris Middleton
Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Robin (or the Batman if you ask ESPN’s Kendrick Perkins), struggled with injuries this past season, only playing 38 total games (33 regular season games, five postseason games). For a good chunk of the regular season, he was on a minutes restriction, coming off of the bench, or both.
In the Bucks’ lone playoff series versus the Heat, Middleton performed quite well. He averaged 23.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists on 60.0 TS% (46.5/40.6/86.7 splits), way up from his regular season averages that were lower due to the aforementioned reasons. He looked like his pre-injury self as a shot creator and shot maker, routinely knocking down those tough mid-range jumpers that we NBA fans were so accustomed to seeing during the 2021 championship.
Seeing his offense at the level is incredibly promising, but his defense was its worst in years. After being comfortably a pretty good defender for years, he was seen slower on his feet in the playoffs, and his screen navigation wasn’t quite amazing. Jimmy Butler routinely attacked him during that Round 1 series, as Middleton’s injuries must have hampered his defensive ability.
Middleton, who will be 32 years old when next season begins, just signed a 3-year, $102 million deal to remain with Milwaukee. When Middleton is healthy and performing, this is a fine contract for him, but I am worried about this deal. At age 35 in the 2025-26 season, Middleton will be paid $36.5 million; I honestly could see that being a contract that doesn’t look so amazing, especially if these injury issues persist. It feels like a lot of money locked up in uncertainty.
With that said, Middleton’s game and ability to knock down difficult shots should age pretty well, but the defense certainly worries me and is something to watch at the start of next season.
Jrue Holiday
Holiday was the piece that officially put the Bucks over the top in 2021. His two-way play as being a tenacious point-of-attack defender and all-around offensive game – the ability to get downhill, knock down pull-ups, space the floor, make plays, and be a legitimate pick-and-roll ball-handler – was the key to the lock for Milwaukee, as in exactly what they were missing.
A full two seasons later, Holiday provides the same two-way value. He is arguably the league’s best point-of-attack defender and still brings elite offensive value in the regular season, as he truly has few flaws in his offensive game. There really isn’t much that he is bad at offensively. All major advanced metrics, such as Basketball Index’s LEBRON, 538’s RAPTOR, DRIP, DPM, EPM, and LA-RAPM have him ranked, at the worst, at the 93rd percentile.
The reason why the regular season was italicized is because Holiday is unfortunately a playoff dropper on the offensive end. Over the last three postseasons combined (40 games), he has averaged 17.9 points per game on 47.6 TS% (39.6/30.4/75.0 splits), just terrible efficiency. His efficiency in the mid-range and from beyond the arc has dropped from each respective regular season, and the only season that his efficiency at the rim didn’t drop was this season.
It’s hard to act like this isn’t a concern for Milwaukee, as it certainly is. The thing is this, though: because of his defensive impact and playmaking, the Bucks are still roughly 12 points better per 100 possessions with Holiday on the floor compared to off of it. They need him. A large part of why his usage doesn’t drop in the postseason to counteract his efficiency dip isn’t only because of his playmaking ability but also because of Antetokounmpo’s overall offensive limitations and doubts of his ability to take on a larger – near heliocentric – role.
It’s easy to say that Jimmy Butler had the series of his life against Holiday, but that doesn’t consider that Holiday did a better job on Butler, who was just on another godly level, than any of his Bucks teammates. It isn’t Holiday’s fault that Butler was just on one and simply refused to miss.
But Holiday’s getting older. He’s quietly already 33 years old and is owed $72.3 million over the next two seasons. He’s worth that contract, but his $36.2 million per year is just a big hit on the Bucks’ salary. Holiday has publicly stated that he plans to retire once this contract is up, too. If he truly has two years left in the NBA, the Bucks should be trying to win immediately because of his value. It doesn’t seem likely that he’s traded because of this, so they shouldn’t expect any return.
Brook Lopez
The last member of the Bucks’ core four: Lopez. During his Milwaukee tenure, Lopez has reinvented himself from earlier in his career, where he was primarily a post-up player and was actually one of the league’s best in such context. In Milwaukee, however, he has become something of a 3-and-D big. He still has the ability to punish defenders in the post, but his main role offensively is to space the floor for Antetokounmpo, and he has become among the league’s best defenders.
He finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting this past season, as his ability to contest shots at the rim and make an impact on them is simply amazing. Opponents shot 13.4% worse at the rim with Lopez as the closest defender, and there’s a serious argument to be made that Lopez is the best drop coverage big in the league. He was my DPOY pick.
At age 35, Lopez just had the best season of his career. His 15.9 points and 6.7 rebounds per game in the box score may not compare to being a legitimate 20 points-per-game scorer early in his career, but when factoring in his absurdly impactful defense and career-high efficiency at 63.0 TS% (53.1/37.4/78.4 splits), it was just an awesome season for the former Stanford standout.
He had an awesome postseason, scoring 19.0 points per game on a 65.3 TS%, and maintained his high-level paint defense. Despite his age, he’s a high-impact player, which is why he was just signed to a 2-year, $48 million deal. It might be slightly large for him, but it’s a short deal. Plus, Lopez is just an awesome fit here that I truly don’t hate the contract. With that said, as mentioned with Holiday, that’s tying up a lot of money to a very old core, which hurts the rest of the roster.